Six and a half years since the ouster of the Taliban,
U.S. media attention is returning to Afghanistan, where more U.S. and NATO troops
were killed in June than in any previous month.
Indeed, as noted by both the New
York Times and the Washington
Post Wednesday, June was the second month in a row in which U.S. deaths
in Afghanistan approached the toll in Iraq, where the addition of some 30,000
troops last year and more aggressive counter-insurgency tactics have helped
to reduce sectarian violence and attacks against U.S. and allied forces.
Twenty-eight U.S. troops were killed in Afghanistan last month, just one fewer
than the 29 in Iraq, while another 18 soldiers from Washington's allies also
lost their lives to Taliban forces. The British military, which has the second-largest
contingent in Afghanistan, lost 13 soldiers, including the first servicewoman
killed in the war.
Even President George W. Bush admitted Wednesday it had been a "tough
month" in Afghanistan, insisting, however that the increase in the death
toll showed that the coalition forces were taking the offensive.
"You know, one reason why there have been more deaths is because our troops
are taking the fight to a tough enemy, an enemy who doesn't like our presence
there because they don't like the idea of America denying safe haven,"
Bush told reporters in the White House Rose Garden.
And while most analysts agreed that the increase in the number of coalition
deaths was indeed a result of U.S., British, Canadian, and Dutch forces, in
particular, moving into areas in the eastern part of Afghanistan where their
presence had previously been sporadic, they also credited a sharp rise in Taliban
activity and its adoption of more unconventional tactics, including the use
of explosive devices imported from the Iraq war.
"What it points to is that the opposition is becoming more effective,"
Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University, told the Post.
"It is having a presence in more areas, being better organized, better
financed, and having a sustainable strategy. In all, their strategic situation
has improved."
Indeed, the record of the last two months has suggested that the Taliban is
at least as much on the offensive as U.S.-led forces, which together have reached
an all-time high of well some 60,000 troops, of which about half are from U.S.
allies operating under NATO command.
In addition to the growing death toll, the Taliban mounted a particularly bold
assassination attempt against President Hamid Karzai during a military parade
in Kabul in late April, and in mid-June staged a spectacular jailbreak in Kandahar
that freed hundreds of suspected collaborators and subsequently seized and briefly
held seven villages around Afghanistan's second-largest city.
Just last week, a new Pentagon report the first review of the situation
in Afghanistan since the U.S.-led invasion in late 2000 concluded that
the Taliban has effectively "coalesced into a resilient insurgency"
that was spreading into previously relatively peaceful parts of the country.
The report also predicted that violence already at unprecedented levels
since the Taliban's ouster will likely increase through the rest of the
year. Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Schloesser, the top U.S. commander in eastern Afghanistan,
told reporters that attacks in his sector increased by 40 percent in the first
five months this year compared to the same period in 2007.
While no one believes that the Taliban is powerful enough to oust the Karzai
government or defeat or even directly challenge U.S. and NATO
forces there, the Pentagon has been arguing for several months that it needs
at least 10,000 more troops deployed to Afghanistan to adequately cope with
resurgent insurgency.
But where those troops will come from remains a major question. In late March,
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he would send 1,000 more troops to Afghanistan.
Germany last week announced that it would send some 1,000 troops later this
fall to bring its total force there to some 4,500, but the conditions attached
by Berlin to their deployment forbid their involvement in combat.
The Pentagon, which added 3,000 marines to its Afghan force earlier this year,
has been unable to come up with more of its own troops because of Bush's insistence
that nothing be done to put at risk the relative stability that his "surge"
strategy in Iraq has helped achieve. As a result, the current drawdown from
Iraq from 170,000 troops earlier this year to some 140,000 troops by August
will be suspended at the end of this month.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the Pentagon brass had hoped withdrawals
would continue at roughly 5,000 troops a month beyond July, thus freeing up
many more troops for deployment to Afghanistan. But those hopes have now been
put on hold indefinitely to the clear frustration of Gates and the chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen.
Public support for more troops in countries that are expected to supply them
is also growing increasingly doubtful. Indeed, a recent multi-national Pew Global
Attitudes Project poll conducted in April that is, before the bloody
months of May and June found bare pluralities of respondents in the U.S.
and Britain in favor of "keep[ing] troops in Afghanistan until the situation
is stabilized" as opposed to removing them.
In NATO members France, Germany, Spain, Poland, and Turkey, on the other hand,
majorities ranging from 54 percent to 72 percent said they believed the U.S.
and NATO should withdraw. Only in Australia, a non-NATO country that has contributed
combat troops to both Afghanistan and Iraq, did a strong majority (60 percent)
say they preferred to stay.
Some experts, however, believe that even adding troops at least in the
quantities the Pentagon believes is necessary will not appreciably redress
the deteriorating dynamics in Afghanistan if other key factors, including the
growing perception that the Karzai government is ineffective and corrupt, the
lack of development, and the continuing increase in the opium and heroin trade
which help finance the Taliban, are not addressed.
At least, if not more, important is the safe haven enjoyed by Taliban forces
in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier
Province in Pakistan, much of which has come under the control of the Pakistan's
own Taliban and allied forces.
Relations between Washington and the Pakistani military have reportedly deteriorated
badly in recent weeks over U.S. pressure on Islamabad to prevent the infiltration
of Taliban forces from the Pakistani side of the border, and the new civilian-led
government, which is still working out internal divisions on key issues, appears
unprepared to deal with the problem.
"No matter how many more troops you add into Afghanistan, you won't really
be able to get at the root of the problem" of safe havens in Pakistan,
Rubin told a public-television interviewer last week.