Why Obama’s Chemical Weapons ‘Red Line’ in Syria Is Bogus

John Glaser, April 25, 2013

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After months of being reluctant to address it, the White House today announced it now believes the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has used chemical weapons in its bloody, two-year civil war.

“Our intelligence community does asses with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent Sarin,” the administration said in a letter.

This seems to violate President Obama’s “red line,” triggering some unspecified action presumed to be military in nature. Commentators are now saying the likelihood of a direct US military intervention is greater than ever. While it’s not clear whether that’s true, this talk about a “red line” is bogus.

Obama’s ‘Red Line’ Has Shifted Before

Last year, President Obama outlined what would be a “red line” for his administration, beyond which arguments against going to war in Syria would lose their weight. In August 2012 he said, “A red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized.”

And then in December when reports came out about the Assad regime “moving around” stockpiles of chemicals, with some analysts saying they were being mixed and possibly weaponized, the Obama administration stayed silent.

“Mr. Obama’s ‘red line’ appears to have shifted,” The New York Times reported. “His warning against ‘moving’ weapons has disappeared from his public pronouncements,” being replaced with a “new warning” that “if Mr. Assad makes use of those weapons, presumably against his own people or his neighbors, he will face unspecified consequences.”

The Obama administration has consistently noted the overwhelming costs of military action in Syria. The “red line” is just an obligatory warning meant to make them seem concerned about humanitarian suffering and to maintain the credibility of their threats of war. It has proven malleable before, and the administration could just as easily back out of it again.

Chemical Weapons Are Not a Game Changer

The supposed line that chemical weapons cross is almost entirely fictional. Consider Bilal Y. Saab, Executive Director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, on why Obama’s supposed red line on the use of chemical weapons “lacks credibility.”

Why has the United States drawn a red line here and not elsewhere?

Obama’s words could reflect a humanitarian concern and a moral responsibility to prevent the further loss of life in Syria. Yet the president has not reacted forcefully to the tens of thousands who have already perished without a single poison being used. Chemical weapons are considered weapons of mass destruction, and if used effectively, could kill in the thousands. But so can fighter jets, helicopters, tanks and artillery—and they already have.

Indeed, chemical weapons hold a special place in the international psyche, but they are no more a threat to civilian life really than what has already been going on in Syria. If too much mass death were really the trigger for US intervention, why wasn’t the line drawn at 10,000? 30,000? UN estimates go as high as 70,000 dead. Any of these figures could have been used by the administration as a last straw, but there hasn’t been any intervention.

Obama Sees the Military Options as Too Costly

US military officials have been quick to point out the costs of war in Syria. A year ago, White House spokesman Jay Carney told a press conference, “We do not believe that militarization, further militarization of the situation in Syria at this point is the right course of action. We believe that it would lead to greater chaos, greater carnage.”

“We do nobody a service when we leap before we look, where we…take on things without having thought through all the consequences of it,” Obama said in a January 2013 interview with CBS. “We are not going to be able to control every aspect of every transition and transformation” in conflicts around the world, he added.

“In a situation like Syria,” he said in a separate interview with The New Republic, “I have to ask, can we make a difference in that situation? Would a military intervention have an impact? How would it affect our ability to support troops who are still in Afghanistan? What would be the aftermath of our involvement on the ground? Could it trigger even worse violence or the use of chemical weapons? What offers the best prospect of a stable post-Assad regime?”

And of the humanitarian rationale: “How do I weigh tens of thousands who’ve been killed in Syria,” he said, “versus the tens of thousands who are currently being killed in the Congo?”

In Senate testimony earlier this month, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said “military intervention at this point could hinder humanitarian relief operations. It could embroil the United States in a significant, lengthy, and uncertain military commitment. Unilateral military action could strain other key international partnerships, as no international or regional consensus on supporting armed intervention now exists. And finally, military intervention could have the unintended consequence of bring the United States into a broader regional conflict or proxy war.”

The truth is, the US lacks feasible military options. A no-fly zone is likely to put more civilians at risk, and bombing the chemical stockpiles would be about as bad as Assad unleashing them on his own targets. If the US were to move in with ground forces to secure the weapons, it would take at least 75,000 troops, and any limited mission to secure the weapons would lend itself to mission creep and eventually turn into regime change with no viable interim government, which would then turn into a long and bloody occupation costing hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars as it did in Iraq. Finally, the intervention would lack both domestic and international legal legitimacy. This doesn’t even get me started on the far-reaching geo-political consequences.

Maybe the Obama administration will be goaded into war in Syria because of pressure from European allies (who won’t be doing the heavy lifting themselves) and from rabid interventionists in Congress of the John McCain type. But US reluctance thus far should temper fears that such a scenario is imminent.




49 Responses to “Why Obama’s Chemical Weapons ‘Red Line’ in Syria Is Bogus”

  1. Ummm Hmmm…

    Needless to say, the so-called "news team" here at AW.C…

    http://pmdb.poiz.net/images/MPW-3277.jpg

    …has completely 'dropped the ball' on this one…

    Glaser…this whole "red line" is bogus because the 'Assad Regime' has never used the so-called 'chemical weapons' in the first place…it's that simple Johnny…

  2. You forgot to add that Syria's military is a bit more capable than Libya's or Iraq's.

  3. I don't believe a word of ths crap. Obama is worse than Bush. This becomes more and more clear.

    They really seem to think (and I fear they are right) that the public again will believe another WMD-lie to start another war of aggression in Arabia.

  4. [...] Chemical Weapons ‘Red Line’ in Syria is Bogus [...]

  5. wether you are gassed via artillery or blown to pieces with explosives war is savage. this whole new story smells like a weak backdoor attempt to deal with assad especially now that his forces have put a string of military victories together in the past two months. basically I think the west has realized that assad has greater support amung his people than the lies the msm spread. its the rebels who are backed by the west who cannot seem to win. I believe obama and his stooges in the europe, turkey and the gcc have come to relaize if they solve assad soon…hey may win this war. if america was sincere it would have started regime change with those disgusting savages that run the house of saude and qatar etc. I truly had great hopes for Obama when he was elected but he is proving to be a complete moron of a leader. the terrorists that are being grown and trained in syria will eventually turn their heads like the snakes they are and bight the west. america is literally raising its future enemies. I was born a muslim of african descent and have since rejected that which was forced upon my people at the tip of a sword. the west should do what the arabs do….allow you to hide your religion in your home but the society you live in should be 100% Christian. otherwise you are slowly turning your countries into the shitholes we muslims flee from.

  6. I think you are correct in your assessment, John.

  7. Look people: the main idea regarding Middle East and Central Asia wealth (natural resources) is for USA and some European country to occupy the entire area from Lebanon to Afghanistan or even Pakistan.., the origin of the idea is from Paul Wolfowitz, the architect of Balkan war is Madeline Albright, the architect of Syrian war is Hillary Clinton and Obama following the Paul Wolfowitz, George w. Bush the Saudis, Wahhabis Salafis that are helped by EU and us government during USSR occupation of Afghanistan.., nothing has changed in that regard.., but the fact that a cultural, political and economic unity has been established between, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Russia and China is whats bothering these regimes.., USA government can not see such unity, they see it as a threat to their economic interests, so as Europeans needs to steal more of the people's wealth by stealing more of people's natural resources from all over.., for USA being able to continue with its world economic domination they need to have this war to brake that unity and doing so they or in this case israel can come up with all kind of nonsense as such accusation.

    There is a war in Syria.., conducted mainly by terrorism from all over Europe and Qatar, Saudi Arabia is the main supporter of these terrorist organizations.., Jordan, Turkish and other regimes are sucked into this war because their political existence depends on Syrian war.., beside that all other news are nothing but nonsense and not even worthy of reading them. Syrian government will never use chemical against their own people or other nation.., because they don't need to…, they don't have any interests to occupy or start a war anywhere.., they dont need to start a shock and ow killing million of people…, on the other hand.., it is regimes like USA, Europe and Israel that will lie because they have a interests and that is to safguard their system in vulture capitalism.

  8. Indeed. antiwar.com is losing credibility faster than Alex Jones.

  9. Mojo is correct, people and Antiwar.com.

    The clear objective is to take over and dominate the region and its wealth.

    Everything else is to that end.

    But much of this latest atrocity propaganda appears to have originated in Britain, a video surfaced this morning of patients being carried in to hospital and by an amazing co-incident a reporter from the London Times was visiting to witness it.

    By a similar coincidence David Cameron, our prime minister with huge problems at home, happened to be doing a brekfast TV interview, so could comment on it on TV.

  10. I think you are absolutely right. Syria has no ambition of becoming the world's policeman. It has no ambition to rule the world, to establish a New World Order, or Pax Syriana. Furthermore, European allies have played their part in assisting the US in its aspirations to rule the world, to establish a New World Order, and Pax Americana. Why? Because they are all controlled by the same financail cabal headed by Rothschild-Rockefeller dynasties.

  11. EXACTLY what i was about to post… they didn't use effing USE such weapons.

    and the second sentence lets you know this, if you can read between CIA/USG/state dept. line…

    “Our intelligence community does asses with **varying** degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a **small** scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent Sarin,” the administration said in a letter.

    not to give obama credit where little/none is due, but basically those wanting to take out assad, made the "red line" get drawn by barrack. and they also "crossed" the line, by having assets and militants use some of such (and try to frame assad for it…. which of course makes no sense for ASSAD to use, let ALONE use after the "red line" was "drawn").

    but i digress……

    AFTER justin's take on boston (where i LIVE)….

    i have realized that AW.com has lost its bearing on some major issue. one major issue too many. the nuances of the arab spring was another major issue i had with them…. and some HACK reporting they did/carried.

  12. Glaser just doesn't get it. The ENTIRE PURPOSE of the Syrian crisis is to enable the US and NATO to destroy Syria as an effective actor in an Iran war AND also to cover an attack by Israel on Lebanon to do the same to Hizballah.

    Step by step the US has been moving forward toward military intervention. Israel has been moving forward toward the same with regards to Hizballah, using the excuse that Syria is moving missiles to them.

    The only thing holding Obama back is that he doesn't want to start the intervention too soon for fear of tarnishing his undeserved Nobel Peace Prize. Which is the same reason he has not yet attacked Iran – he wants Iran to do something to justify the attack, which is why he continually ramps up sanctions.

    The US WILL attack Syria sooner or later – almost certainly sometime this year. Israel will use that attack to cover an attack on Lebanon. Once those wars resolve themselves, the final push for an Iran war will occur, either in 2014 or later.

  13. The hawks like John McCain and Diane Feinstein are having big wargasms over the redline games. Expect these people and many others on Sunday morining TV singing battle songs and exhorting us peasants to spend lives and money on their profitable war adventures.Here we go. Suckered again.

  14. Of course and as usual, the US and its allies will not be thinking of the grim consequences or the so called blowback…neither about how Russia will react..or how Iran reacts. Iran has sleepers in place in the Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia..what will they do and what will be the consequence?

  15. The evidence for Syria's use of chemical weapons is flimsy in the extreme – the film was totally unconvincing, it looked like a bunch of actors playing parts in casualty. I believe this was all stage managed in the UK and US in order to cover up the fact that the so-called Syrian opposition fighters are being hammered by the Syrian government forces. The decaying minds of the west's vegetative politicians are desperate to do something. Anything for that matter, even if it makes no sense. Simply put the west's corrupt leadership have taken up the theme of Israel's – sowing chaos in the region to preserve the rogue state of Israel. I am surprised and disturbed by Antiwar's take on both Syria and the Boston bombings. Watch out world!

  16. On the surface, it makes little sense to use "poisonous gas" in a civil war fought in close quarters – too easy to get a "sniff" of your own crap. Where were the independent definitive tests performed? – probably Tel Aviv. I jumped off of this rolling wreck back with Condaleeza Rice and her "mushroom cloud"

  17. Talk less and do something. What is the purpose of you telling these things that everyone knows? You know Obama, the first black president, is a war criminal. He has killed thousands of people, 40000 in Libya alone, then why don't go into the street and bring this Zionist puppet DOWN. People who just talk have no respect. Obama must be arrested and put on trial and be punished if the penalty is death sentence. He has attack other leader based on LIES like George Bush. Obama is worse than Bush, a convicted war criminal. THE WORLD IS TIRED AND FED UP WITH TERRORISM AND MASS KILLING OF MUSLIMS AND THE GULLIBLE PEOPLE ONLY TALK.
    They have killed millions of Muslims so far and the whore house still standing. We don't want you cheap talk. If you hate what you see, then bring them down. Stop the baby killers now.

  18. [...] on the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria and the potential for a new American military adventure triggered by such claims, not to mention the dedication of a multi-million dollar presidential [...]

  19. It is strongly suspected it was stagemanaged, but in the UK to increase Britain's importance by "helping out" America.

    Also underutilised film studos north of London are being used for a film studio for this.

  20. Antiwar.com will sometimes publish good articles when the subject is not critical to the government's agenda, but when the government is gearing up for a war, AW.com is a propaganda outlet no different than the NYT. I am glad more people are starting to realize this and to be more critical of the "alternative" media in general. There actually are people (like Amal Saad Ghorayeb), that are truly independent and not just publishing propaganda from a different perspective.

  21. Exactly. It wouldn't make sense for Assad to use chemicals, especially in such a small amount. This is an attempt by Israel or the rebels to fabricate a false flag attack to get the U.S. involved.

  22. The 51% most wealthy rule Empire USA, surely the 51% most greedy and they shall do whatever will best gratify greed.

  23. If we keep helping the jihadist in Syria it seems inevitable that they will obtain WMDs from assads arsenal. Unless we bomb the arsenals befor the jihadist get there. So the red line would be someplace between helping jihadist and the arsenals. On the other hand if we bomb the arsenals we will release considerable substance into environment and this will harm people in the localality and perhaps at great distance. I know assad is a bad guy and everything, but After the jihadist have toppled Assad, how is that good for us. If we think real hard we might discover that there are projects in the world that might benefit us more.

  24. So what if he did. Geez it's not that much of a shocker. The USA along with South American forces have released chemicals in South America with horrendous consequences. Where is the outcry about that?

  25. [...] [...]

  26. "Our intelligence community does asses…"

    Doesn't everybody?

  27. Now to all the naïve bloggers here who were against the Syrian people who are fighting against the brutal regime of Al-Asad with the help from Iran, Russia, Israel, China, Iraq and Hizbullah. Wait I forgot to mention the United Snakes of America who gave the green light for Hizbullah to enter into Syrian territories and massacre innocent people. The SFA will never bend down to any power in this world. They will fight to the end until they finish Al-Asad and his thugs, then Iran, Iraqi Mahdi Army and Hizbullah will be next. Very soon Sheikh Al-Arour will announce to the Muslim world to stand up against the aggressors and w'll see who will win this war.

  28. How do you know what weapons they've used, and who cares what weapons they use to kill armed rebels? You are falling into the trap of putting a minus where your enemies put a plus. If they say chemical weapons were used, and certain neocon policy wonks are saying that this justifies intervention, you feel compelled to say there were no such weapons. The article doesn't even say if the government's claim is credible, only that chemical weapons are neither a real "red line," nor a good excuse for intervention. By the way, do you know that US police forces are equipped with, & have used, so called "chemical weapons?"

  29. Sheikh Al-Arour is a fool and a tool….just as the Sfa hand picked 'leaders 'are tools. the muslim ummah is divided- by elements within and from outside….just as the rest of humanity is divided by elements who seek to prey on them….poor people are being set against other poor people…who benefits? the elites in these societies. calling for the overthrow of certain other countries and movements[ the resistance] who have emerged from the grass roots and have a proven track record for defending themselves from outside attack…is a curious call….only a misguided tool of empire [ and an enemy of his own people] would support this. this reprehensible position is not what most muslims- of any school- and indeed what most ordinary decent human beings who have ever been oppressed would agree with. Assad and the regime in general may be a devil for some but he is/they are a minor local one[ no doubt in time this would be dealt with by the syrian community]… assad/the syrian regime is not a global one bent on devouring all. the mad global wolf has been invited into suria and will devour all. people will have traded a relative or small evil [ of course for many Assad is not an evil] for a greater one..who will just crush them and leave them to pick up the pieces….
    Assad still appears to have the support of many syrians- across the sectarian spectrum. His record i think is better than his father's and i think in time Syrian society would have changed and evolved to be more inclusive- just as all societies change over time….while those who identify with the opposition may have legitimate complaints, i think few would have wished to invite outside intervention of the type which throws the baby out with the bath water. Violence breeds more violence….Only self defense is legitimate….and that is what the syrian govt is doing. At some point opposing sides have to sit down and talk terms. its long past time for this discussion to start….for the sake of syrian people the destruction of syria and the violence must stop.

  30. That's exactly what you are going to do and we have warned the world about you terrorists, we know that your next target is Europeans who have helped you to this point. The Al Assad government have offered you to talk and for your people to participate in a political dialogue.., You answered by killing more of the inocent Syrian people, and know you say the same thing as we have said all along.., your war is not about democracy, your war is not about humanity, your war is about your religious, a barbarian war that your Saudi masters pay you to conduct, having said that.., you all ready bent over to those who paying you without you even realize that you are bent over.., if you were a Syrian you should be shame of your behavior killing other Syrians because they don't want to bent over for Saudis nor others.

  31. [...] Click here to read the article [...]

  32. The sudden announcement of the discovery of chemical weapons evidence in Syria took place in the same week where Syrian armed groups were suffering heavey losses on several losses. Obama is a liar and a war criminal.

  33. The US WILL attack Syria sooner or later – almost certainly sometime this year. Israel will use that attack to cover an attack on Lebanon. Once those wars resolve themselves, the final push for an Iran war will occur, either in 2014 or later.

  34. [...] Leer el artículo completo [...]

  35. In terms of the public interest every item in a nations military and civil arsenal is a chemical weapon.

    A bullet is in itself a product of chemically composed particles, not to mention the human being it is used on, hence, in terms of the red line analogy the chemical war began the day the civil war started.

    It's interesting that the predator international nations may wait on the side lines for years, whilst population division of power is a blood lust history and future with no benefit in the power of the people, other than the vast tombstone in memory of the loss of the majority of their own population, which, will reverberate as internalized conflict many years into the Syrian future following peace. If respect for the living is respect for the dead, the chemical war and the red line was at the point the first bullet was fired…simple!

    All chemically composed matter into weapon is arms race competition supply and demand in which the private chemical companies have a big stake. Drawing a red line past the real red line is kind of like saying war was really profitable for the companies who made the first batch of weapons sold to Syria and as depleted stock piles of the arsenal reach peak depletion the objective is to be on the ground for the finish line to fill the order books for the arms dealers again.

    If the actual weapons copyright (?) categorized as 'chemical' are so bad in comparison to any other type of chemical weapon in the reality of all weapons, how, have the caring international, interdependent, interrelated, inter-generational nations of this planet failed to outlaw their presence in our civilizations universal past, present and future?

    Who owns the copyright for chemical composition, given a human being is a duality of copyright unity between the reality of the common public quality and their individual and unique private quality. Quality in equality is quality in unity and all order, equality and unity are natural laws (legal awareness worldwide synchronized) between the past, present and future for the individual, the nation and the world.

    There is no competition in order competition is a choice that can be manipulated into war by those predator elements of greed which feed on death, there is no temptation in order, temptation is a choice that can be manipulated into war by those with the power to manipulate and control interests construed as beneficial to privatized death (greed) rights, which, in as much harvest lives, harvest the finite resources in the present that in reality are as much about security in the future as they are about profits of traditional blood right insecurity fear propaganda in the present.

    The present gift is no gift at all, capitalism is a terrorist barbaric death cult, designed around competition with death to sustain the carriage of those feeding on the rest. Its a death cycle (like Easter Island) and we are all in it together.

    The legitimate copyright moral accountants are the human beings themselves, the only instrument of all instruments with a power beyond parallel in all ancestral coordination to a meaning in life as universally consistent to the natural exchange rate reality of past, present and future. The common wealth is the distribution of artificial exchange (sustainable currency copyright human authorities justice for all rule of natural law) which compliments and enhances the sustainable growth common and unique pattern language of all natural freedom, all natural equality, all natural order, all natural unity as interrelated, interdependent, inter-generational natural authorities of moral awareness in the translation of finite wealth form the planet to the infinite wealth of the people. All 'prime' human beings are the natural unity of a public sector and a private sector – copyright human condition. All growth in constantly and intrinsically equal as order as unity in motion. All ancestral past is public ownership…the public moral authority to select and deselect the value in the significance of private (copyright) choices that define the credibility or impedance of all choice mechanics in the significance of health and security for all is a present and clear individual and collective appreciation of moral authority beyond the limited deformation of history and lives evident in the personification of self interest.

    Self interest is a regressive ball and chain, vast collateral consumption and waste of ancestral human lives is attached too and still connected with today. The division of human copyright identity into the public sector and private sector is a monopolization and deformation of human interests. If human beings don't share a natural moral freedom to select or deselect the international proliferation of new ideas how are we as chemically composed carbon based units of a moral accountancy responsible or rational members of life on earth? .

    Whose controlling the controllers being carried by the majority?

  36. Consciousnesses is in itself the analogy of the bullet, whilst, subconsciousness is the analogy of the chamber the consciousness is unified with. Every bullet (consciousness – freedom of choice – present in motion) as a chamber (life span) natural fusion between the ancestral past and the ancestral future. Every bullet as a natural beginning and end, whilst, every chamber is finite and infinite to the meaning of life translated as purpose. Security is the interactive meaning of purpose, to the meaning of life as an interrelated, interdependent, inter generational, inter gene a rational awareness of unity in the sharing and interaction of growth, given all growth is a psychological, philosophical, ecological awareness of intrinsic growth we are ourselves.

  37. OUTRAGE!

    What is happening in Syria, is a slow-motion illegal, alien invasion, which is destroying the fabric of the country, as it murders 1000s of innocent citizens. That the Syrian govt. resists this outrage is *correct*, as one of the prime tasks of govt.. That the US is involved, was from before the start, is continuing its involvement – *proven* by Kerry’s boast, to ‘double aid’ to the ‘rebels’ – is not at all in doubt, but is touted by US-MSM plus sycophants. Perhaps worse, the UN is involved – but *not* to stop the carnage; not effectively stopping = encouraging murder and eventual rapine.

    It’s not new; see Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, … Vietnam, N.Korea, Palestine – the latter on-going, thanks, but “No, thanks!” to *all* Js (except genuine resisters = totally ineffective), and all world regimes not screaming for a stop to Zs’ ethnic cleansing of pre-UNGA181 Palestine by murdering, thieving, *genocidal* methods.

    Obviously, in this current worst of all worlds, there can be no security – in Syria, and in your neighbourhood soon enough – when the supposed ‘peace-police’ are corrupt.

    WHERE IS JUSTICE??!

  38. [...] Source: Antiwar.com [...]

  39. [...] di armi chimiche in Siria ha incontrato molto scetticismo. (Cfr. John Glaser, Antiwar.com, 26 aprile 2013: “Questo sembra violare la “linea rossa” del presidente Obama, innescando certe [...]

  40. Glaser just doesn't get it. The ENTIRE PURPOSE of the Syrian crisis is to enable the US and NATO to destroy Syria as an effective actor in an Iran war AND also to cover an attack by Israel on Lebanon to do the same to Hizballah.

  41. [...] di armi chimiche in Siria ha incontrato molto scetticismo. (Cfr. John Glaser, Antiwar.com, 26 aprile 2013: “Questo sembra violare la “linea rossa” del presidente Obama, innescando certe azioni non [...]

  42. [...] [...]

  43. [...] the news about chemical weapons use in Syria hit the headlines again last week, I wrote that the whole debate on the issue was bogus. I argued that the alleged use of chemical weapons [...]

  44. Maybe the Obama administration will be goaded into war in Syria because of pressure from European allies (who won’t be doing the heavy lifting themselves) and from rabid interventionists in Congress of the John McCain type. But US reluctance thus far should temper fears that such a scenario is imminent.

  45. [...] the news about chemical weapons use in Syria hit the headlines again last week, I wrote that the whole debate on the issue was bogus. I argued that the alleged use of chemical weapons [...]

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  47. [...] Why Obama’s Chemical Weapons ‘Red Line’ in Syria Is Bogus [...]

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