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Iran War Weekly – February 3, 2013

Posted By Angela Keaton On February 4, 2013 @ 11:01 am In Iran | Comments Disabled

Per Frank Brodhead’s Iran War Weekly [1]:

The renewed negotiations appear (underline, appear) to have been jumpstarted by Vice President Biden’s announcement at Munich that the United States was willing to meet with Iran if serious negotiations were possible. Iran has long insisted that direct negotiations with the United States was the key to resolving the many disputes between the two countries, of which Iran’s nuclear program is only one. Whether Biden’s statement represents a post-election readiness of the Obama administration to negotiate seriously with Iran remains to be seen.

Just as it was impossible for the Obama administration to make any diplomatic moves toward Iran prior to the November election, it will be very unlikely that Iran’s domestic politics will allow much flexibility on its nuclear positions before their June election. In the good/useful reading below I’ve linked several articles that reflect the fierce political struggles among what used to be considered Iran’s “conservatives,” who, now that there are no longer “reformers” or “liberals” on the scene, have established the main fracture in the Iranian political elite between “traditionalists” and “populists” (e.g. Ahmadinejad). It is hard to say whether the growing dominance of the “traditionalists” will make a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 more likely.

While diplomatic doors are cautiously opening, Israel’s attack on Syria last week cracks open the door to war with Iran. As noted below, Iran’s recent statement that it would consider an attack on Syria to be an attack on itself was quickly followed by Israel’s attack on what it claimed to be Syrian weapons bound for Hezbollah. Whether through accident or design, Israeli military action against Syria that draws in Iran would of course obligate the United States to also attack Iran, with calamitous results.

Please read the rest of this issue of Iran War Weekly at WarIsaCrime.org [2].


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URL to article: http://antiwar.com/blog/2013/02/04/iran-war-weekly-february-3-2013/

URLs in this post:

[1] Iran War Weekly: http://warisacrime.org/blog/46383

[2] Iran War Weekly at WarIsaCrime.org: http://warisacrime.org/content/iran-war-weely-february-3-2013

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