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Always Wrong: Predicting Iranian War and Weapons
Posted By John Glaser On August 10, 2012 @ 9:23 am In News | Comments Disabled
Stephen Walt has a piece up  at Foreign Policy cataloguing the persistent predictions of a US or Israeli war on Iran, which always turn out to be dead wrong. My favorite bit:
In September 2010, for example, The Atlantic published a cover story by Jeffrey Goldberg (“The Point of No Return”) based on interviews with dozens of Israeli officials. Goldberg concluded that the odds of an Israeli attack by July 2012 were greater than 50 percent. Fortunately, this forecast proved to be as accurate as most of Goldberg’s other writings about the Middle East.
The predictions from the elite media figures and journalists typically occur in tandem with direct threats from Israeli officials, of course. The constant bluster is ironic, considering how strongly it influences Iran towards getting the bomb (Iran has cleverly chosen “strategic ambiguity” instead).
But Walt’s piece reminded me of this timeline from the Christian Science Monitor back in November of last year listing  official warnings of an imminent Iranian nuke for about thirty years now. According to western intelligence, they’ve pretty much always been on the verge of having the bomb. Below is a summary:
Yet, in the shadow of Ehud Barak’s bluster yesterday , people are still gullible enough to believe these clowns.
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URL to article: http://antiwar.com/blog/2012/08/10/always-wrong-predicting-iranian-war-and-weapons/
URLs in this post:
 has a piece up: http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/10/voices_prophesying_war
 cover story : http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/
 listing: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1108/Imminent-Iran-nuclear-threat-A-timeline-of-warnings-since-1979/Earliest-warnings-1979-84
 Ehud Barak’s bluster yesterday: http://antiwar.com/blog/2012/08/09/did-barak-leak-new-us-intel-on-irans-nuclear-program
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