The Cunning Realist makes the timely argument, working from this Rumsfeldian "epiphany."  Read the whole thing, but here’s a quote:

" For Rumsfeld to try to wish away an overwhelmingly indigenous resistance as if it were no more than a stray neighborhood dog is not only the height of hubris, it’s utterly reckless. It also indicates that Rumsfeld lives in the same sort of dangerous bubble as Bush."