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April 29, 2004

Iraq's Other Battlefields

by Christopher Deliso

balkanalysis.com

When the US starts leveling the minarets of mosques, you know that things are getting desperate. Marines in Fallujah claimed Monday that a "real nasty bunch" of insurgents was attacking them, in the process using the minaret as a sniper's nest. By the rules of military engagement, this made it a legitimate target. Yet according to the inverted law of the symbolic, this operation (like so many before it) was rather one of deferred suicide. Although the Marines may have blown away a few gunmen and eliminated the immediate threat by demolishing the minaret, in doing so they presented a rich symbolic gift to the Iraqi resistance. For Iraqis and Muslims everywhere, televised images of the US toppling mosques only reinforces their belief that America is on a religious crusade against them- a realization that bolsters the ranks not only of the resistance, but of international terrorist groups worldwide.

Forget about the gung-ho military warnings about "pacifying" the Iraqis and the arrogant assurances of what an "offensive" will look like. To be sure, the formidable array of weapons in the American arsenal guarantees that they could pulverize any Iraqi town, even heavily fortified ones such as Fallujah and Najaf. If victory were as simple as this, winning the war might be possible. In reality, however, heavy-handed military solutions are not only counterproductive to American strategy – they're also fast becoming irrelevant, as the war spreads far beyond Iraq's borders.

A Spreading Fear

As the Iraqi quagmire deepens, it also widens. In the last week alone, there have been terrorist acts, gunfights, and thwarted attacks in places as far-flung as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, as well as Thailand, Afghanistan, and even Kosovo. Yet the clear connection between American imperialism and conflict replication has apparently been lost on the War Party and its cheerleaders. On Tuesday, Fox News provided video footage of Marines emptying round after round into the Fallujah resistance, alongside an idiotic title: the "battle for Fallujah." This anachronism deviously implies equivalence with the type of battle waged in the old days – the traditional march across territory that characterized warfare for much of human history. In other words, a war we've seen before and a war we can therefore win.

Yet this is no longer the case. With Fallujah, Najaf, and Sadr City, the US has less interest in swallowing up choice real estate than in proving a point – that symbolic murder (the four Fallujah contractors) will not be forgotten, that resisters (like Al Sadr) will not go unpunished. By taking the bait and getting involved in these miserable little conflicts, the US proved itself to be a sucker for the symbolic and inscribed its own death warrant. For no matter if the Marines kill every insurgent in Fallujah, no matter if they "pacify" the place even by bulldozing it and paving it over completely, the battle won't have been won. How could it be, when it's hardly yet begun?

When the retaliation comes, it will just as likely take place in the streets of Rome or Riyadh as in some dusty, meaningless town in central Iraq. So much for all the self-praise war apologists and military spokesmen have been making regarding America's improved "asymmetric warfare" capabilities. The increasing radicalization of the Muslim world can only mean that the asymmetry will be taken to a global level, through more and more vicious acts of terrorism, and the US will prove itself more and more incapable of restoring peace. They are in the process not only of making Iraq today's Vietnam, but in making the entire world into the next Vietnam – whether they ask anyone's permission or not.

The Middle East: Muted Attacks, and an Ominous Might-Have-Been

On April 21, a suicide car bombing in Riyadh wreaked massive destruction on the headquarters of the Saudi security forces, leaving 4 dead and 148 injured. According to Reuters, "…a Saudi official said there was 'no doubt' the attack was by Saudi-born Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network." Al Qaeda has since denied it, but the Saudi authorities aren't taking any chances. Since Sunday, they've been stepping up the hunt for local al Qaeda leader Abdulaziz Issa Abdul-Mohsin al-Moqrin, believed to be hiding in mountains outside the capital. On Tuesday, convoys of security officers supported by helicopters headed into the hills to hunt for him. The same day, an audiotape was released, allegedly created by the al Qaeda leader, in which he vowed to increase attacks on Americans in the kingdom.

The same evening, a murky gun battle occurred far away in a Damascus neighborhood filled with foreign embassies. While authorities have not said anything specific, there are few doubts that the Syrian turbulence is part of the same spate of attacks witnessed recently in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. And this has very troubling ramifications:

"'…Syria is usually a very stable country,' Lebanese analyst Edmund Saab told the Arab satellite channel Al-Arabiya. 'It looks like the situation in Iraq is not going to spare a single Arab country. If the threat of terrorism has reached Syria, it will be difficult to stop it from getting to other places.'"

Far more sobering than these examples is what happened in Jordan last week – or, more to the point, what almost happened. According to the Jordanian government, Jordanian and Syrian terrorists (including an 18 year-old) were planning an apocalyptic terrorist attack with chemical weapons that would have left approximately 80,000 dead in Amman. Since the plot, apparently overseen by high-ranking al Qaeda member Abu Mussab Al Zarqawi, was foiled and nothing happened, the media made little of it, moving on quickly to the next headline. But what if it had gone off, an attack almost 30 times bigger than 9/11 in terms of human casualties? It's almost beyond contemplation. It's safe to say that winning the "Battle for Fallujah" would suddenly have seemed very trivial indeed.

Asia's Unrest

Thailand has been one of the Bush Administration's stronger Asian allies over Iraq, and currently has 440 troops there. Their support has been noted. One week ago, the South Korean embassy in Bangkok received a telegram from a previously unknown Islamic group – the "Yellow-Red Overseas Organization," which threatened attacks against "…diplomatic compounds, airlines, and transportation systems in South Korea, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Australia, Kuwait and Pakistan," because of their support for America in Iraq. Last month, the Australian embassy in Kuala Lumpur was attacked, albeit with little damage. But the threat is clearly there.

More spectacularly, Thailand was hit on Tuesday with an insurrection from Muslim guerrillas near the southern border with Malaysia. While Thai Foreign Minister Surakiat Sathirathai claimed that the fighting "…was nothing related to international terrorism and religious clashes," most reports from the scene has stressed the Islamic apparel and writings found along with the dead fighters. Is this a one-off incident involving "bandits," as the government asserts, or is Thailand going the way of the Philippines? One Thai analyst makes a striking point: "…Mr Sunai Phasuk, an independent analyst, told AFP: 'When they went in wielding only swords and small guns, it showed that the perpetrators were prepared to die. That is very new for southern Thailand.'"

Other far more dangerous possible reactions to Iraq exist throughout Asia. FBI Director Robert Mueller now warns about future terrorist attacks in China. There is the case of Uzbekistan, the "source" of regional extremism according to a recent RFE/RL report. Aside from the perennial fears about Chechnya and previously "pacified" Afghanistan, the most worrying possibility of all involves Pakistan, where assassins have twice failed in their attempt to kill unpopular President Pervez Musharraf. Portrayed by his opponents as being an American lackey and un-Islamic, Musharraf nevertheless has been able to keep the lid on things, which is essentially why the US likes him. And if he were to be suddenly deposed? A nuclear-armed Pakistan turned fundamentalist overnight – now there's a formula for the next world war.

England's Jolly Objectors

Far away, in merry old England, extremist Islamic leaders have found plenty of new enthusiasts for the cause, in the offspring of immigrants and other young people in the Muslim communities of London, Manchester and elsewhere. Along with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq has become a key recruiting tool for the would-be British jihadis. According to a recent piece in the New York Times:

"…they say they would like to see Prime Minister Tony Blair dead or deposed and an Islamic flag hanging outside No. 10 Downing Street. They swear allegiance to Osama bin Laden and his goal of toppling Western democracies to establish an Islamic superstate under Shariah law, like Afghanistan under the Taliban. They call the Sept. 11 hijackers the 'Magnificent 19' and regard the Madrid train bombings as a clever way to drive a wedge into Europe."

The leader of this bunch, Sheik Omar Bakri Mohammad, warned the West about the futility of its "war on terror," saying, "…it is foolish to fight people who want death – that is what they are looking for."

While Britain has always been afflicted by a handful of oddballs, what's worrying authorities now is the new popularity and activity radical groups are enjoying. Says the Times:

"…Hundreds of young Muslim men are answering the call of militant groups affiliated or aligned with Al Qaeda, intelligence and counterterrorism officials in the region say.

Even more worrying, said a senior counterterrorism official, is that the level of 'chatter' – communications among people suspected of terrorism and their supporters – has markedly increased since Mr. bin Laden's warning to Europe this month. The spike in chatter has given rise to acute worries that planning for another strike in Europe is advanced.

'Iraq dramatically strengthened their recruitment efforts,' one counterterrorism official said. He added that some mosques now display photos of American soldiers fighting in Iraq alongside bloody scenes of bombed out Iraqi neighborhoods."

Similar rhetoric has long come from the most vocal Islamic antagonist in Britain, the hook-handed Sheikh Abu Hamza Al-Mazri. The government is currently seeking to deport him, but the good old fairness of Britain's judicial system means that Al-Mazri will likely get taxpayer funds to help him prepare his appeal – set for next January. Until then, the one-eyed firebrand is apparently free to orate at will about the benefits of committing suicide attacks on one's "doorstep" and killing all Israelis over the age of 15- among other things apparently required for Islamic "world domination."

Unknown Commodities: Albania and Kosovo

Interestingly enough, according to Skopje's Dnevnik, Al-Mazri would also like to take the fight to Albania: "…Al Qaida has its own people in Albania and they will soon be ready to act," the newspaper quoted him as saying on Monday. Despite its sizeable Muslim population, Albania has stuck out for its fervent pro-Americanism. It was the first Balkan country to offer troops for Iraq, and recently has offered to send more.

Although Al-Mazri's Albanian connection has been clear only since the famous January 2003 raid on his Finsbury Park mosque, Albanian Islamic elements have been present for much longer in London. Not to mention that bin Laden has historical connections with Albania going back to the mid-1990's. Foreign radicals have since then been able to exploit the country's porous borders and rural lawlessness to establish a foothold in this forgotten corner of southern Europe.

In 1999, NATO forcibly removed the Serbian government from neighboring Kosovo. But the new rulers have done precious little since to secure the province's borders. Since 1999, militants coming and going between Bosnia to the north and Albania to the south have enjoyed unprecedented freedom of movement, mostly through illegal wilderness border crossings. However, the laxity of passport controls at the official crossings (something which itself borders on the scandalous) means that would-be jihadis continue to have easy access to Kosovo, or "Unmikistan," as one local mockingly dubbed it.

Though they haven't yet showed their hand, plenty of information exists to suggest that foreign mujahedin organizers are present in Kosovo. Even excluding whatever may come of this, however, Kosovo is already another Iraqi battleground. The freak shooting of American UNMIK police officers by a Jordanian cop is the case in point. While UN sources repeatedly said that the gun battle was not caused by a dispute over Iraq, this was only partially true. Their point was merely that no conversation had occurred before the shooting broke out; therefore, no dispute.

However that may be, the ultimate motivator behind the Jordanian's action seems to have been anti-Americanism fueled by the Iraq war and US support for Israel. According to one informed source, "This guy [the shooter] was a village guy who had never even met an American, but only knew them from the terrible things he heard on TV. So he had some anger inside him, and he got crazy. He didn't even know the people he was shooting at, just that they were Americans."

Meanwhile, Back in Iraq…

Back in the place that started it all, Iraq, the Bush Administration continues to flail. Satisfying its quixotic desire for a transition of power by June 30 is already producing strains: News that the hand-picked Iraqi National Council may well dissolve amidst in-fighting, acrimony, and forced retirements only shows that the US has little control over those few Iraqis still willing to "play ball" with the occupiers. Yet even as they lose credibility among their own people for coming up with an Israeli-colored flag, the Council is trying to show some gumption by calling for no less than full sovereignty come June 30 – a response to Colin Powell's recent statement that Iraqi sovereignty would be of a "limited" nature – to say the least.

Meanwhile, things are now escalating in towns where truces had been announced, though not respected. George Bush delivers fulsome orations regarding his resolve to "…take whatever action is necessary to secure Fallujah on behalf of the Iraqi people." Yet this promise not only smacks of deceptive rhetoric – it's also irrelevant.

"Securing" Fallujah is impossible. Even if it were possible, such a tactic would not help to create a peaceful and stable Iraq, let alone a peaceful and terror-free world. Like typical occupiers, the Americans think that potential resisters will be chastened by the example of their defeated kin. So far, they haven't. Even worse for the Americans and the rest of the world too, those seeking the glory of militant martyrdom elsewhere are equally unimpressed by the much-vaunted displays of "shock and awe." Now that new legions of terrorists are prepared to take the fight to Iraq's myriad other battlefields, the mightiest country on earth can do little else but to keep inciting them. Will it take another massive terrorist attack somewhere along the vast, undefended Western front for people to realize that the Iraq invasion truly was the worst idea, ever?


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  • Christopher Deliso is an American journalist, travel writer and author concentrating on the Balkans and Southeast Europe, where he has lived and traveled for almost a decade. His criticisms of interventionist foreign policy can be found in his writings for Antiwar.com, and in his recent work on the West's failures to eradicate foreign-funded Muslim extremists in the Balkans, The Coming Balkan Caliphate: The Threat of Radical Islam to Europe and the West (Praeger Security International, 2007). Mr Deliso directs the Balkan-interest news and analysis website, Balkanalysis.com and is also the author of a travelogue, Hidden Macedonia (Haus Publishing, London). He holds an MPhil with distinction in Byzantine Studies from Oxford University.

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