What Happens If Bahrain Turns to Civil War?

Much of the hawkish commentary on Syria has centered around this notion that inaction led the al-Qaeda elements in the rebel opposition to metastasize. If only we had intervened early on, before the deepening of the civil war and all the blood-letting, we could have empowered the democratic elements of the early protest movement, they argue.

Obama meets with Bahrain King Hamad Bin Isa al-Khalifa
Obama meets with Bahrain King Hamad Bin Isa al-Khalifa

This argument is wrong, as I’ve written here on this blog since 2011. The reverse is actually more accurate. Early meddling and support of rebel militias on the part of the U.S. and its allies in the Arab Gulf states is what helped the radical elements to prevail and eventually overwhelm the whole rebel opposition.

Leaving aside the inaccuracy for a moment, I’m wondering why interventionists don’t apply this same logic to Bahrain. Largely peaceful democratic protests erupted in Bahrain in 2011 and it was mercilessly crushed. Ever since then, the Sunni monarch in Bahrain has employed a mix of systematic repression (including indefinite detention, torture, strict limits on speech, etc.) and cosmetic political reforms to manage the domestic unrest and prevent the situation from getting to the point of mass killings and civil war. So for more than three years now, the brutally subjugated Shia majority has been left to fester and struggle to maintain a commitment to non-violence in the hopes of substantive change to the authoritarian system under which they live.

It’s worth noting the primary reasons change has not been forthcoming: both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia support the Bahraini dictatorship unswervingly. This has added to the frustration among the Shia opposition. Frederic Wehrey, writing at The National Interest, points to some worrying signs that some in the predominantly peaceful opposition have taken to violence:

A militant strand of the Shia opposition led by the February 14 Youth Coalition and the Ashtar Brigades is becoming bolder and more brazen in its attacks against regime security forces. It is not surprising that new, more sophisticated improvised explosive devices have become the currency of this radical strain, And perhaps most worrisome for the U.S., they are growing increasingly hostile to the presence of the Fifth Fleet, which they believe is colluding in the ongoing repression. Angry young men have marched on the Fifth Fleet housing area of Juffeir, burning U.S. flags. Swathes of the capital are now no-go zones for U.S. personnel.

Interventionist can’t imagine applying the same logic to Syria that they do to Bahrain. Assad is a brutal dictator; the Al Khalifa regime in Bahrain is a reliable ally that must be supported at all costs, even if it means crushing a pro-democracy movement.

The status quo in Bahrain is that the regime uses low-intensity violence and coercion to contain a peaceful pro-democracy movement fighting for basic human rights. The lack of change, which is largely thanks to U.S. support of the regime, could lead to a very different dynamic in the near future.

And then what?

51 thoughts on “What Happens If Bahrain Turns to Civil War?”

  2. The Shi'a are NOT peaceful! They have been engaged in near constant acts of violence against the police, with almost daily running battles being fought in the streets. They're using not only crude petrol bombs but now IEDs in what basically amounts to a terror campaign. Many police have been injured and killed by these so-called "activists", a fact conveniently omitted by the western media.

    1. Why would the western media omit this? What would be their motive? They're owned by the same people that want the other side to be portrayed as the villain. Perfect opportunity, no?

  3. What is going on in Bahrain is and was not peaceful. I have lived in Bahrain for the last 30 + years and I have the opportunity to trace the development to what it is now. Peaceful political settlements is not what the oppositions want. What they want is to establish a sectarian pro- Iran Islamic state. Many people may not understand my view , but it will come to be true in due course of time. The leaders of the opposition are sectarian to the core.
    The rest of the Bahrain public wants democratic reforms, but not the way the opposition are going. They want a secular , and democratic country. There lies the difference.If the opposition can assure the Bahrain public that they have nothing to do with sectarianism and Iran, I am sure all of them will have joined the daily protests. But ney, oppositions agenda is different.

    1. As an expat living and working in Bahrain, I can't agree with you more. Thank you for your clarity. To summarize the opposition's actions : they were a minority in parliament ( yes, Bahrain has free elections ) they could not do what they wanted democratically as they were a minority,so they made deals with outside elements both with the west ( backers of the Arab spring )and ultimately with Iran. took to the street with violence ( no peaceful protesters here ) failed again. Blocked new elections , Failed again.they were offered dialogue ( evolution not revolution ) but they wanted monologue so failed yet again, used a torrent of lies with the western media, failed again ( you can't kid all the people all the time !) now protesting against formula 1 race ! What a bunch of CRAP.

  4. Mr. Obama seems to have a fetish for "dictatorships"–particularly "monarchs" who belong "in the dustbin of history"…as Mr. Obama says:

    http://cdn02.cdn.justjared.com/wp-content/uploads…

    How do these brutal despots still manage to 'hang on'…even in the 21st Century?

    http://youtu.be/4qq_UhePJZ0

    The crackdown of the "peaceful protesters" happens all too often under these autocratic "regimes"…

    http://www.bdinn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/r…

    The almighty "democracy" is the "cure"… Riiiight Glaser…

    When will these savages ever learn???

    http://www.royal.gov.uk/monarchuk/themonarchytoda…

  5. The protesters are peaceful. It is the tyrannical Bahraini monarchy, along with their possibly even more tyrannical Saudi backers who are violent. An independent inquiry has found that there is absolutely NO Iranian involvement in the Bahraini uprising whatsoever, whereas Saudi and Emarati forces invaded Bahrain back in 2011and still remain stationed in the country. Also, it is well-known and widely documented that there are many Pakistanis and other non-Bahraini Sunnis serving in the "Bahraini" security forces: the Bahraini dictatorship has been hiring foreign Sunni EXTREMISTS to brutally suppress the Shia majority of Bahrain.

  6. The tyrants regimes are "painted democracy" as they themselves are dressed and pained, hair and facial colored as if they were attending the Hollywood hierarchy in hypocrisy to be selected for a part in batman movies, I mean just look at this guy shaking hand with Obama, if you live him under the sun for five minutes he would start melting, the colors in his face, his hair would no longer look that shiny and his mustache start running. These people are the reason for peace to be manipulated by the western unjust foreign politics, these elements are the reason for Israel to do as its please, democracy to these people is when they travel with entourage and privet jumbo jet to London for face left.

  7. As always, I feel that the US should abandon both Syria and Bahrain, and indeed the whole Middle East, and use all the resources it wastes on that place to produce synthetic oil. Perhaps they could also provide more backing for Heather Willauer and her team so they can produce the stuff from seawater, powered by nukes of course. After all, our ancestors were bothered by tigers and wolves, since they had to tackle them with stone axes and fire-hardened wooden sticks. Now we can blow them to pieces with RPG's. Technical fixes work!!

    1. From seawater? Seawater is salty dihydrogen monoxide. You don't get anything from that,

      And if you want to go 100% synthetic, a quick back-of-the-envelope computation shows that you need the input of ~10'000 nuclear reactors. And this assuming 100% efficiency.

  9. Pingback: Bahrain pictures and news today from Internet | Bahrain

  10. There was virtually no legal basis for what the U.S. ended up doing in Libya. There ended up being no net benefit for Libyans or for U.S. interests as defined by Washington. It was a failure and its consequences continue to haunt us.

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