The Truth About Iranian Missiles

Jason Ditz, July 14, 2013

Let’s dissect a headline:

Pentagon: Iran will soon have nuclear missiles capable of striking US

Here’s the true parts:

1. Iran is a country that exists
2. The Pentagon is a place that says lots of nonsensical things

If we’re realistic about examining the “threat” of Iran nuking the US in two short years, there are a starling array of things worth noting. The one that struck me though is that Iran has been “within X years” where X is 2-4 depending on how hawkish the person claiming it is, from nuking the US for as long as I can remember.

That’s not hyperbole. People in the US literally began making these dire predictions in the early 1980’s, when I was just learning to read and before I’d started grade school. 30+ years later, the predictions are still coming, and they’re still headline news.

The claim stems from two different assumptions:

a) Iran will have mastered making warhead-capable miniaturized nuclear bombs.

b) Iran will have developed ICBMs capable of hitting the US.

Part a) is just embarrassing nonsense, because even America’s own intelligence estimates say Iran hasn’t even been trying to do anything nuclear weapons related in years, and the IAEA keeps reiterating the civilian nature of Iran’s civilian program. We go through this all the time. The b) part I think is more interesting, because Iran actually has missiles, and is trying to improve those missiles.

But here the claim fails too, because Iran’s developments in missile technology have centered almost entirely on the twin disciplines of anti-aircraft missiles to protect themselves against air strikes, and medium-range missiles that max out at about Israel (or Greece for the “Iran’s going to attack Europe” scaremongering).

Every assessment of Iran’s military includes the same word in the conclusion: defensive. Iran can’t have a US-sized military budget, so it focuses primarily on making attack inconvenient and having a credible retaliatory capability in the hopes of convincing Israel or whoever that attacking is too dangerous.

And let’s be honest about the “or whoever” part of that. If Iran gets attacked, it’s going to be by Israel, because they’ve got the unique brand of proactive sociopaths in leadership to start a big war like that for no good reason, while most other nations have a whole other brand of sociopaths in power that are lazy and reluctant to start any war they don’t think they’ll win in a matter of hours.




13 Responses to “The Truth About Iranian Missiles”

  1. This is all a smokescreen, because the Israelis are developing long range missiles that can carry nuclear warhead. It raises the spectre of a threat which doesn't exist, and it provides a specious justification for Israel doing it.

  2. If the "truth" telling had any thing to do with WH or any of the present political parties in America or for that matter EU then the world would be much better place to live.

    In the other hand, let the Israelis use their long range nuclear warhead, let see what happens to the world of vulture capitalism, let see if Zionism will survive.

  3. That’s not hyperbole. People in the US literally began making these dire predictions in the early 1980′s, when I was just learning to read and before I’d started grade school. 30+ years later, the predictions are still coming, and they’re still headline news.

  4. As we all know, the Los Zetas Mexican Drug Cartel is now an Iranian proxy.

    It's well known the Los Zetas operate just across the Rio Grande. Considering the fact 'dirty bombs' are technically "Nuclear weapons" and that the Los Zetas, I'm sure, have access mortars (or can at least rig together crude rockets/missiles on their own)–this headline is actually outdated as Iran can already strike the US with Nukes.

  5. This might just be the case of one of our many dual citizens forgreeting he was in Washington and not his residency in Jerusalem. He actually intended to state the Iranians could hit is home in a few years. I live in Philadelphia and I doubt that it matters one bite if the Iranians has a rocket which could hit Philadelphia. i know that 40,000 nukes would be launched on Iran the second it was determined they attempted to nuke a USA city. There will be 55,000 nukes launched if the Iranians dare to attack the owners of the USA In Israel.

  6. This is all a smokescreen, because the Israelis are developing long range missiles that can carry nuclear warhead. It raises the spectre of a threat which doesn't exist, and it provides a specious justification for Israel doing it.

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  8. Religious blood sacrificers shouldn't be let alone with so much power…..be they those Khazars of the former Soviet Union who run Israel, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, or American Federal Government (where they infest personally and thru proxy ownership).

    From an American taxpayer point of view…..it's a damned shame the Mayans weren't the last of the blood sacrificers.

  9. They started in late 79 when Iran ousted the US/UK installed dictator. US needed a new reason to go back into Iran and use aggression to remake it into a client state so it could control Iran's oil. This is not even slightly controversial.

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  11. I've heard these babbling rants by the DC lunatics ever since. Of course they want to steal the oil all over again. What other reason could there be!

  12. They started in late 79 when Iran ousted the US/UK installed dictator. US needed a new reason to go back into Iran and use aggression to remake it into a client state so it could control Iran's oil. This is not even slightly controversial.

  13. .be they those Khazars of the former Soviet Union who run Israel, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, or American Federal Government (where they infest personally and thru proxy ownership). Ge fridge repairs