A
CONTEST OF NARRATIVES
Regardless
of whether or not Dubya ultimately wins the GOP presidential
nomination, the Bush debacle in New Hampshire signals the
break-up
of the old Reagan coalition – and presages the demise
of the Republican Party. As I pointed out in a column on "the
coming implosion of the Bush campaign," (I hate to say
I told you so, but I told you so) the struggle for
the soul of the Republican Party is now an internecine battle
between the GOP left
and the ultra-left,
between a moderate Rockefeller
Republican and a "progressive"
Republican of the Teddy
Roosevelt school. Since there are no real ideological
differences between Bush and McCain, the contest is reduced
to one of personalities and "character" – dueling "narratives"
in which McCain is inevitably the winner. As the dissolute
scion of America's WASPiest family, Dubya admits that
he didn't do much worth doing until after the age of forty;
next to the war hero McCain – whose manic pomposity makes
him seem almost statesmanlike – Boy Dubya's adolescent
smirk is hardly presidential. Far worse, however, is Dubya's
complete lack of spontaneity and his inability to articulate
and defend his positions. Here is a candidate so woodenly
unconvincing and over- (or under-) rehearsed that he makes
Al Gore seem natural and unaffected.
A
PAPER TIGER
As
a candidate, McCain is more than a match for the princely
paper tiger: he is active, while his opponent is strangely
passive. McCain is brimming over with the moral fervor of
youth but looks the part of a gray-haired statesman and sage,
while Dubya displays the caution of a fragile old man and
the wide-eyed ignorance of a mere child. But the Bush campaign
is afflicted by far worse than a candidate with a dubious
past and a doubtful future: working against them is the obsolescence
of the cold war ideology that once energized the conservative
rank and file, and the dissolution and alienation of what
used to be their base. If the Bush people think they have
built a "firewall" in South Carolina through which McCain
cannot pass, they have fallen under the spell of their own
spinning; against the social and historical forces that are
buffeting the GOP, there is no defense. Against the moral
certainty of the demagogic McCain, it is the hollowness of
their cause as well as their candidate that doomed the Bushies
to humiliating defeat in New Hampshire – and perhaps
many more defeats down the road.
SANCTIMONY
& SWAGGER
The
booming arrogance of McCain is almost too much to be believed:
as a style of politics, his sanctimony and swagger is perfectly
suited to the vulgarity of our age: this is a man who
threw a "victory party" a full twenty-four hours before the
first votes were even cast, and grandly began to speak
as if he had already won, boldly declaring that ``I don't
know anybody who loses four or five primaries and emerges
as the front-runner, I don't care if he has a billion dollars.''
That kind of blustery self-confidence may be obnoxious –
but who will contradict him? Not the Bushies, who acted as
if they had been defeated long before the first returns were
in from Dixville Notch. . . .
SCAREDY
CATS
Hours
before the polls opened, Dubya left over a hundred supporters
and others "standing in the slush," as
the Manchester Union-Leader put
it, after canceling an appearance in Exeter,
in the politically important Seacoast area. The cancellation
was due to the quaking fear of the Bush campaign that some
kind of political protest was about to occur: but no such
event ever materialized. As the Union-Leader disdainfully
reported: "The downtown area was indeed alive with political
activity before Bush arrived, but no major protest was evident."
A few hippie environmentalists stood languidly across the
street from the spot where the Smirk was slated to materialize,
and Jim Taylor, a Democrat fringe candidate, trolled through
the crowd, making a stump speech without a stump. Passing
motorists stopped to gawk and banter, and a small squad of
Gore-istas chanted mindlessly on the sidelines. No big deal,
nothing to be afraid of – unless you're the Bush campaign,
stuck with a candidate so heavily scripted that even the remote
possibility of a single spontaneous moment is unnerving and
threatening. Better to leave your supporters and the media
in the slush than to venture out of the Bush bubble and risk
losing control. But what are the Bushies so afraid of?
WINNING
THROUGH INUNDATION
This
is the question that perplexed the voters of New Hampshire,
as Bush avoided the state for weeks, disdaining
to debate the other candidates in local forums, and making
himself relatively unavailable when he did deign to show
up at long last. It is almost as if the Bush campaign decided
to write off New Hampshire early on, as soon as they realized
that there was going to be a real contest in that highly problematic
and notoriously cantankerous state. All-too-painfully aware
of the weakness of their candidate in New Hampshire's up-close
style of campaigning, the Bush strategists figure that they
can win on bigger terrain, using their chief advantage –
money – to flood the airwaves with advertising –
a strategy that might be called winning through inundation.
The Bush "spin" on his New Hampshire humbling is that the
Granite State is sui generis, a charming but atypical
slice of Americana that hardly measures up to the politically
correct standards of the new Republican multiculturalism.
But if McCain can tie or best Bush in South Carolina, then
he can carry that momentum into California and beyond –
and all bets are off.
SPLIT
IN THE GOP
As
the idea of McCain as the GOP standard-bearer begins to take
shape as a realistic possibility, the
breakup of the two-party system begins with a gigantic
fissure dividing Republicans. Conservatives are unlikely to
stick around while McCain sings the praises of Big
Government and Nine
Inch Nails. And if Bush is now likening his insurgent
opponent to Al Gore, then Pat Buchanan is sure to take up
this very theme in the general election, while expressing
it in his own inimitable fashion: the two parties, as Pat
likes to put it, are "two wings of the same bird of prey."
Shorn of any effective leadership by Buchanan's bolt to the
Reform Party, the conservative
wing of the GOP is crippled, divided, uncertain, and so
far powerless to stop McCain in the primaries. Their only
hope is in the general election – and their only alternative
is Buchanan.
THANK
GOD AND GREYHOUND – HE'S BACK!
It
is somehow fitting that, after tangling so spectacularly in
the preliminaries, these two, Buchanan and McCain, should
meet up again in the general election. "Thank God and Greyhound
he's gone," brayed McCain at the news of Buchanan's move to
the Reform Party. If he is the GOP nominee, however, it won't
take long for McCain to know that he spoke too soon. Conservatives
bitterly resentful of the hijacking of their party will
find their voice in Buchanan. McCain's
regurgitating of half-digested smears fed to him by his neoconservative
fan club will only enrage the Right and mobilize them
behind Buchanan's banner. McCain's version of "campaign finance
reform" would virtually wipe out the major conservative political
action organizations, such as the anti-tax
groups and the pro-life
movement, or else greatly diminish their effectiveness;
his tax proposals are anathema to them and his foreign
policy is suspiciously activist with a distinctively Wilsonian-Clintonian
ring to it. The triumph of McCain in the primaries –
now a distinct possibility – would have to mean the breakup
of the conservative Republican coalition, and the permanent
alienation of the Right from the GOP.
THE
COMING REALIGNMENT
Caught
in the middle, without a clue as to what is happening to him,
the hapless
Dubya and his
puffed-up advisors are being buffeted about by forces
they cannot understand or control. As the candidate of the
Republican center, Dubya's sputtering campaign is proof that
– in the GOP, at least – the center cannot hold.
The Republican
Left, led by McCain, is in the ascendant, and the Republican
Right, led by Buchanan,
is leaving en masse. This political turmoil is the first sign
of the great realignment, a post-cold war shift in the political
landscape that augurs an era of revolutionary change. In any
seismic event of this magnitude there are bound to be a few
casualties – and if McCain makes it out to California,
then it looks like the GOP may be the first one.
THE
FOREIGN POLICY DEBATE
If
McCain should overcome the odds and win the nomination, it
would be a disaster not only for the Republican Party but
also for the peace of the world: I have detailed the candidate's
monstrous foreign policy views in this space before, and interested
parties can follow
the link for the full story. But look on the bright side:
with the added factor of Buchanan in the race, the foreign
policy question will be front and center in this race. While
most presidential candidates in modern times have had little
time for or interest in foreign affairs, both McCain and Buchanan
can be counted on to present their diametrically opposed visions
of a foreign policy for America without coaxing or compromise.
We will, at last, have a real debate on the one vital issue
totally in thrall to the vicissitudes of presidential politics:
the question of war and peace. Will we retain our republic,
or degenerate into an empire? Now there is a question
no presidential candidate has posed since the heyday of William
Jennings Bryan. As downright scary as the prospect of
McCain in the White House may be, the possibility of a really
historic debate almost makes it worth the risk.
NONE
TOO PRETTY
Like rats leaping from a sinking
ship, the political hacks and neoconservative apparatchiks
who latched on to the Bush campaign because they saw Dubya
as inevitable will follow their instincts. It won't be long
now before they'll be throwing their Bushian baggage overboard
and frantically scrambling to climb on the McCain bandwagon
as it rolls out of New Hampshire and on to South Carolina.
See how quickly they turn on their former conquering hero.
It isn't going to be pretty.
|
