The stage is set for a chain of events that could
lead to nuclear war over chemical weapons in the immediate future. If these
events unfold, the trigger will be Israel, the target Iran, the nuclear aggressor the U.S. These are the reasons:
- The U.S. State Department determined in August 2005 that "Iran is in violation of
its CWC [Chemical Weapons Convention] obligations because Iran is acting
to retain and modernize key elements of its CW infrastructure to include an
offensive CW R&D capability and dispersed mobilization facilities."
- According to the CIA, "Iran likely has already stockpiled blister, blood, choking, and
probably nerve agents – and the bombs and artillery shells to deliver them
– which it previously had manufactured."
- According to (then undersecretary for arms control and international security,
now U.S. ambassador to the UN) John Bolton's testimony to the House of Representatives
(June 24, 2004), "We believe Iran has a covert program to develop and
stockpile chemical weapons," and on Iran's ballistic missiles, "Iran
continues its extensive efforts to develop the means to deliver weapons of
mass destruction," and "The 1,300-km range Shahab-3 missile is a direct
threat to Israel, Turkey, U.S. forces in the region, and U.S. friends and
- In the IAEA
resolution of Sept. 24 [.pdf], Iran was found to be in "noncompliance"
with its NPT safeguards agreements.
- Members of the Israeli parliament from across the political spectrum are
urging the United States to stop Iran's nuclear programs, or Israel will "act
unilaterally." Statements of grave concern about Iran's nuclear program
have been made by Defense Minister
Shaul Mofaz, Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom, and Mossad
chief Meir Dagan (Iran poses an "existential threat" to Israel). Shin
Bet chief Avi Dichter accuses Iran of plotting relentlessly
to attack Israeli targets.
- According to the head of the Russian Atomic Energy Organization, Alexander
Rumyantsev, Russia will ship the first cargo of nuclear fuel for Iran's Bushehr's
reactor at the end of 2005 or early 2006.
- Israel bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor (which was under IAEA supervision)
in 1981 just before nuclear
fuel was loaded into it (to prevent nuclear fallout).
- President Bush has said that "all
options are on the table" if diplomacy fails to halt Iran's nuclear program.
- The U.S. House of Representatives on May 6, 2004, by a vote of 376-3, called
on the United States to use
all appropriate means to deter, dissuade, and prevent Iran from acquiring
- In the recently released draft document "Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations" [.pdf], the Pentagon states
that it will respond to the threat of WMD (which includes chemical and biological
weapons) with nuclear weapons.
Conclusion: according to Israel, the U.S. administration, and 99.2 percent
of the U.S. House of Representatives, Iran will not be allowed to have access
to any nuclear technology. No diplomatic options to achieve that goal will remain
when Russia and China veto Security Council sanctions, or if the IAEA refuses
on Nov. 24 to refer Iran to the Security Council. Military action will occur
before Russia ships uranium fuel to Iran, and will inevitably lead to the use
of nuclear weapons by the U.S. against Iran.
How will it all get started? No matter how much Bush and Cheney want it, the
U.S. Senate is unlikely to authorize the bombing of Iranian installations out
of the blue. Unless there is some major disturbance in Iraq that can be blamed
on Iran, Israel is likely to pull the trigger. It knows how to and has every motivation to do so.
Once Israel drops the first bomb on an Iranian nuclear facility, as it did
with Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981, there is no return. Bushehr is likely to be
the first target; other installations will follow.
Iran will respond – how can it not? At a minimum, it will shoot
missiles at Israel. It may or may not shoot at U.S. forces in Iraq initially,
but given the U.S.-Israel "special
relationship," there is no way the U.S. will stay out of the conflict. Many
of Iran's targeted facilities
are underground, and U.S. bombs will be needed to destroy them all.
Once the U.S. enters the conflict, 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq will be at risk
of Iranian missiles with chemical warheads, or of being overrun by Iran's conventional
forces streaming into Iraq. According to the Pentagon planning [.pdf], nuclear weapons will be used:
- "To demonstrate U.S. intent and capability to use nuclear weapons to deter
adversary use of WMD."
- "Against an adversary using or intending to use WMD against U.S., multinational,
or alliance forces or civilian populations…"
- "[O]n adversary installations including WMD, deep, hardened bunkers containing
chemical or biological weapons or the C2 infrastructure required for the adversary
to execute a WMD attack against the United States or its friends and allies"
- "[T]o counter potentially overwhelming adversary conventional forces…"
- "For rapid and favorable war termination on U.S. terms…"
- "To ensure success of U.S. and multinational operations…"
That makes six independent reasons for nuking Iran.
The first nuclear bomb used in an act of war after "Little Boy" and "Fat
Man" should be code-named "Demo" – for "demonstration"
that we can do it, don't mess with us, for "democracy"
on the rise in the Middle East, and for the "Democrats" in Congress
who will go along with the program. As with Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we will
be told it saved lives, ours and theirs. You know the script.
The upshot: a nuclear superpower will have nuked a non-nuclear state that
is an NPT signatory and is cooperating with the IAEA, at the instigation of
a state that is not an NPT signatory, that reportedly has over 100 nuclear bombs of
its own, and that initiated hostilities with an unprovoked act of military
Given these prospects, the U.S. government should be doing its utmost to restrain
Israel, yet it is doing exactly
It should be trying to achieve a diplomatic solution, but it refuses to even
talk to Iran. The ongoing diplomatic effort by the EU is simply designed to
provide cover for the planned military action, just as in the case of Iraq.
How many times must Bush play the same game before the EU finally learns it
is being used?
And how many times will it take for the U.S. citizenry to learn? The U.S. public
and its representatives in Congress, preoccupied with the deception and subsequent
disaster of the Iraq invasion, are blind to the enormously bigger deception
and disaster unfolding just before their eyes. Do the majority of American citizens,
from whom the authority of the administration is derived, really want to be
drawn by Israel into a nuclear conflict? Is this really in the United States'
The sane world needs to tell the U.S. and Israeli governments to back off.
And the United States needs to tell Israel, in no uncertain terms, that it will
not allow (American-supplied) Israeli
bombers carrying (American supplied)
bunker-busting bombs over Iraqi airspace, and that it will not aid, abet,
or condone such an attack. By not demanding this of the Bush administration,
the U.S. Congress is complicit in what is about to happen and is betraying the
trust of the people it represents.
There is a rational way to avoid this disaster.
- Let Iran pursue a civilian nuclear program. Over 30 countries have civilian
nuclear programs, while only nine have nuclear weapons. Let the Nobel-prize
winning IAEA and Mohamed ElBaradei do their job!
- The U.S. can guarantee Israel's safety by assuring Israel that any
threat to its existence from a non-nuclear nation will be met with the full
force of U.S. conventional forces, and any threat from a nuclear nation will
be met with U.S. nuclear forces.
- If Iran were to withdraw from the NPT and not allow international supervision
of its programs, it would still take several years for it to acquire a nuclear
weapon. There would still be plenty of time to act.
Otherwise? Welcome to the new world order, where the U.S. can nuke any non-nuclear
country at will. Refrain from having a nuclear deterrent at your own risk. All
nations that can will become nuclear, others on their way will be nuked, and
all-out nuclear war will become an absolute certainty. Bye-bye, world.