Goodbye, Pax Americana

John Glaser, December 10, 2012

By 2030, the US will no longer be the global hegemonic power, according to the US National Intelligence Council.

In a report called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, the office of the Director of National Intelligence concludes that, “In terms of the indices of overall power – GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment – Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined.” And “with the rapid rise of other countries, the ‘unipolar moment’ is over and Pax Americana—the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast winding down.”

Most notably since the end of WWII, the US has been pursuing global dominance through force and coercion. This project got a boost with the end of the Cold War – that so-called unipolar moment – in which the one great power rival Washington faced abruptly fell apart. The geo-political implications of this prompted euphoria among crafters of US foreign policy. In 1992, the Defense Department circulated what came to be known as the Wolfowitz Doctrine, after then Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitz. “America’s political and military mission in the post-cold-war era,” the New York Times reported, “will be to ensure that no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territories of the former Soviet Union.” America’s mission, read the DoD document, would be “convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests.”

The primary consequence of unrivaled power and dominance on the world stage is that the US could perpetrate savagery on other states and peoples with hardly any accountability or threat of retaliation. It is comparable to what happens when an authoritarian gains unquestioned power over a single country: no checks or balances, no responsibility for grave transgressions, etc.

Now, because of a mixture of hubris, profligacy, emerging economies, and the rise of non-state actors, “the post-war US approach to strategy is rapidly becoming insolvent and unsustainable,” concluded a recent CSIS report. In some ways, Washington is taking this news kicking and screaming, desperately boosting US military presence in the Middle East and Asia. But “If Washington continues to cling to its existing role on the premise that the international order depends upon it, the result will be increasing resistance, economic ruin, and strategic failure,” according to CSIS.




32 Responses to “Goodbye, Pax Americana”

  1. There is the real possibility that, unlike the fall of the Soviets, the United States will go quietly into the night. The citizens of the U.S.S.R. knew their leaders were inept and corrupt as was the entire system ("we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us"). Not so for the U.S. Much of the citizenry believes the hubristic P.R. that the government puts out ("USA, USA, We're Number 1, We're Number 1") to such a degree that they will violently hold fast to that self-delusional fantasy long after the implosion of this unworkable system based on fiat money and conceit.

    I fear it won't be pretty.

  2. Oops, that should be "will NOT go quietly"

  3. By 2030, the US will no longer be the global hegemonic power, according to the US National Intelligence Council.

    2030? It appears that there are some highly delusional optimists at the U.S. National Intelligence [nope!] Council. They've overestimated the situation by a good ten or fifteen years.

  4. More and more countries see the US deliberately printing vast quantities of dollars to bail out the corrupt TBTF banksters, making their holdings worthless. So they will trying to break away from the dollar fiat currency. Once the momentum gains, goodbye US – what will your paper be worth? How will Walmart buy the consumer crap that keeps the populace sedated? As mark said, it won't be pretty.

  5. I think of it as snow on the mountain…… It just never stops snowing dollars……. Sometimes it snows slower or faster…. and it even stops snowing sometimes….. but the snow on the mountain keeps getting deeper… Every ten dollar bill that some waiter in Dacca got in 1983 and put under his mattress that is still there is part of the snow load on this mountain of created money…. Some day, and not so far away, there will be a shot, cough, perhaps a sneeze or a miniscule tremor….. and in very short order… as in AVALANCHE ….all the snow on the mountain will be down in the valley…………….. That is how I see the inevitable run on the paper empire's currency…. After that …everything the (think USSR) empire wants to buy or have done will require special arrangements …. and payment in something of value… not dollars… Tax collection will be devastated…. Federal income tax will become empires lost wet dream. All payments in to the Federal Government will cease. Some states will join other countries, alignments or local blocks of like minded states… The USSR and Yugoslavia will happen to the USA… What will happen to Washington DC…??? It will be near instantly transformed into Detroit…… Newark in the post political wasteland there featuring copious armed gangs of robbers and packs of wild pit bulls… on a good day…….

    We are mired in the graveyard of empires….now, and the grim reaper of imperial undertakings is coming for our currency and then our sovereignty…!!!

  6. The peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union will be looked upon by future generations as a minor miracle. The subsequent economic rape of Russia by 'Chicago School' economic hit-men as a tremendous waste and betrayal of that potential.

    Russia survived Hitler and Stalin and still had enough basic humanity not to drown the globe in nuclear fire, while America is basically a new Atlantis but has become so riddled with protestant fundamentalism, ''bread-and-circuses' politics and lust-mord that I'm far more worried about the USA's massive stockpile of nuclear than Iran getting a singular one.

  7. If only our President had gone to the east coast before the hurricane a couple of weeks ago, instead of sending underlings. He could have stood in the surf near the City on a Hill and the storm tide would have receded so that we would not need to be subjected to pessimistic articles such as this one. Amen.- Signed, Boobus

  8. The Director of National Intelligence is stupid and doesn't know what "pax" means. Pax means peace in Latin. It does not mean hegemony. For instance, "Pax Romana" refers to a period of peace in the Roman empire over the first two centuries A.D. "Pax Americana" would denote a period in which the U.S. did not fight many wars (and hence any reference to this mythical period is nonsensical). The term would not refer to a period of American hegemony. Amazing ignorance on the part of the chief of "intelligence," as well as John Glaser, I might add, for taking this ridiculous phrasing and running with it as if it made any sense whatsoever.

  9. i somehow agree with you. I think the 2030 time table is so exaggerated. I would think by 2015 to 2016 at the latest. Maybe the america of 1990 if we have it today could last till 2030 but I am certain that in 5 years max america is gone. enjoy it while it's still around, i myself I am looking to relocate.

  10. yes Pax does mean peace however it is now used synonymously to represent hegemonic power because rome never knew peace even in period when legions were not raping other lands, rome was still having border wars hence the Hadrian wall and alike all over the empire. Read Gideon's rise and fall of roman empire.

  11. When there are no combatants big or bad enough to threaten the resident bully, there is peace in the neighborhood. Just don't expectto get to school with your lunch money.

  12. Let em get this straight: Since the 9/11 inside job (Muslim boogie-man) America’s (Israel’s) foreign policy (AFRICOM) has been about disrupting and supplanting Chinese (Asia) advances in trade through out Africa and the world. Even though, at the same time, the banking cartel (Fed) sells billions of Treasurys to China, creating a huge unsustainable budget deficit that enables the US military in its fight against…China.

    Meanwhile, US-based global transnational corporations are, out-sourcing jobs to China that, along with the bank bail-outs and resulting austerity cuts, have destroyed the American middle-class. Further, the US military is being destroyed in the central Asian “graveyard of empires”, while replacement parts used in the US military machines are being counterfeited in China!?. To make matters worse, in the wake of the contrived economic debacle, America is selling off its infrastructure to…China?! Now, after 11 years of the eternal war-on-terror™, the 9/11 pretext to invade Afghanistan, to steal its resources and re-nergize the drug trade, China is now being allowed to extract oil in Afghanistan?!

    Can someone tell me that this does not add up to a plan to destroy America, destroy the western world and replace it with the presumed Rothschild/Soros NWO economy, that has China as its contrived leader?

  13. Let em get this straight: Since the 9/11 inside job (Muslim boogie-man) America's (Israel's) foreign policy (AFRICOM) has been about disrupting and supplanting Chinese advances in trade through out Africa and the world. Even though, at the same time, the banking cartel (Fed) sells billions of Treasurys to China, creating a huge unsustainable budget deficit that enables the US military in its fight against…China.

    Meanwhile, US-based global transnational corporations are, out-sourcing jobs to China that, along with the bank bail-outs and resulting austerity cuts, have destroyed the American middle-class. Further, the US military is being destroyed in the central Asian "graveyard of empires", while replacement parts used in the US military machines are being counterfeited in China!?. To make matters worse, in the wake of the contrived economic debacle, America is selling off its infrastructure to…China?! Now, after 11 years of the eternal war-on-terror™, the 9/11 pretext to invade Afghanistan, to steal its resources and re-nergize the drug trade, China is now being allowed to extract oil in Afghanistan?!

    Can someone tell me that this does not add up to a plan to destroy America, destroy the western world and replace it with the presumed Rothschild/Soros NWO economy, that has China as its contrived leader?

  14. Russia survived Hitler and Stalin and still had enough basic humanity not to drown the globe in nuclear fire, while America is basically a new Atlantis but has become so riddled with protestant fundamentalism, ''bread-and-circuses' politics and lust-mord that I'm far more worried about the USA's massive stockpile of nuclear than Iran getting a singular one.

  15. an emperor saved Rome just saying

  16. I love republic and the freedom that's supposed to come with and id love to see it prosper but rome needs and emporer

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