November 27, 2000
The Glorious Departure of Bill
Newton Dunn
The Right must get used to the fact that it will
lose the opportunists
BUTTERFLY
WINGS
Bill
Newton-Dunn
is not the best known of International statesmen. Indeed he is a
rather mediocre figure all round. However, he made a mild splash
in the newspapers this week when he left the Conservative
Party in the European Parliament for the Liberal
Democrats. Not big news, insignificant men in an emasculated
institution – but the lessons that it holds for the right as
it reshapes are immense. The fact is that the old conservative alliances
are dying – the Cold War is not the cement that it was on the
right – and new ones are forming. However, the personnel will
change.
THE
SELECTION FARCE
Of
course, Conservative
Central Office only has itself to blame. In 1999, the European
elections were held and there was a real mood within the Conservative
Party to purge Eurosceptics. There was no incumbent advantage so
the Conservative Party could, and would have, written again on a
new slate and elected only those who were sufficiently Euro-sceptical
for the newly honest party. Of course, the political geniuses in
Central Office did not see it that way. They were afraid of appearing
too "right-wing". This was of course the big no-no, and for some
good reason. It is a cliché that the average Conservative
Party activist is either a reactionary colonel's wife, a selfish
City-boy or a xenophobic working class ignoramus. What does the
Conservative Party do about this? Talk about Conservative themes
in a way to bring in the majority of people, who believe in them
or to try to argue the merits of their party on the Left's terms.
I know stupid question – and sadly a stupid answer. The truth
is that the Conservative hierarchy pushed – rather successfully
– for the moderates. Tory party activists were told, cajoled
even, into voting for balanced tickets by supposedly neutral officials
and party bigwigs. The Conservative Party faithful, with their dwindling
but still overwhelming ethic of deference, obeyed. Some MEPs who
represented their members' views were elected; Dan
Hannan was a good example, although good many others were Europhiles
to the core, like our friend Mr. Newton-Dunn.
DUNN?
YOU HAVE BEEN.
How
did the wets react to the efforts of the party hierarchy? Gratitude?
Not a bit of it. Professional politicians in Britain rarely change
their party; they have had twenty odd years to do that before going
pro. With that in mind, there has been a relative flood of defections
from the left of the Tory Party to the other two parties. This did
not start with the Blair government, there has been the slow
drip-drip of defection since John Major. To be fair to the Wets,
this is inevitable. With new issues arising and the centre of gravity
on the old issues going more and more to the right the left wingers
in the Conservatives will find a more snug home in the Labour Party
or the Liberal Democrats. In the same way, moderate Republicans
will resume their drift to the Democrats if class-war Al does not
succeed in his bid to overturn the Electoral College. This does
not mean instant death for the Conservatives – it is instead
a sign that their underlying agenda is winning and that the other
parties are rushing to take the territory. What it does mean is
that the Conservatives are going to have to be more careful about
who they select to represent them.
THE
WOODWARD FACTOR
One
of the illustrations of the basic treachery of the professional
political class was that of Shaun
Woodward. This man, although gay,
married into the incredibly wealthy Sainsbury family, and used the
money to make himself the local Lord
of the Manor. Having previously worked in the Conservative Party
headquarters (the party being notoriously permissive about who they
let work for them) he thought he would turn his hand at politics.
So he went to his local association, in what was a safe Tory seat,
and put his name forward. He said the required things and they voted
him in. Unfortunately, what he had not said was that he was prepared
to switch parties. This time the issue was not Europe, well not
mainly Europe, but gay rights. Why someone who was publicly not
gay should have been so worked up about homosexual rights was little
explained, let alone to his constituency. But there it is. It is
fairly clear to any Conservative Party selecting candidates that
they have to choose those who do not have a history of moderation,
but of loyalty to the party.
THE
TEST
The
test to see if the Conservative Party has learned the lessons will
be coming in the affluent constituency of Esher
and Walton. There the perpetual rebel Ian
Taylor has had a last minute challenge to his nomination as
MP. Naturally, he has appealed for help from Conservative Central
Office, and it looks as if the party hierarchy will ride to his
rescue. I am very bad at predicting British politics, but my prediction
in this case will be that Mr. Taylor is reselected, and that he
will show his gratitude by defecting from his party in the next
five years.
INSIST
ON THE HARD LINE
Party
activists are often derided for choosing "extremists" to fight elections
for them, and often rightly so. However, for the Conservatives,
and for other parties of the right, the momentary flux will mean
that they have to batten down the hatches and choose the hard liners.
They should not just be hard liners on economic issues, but also
on cultural and international issues. The idea of the right being
a one-dimensional economic entity is past, the Left has discovered
that capitalism can work for them as well. However, this new emphasis
on non-economic issues has a potentially huge payoff. The much-discussed
political promiscuity of the upper middle classes is oft discussed,
but it is nothing compared to the disgruntlement of Labour's working
class core vote. While some of this vote may go to the remnants
of the old Socialist movements, most of this will go to the party
that represents their non-cosmopolitan views on other issues. When
no one is talking about social justice, the working class will go
to the party that is closest to them on crime, social issues and,
yes, even sovereignty.
SACK
THE WETS
Conservative
activists now have the tools at their disposal to vet the wets from
their midst, the most prominent is the well researched candidlist
site on the web. The advantages are many, hard-line candidates will
stick to the party which elected them and they will attract voters
far more than the born-to-rule wets. It does mean that my vaguely
libertarian social beliefs will take a hard knock, but it is a question
of priorities. The right will have to face new issues, raw and emotional
issues like national sovereignty and the necessity of wars. If the
Conservative Party or the Republicans do not face up to this, it
won't just be their numbers diminishing by defection and their message
being incoherent, the country they profess to love may be lost as
well.
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