|
December
25, 2003
Quo Vadis?
What’s
in Store for 2004
by Nebojsa Malic
Another
year has gone by, bringing no relief to the embattled people
of the former Yugoslavia. Same as before, it has been a year
of direct and political violence, plunder and extortion, with
the ever-present Empire occasionally flexing
its muscles to remind the restive vassals it was still
the boss. Shards of the former South Slav federation continue
to struggle in the aftermath of succession wars, international
embargoes, societal meltdowns and even global
terrorism.
As
2003 drifts to a close, several simmering Balkans issues remain
unresolved. Croatia has just seen a restoration to power of
a party that ruled it through the Succession Wars. Serbia
will choose a new parliament and government for the first
time since the October Coup overthrew Slobodan Milosevic.
Meanwhile, efforts continue to establish its occupied province
of Kosovo as an Albanian-dominated state. Bosnia continues
to slide back towards centralization, one of the root causes
of its bloody civil war. Macedonia continues to walk the tightrope
of ethnic quotas imposed by the capitulation at Ohrid. What
lies ahead, in 2004?
Croatia’s
"Sanader Restoration"
Three
years after losing power, the resurgent party of the late
Franjo Tudjman is back
at the helm in Zagreb. Much has changed since 2000, though,
both within the HDZ party and in Croatia itself. Gone are
the heady days of 1995, when Tudjman was America’s "junkyard
dog" and Croatia could do no wrong. Zagreb is just
another vassal now, one expected to bow and obey like the
others.
The
previous government waffled on giving Washington immunity
from the International Criminal Court, and wasn’t able to
rebuff the shrill demands of the Hague Inquisition to extradite
the "Hero of the Homeland War," General Ante
Gotovina. Gotovina commanded the forces that expelled
most of Croatia’s Serbs in a 1995 military operation supported
by the US, and many of his backers complain
bitterly that he should not be penalized for doing Washington’s
bidding. Furthermore, the Empire is now playing dumb and chiding
Croatia for violating
the "human rights" of expelled Serbs, as if
unaware of its own role in the entire affair.
It
is to be expected that the Empire will pressure the new government
on all these issues, if nothing just to establish who is calling
the shots. As a reminder, the official media recently demonstrated
to Zagreb the kind of bad
press usually reserved for the Serbs. Schoolyard bullying
passing as international relations – that is the sad fact
of life in the 21st century.
But
to be fair, Croatia has some vocal apologists
in Washington, and does not have to struggle with anywhere
as much as its neighbor to the east.
Serbia’s
Choices
The
most populous of Yugoslavia’s successor states, Serbia is
also the most unstable. After the 2000 coup that ousted Slobodan
Milosevic from power, it fell into the grip of an autocratic
Prime Minister who proceeded to destroy all institutions
of government for the sake of personal power – but always
claiming he was doing it for the greater good. Zoran Djindjic
was so successful in his quest for power that when he was
cut down
by a sniper bullet, Serbia had no president, a rump parliament,
and a union
with Montenegro so loose it may as well have been nonexistent.
His followers quickly declared
martial law, proceeded to arrest thousands and crack down
on "thought crimes" such as journalistic inquiry.
But the outrage over Djindjic’s murder did not translate into
long-term support, and by early fall, the DOS regime was falling
apart. After another failed presidential
vote, it could no longer survive.
Polls
in Serbia are notoriously inaccurate, so it is not at all
clear who might triumph in the parliamentary election three
days from now. The Empire dreads
and loathes
the potential success of the Radicals, as do its friends
and servants in Belgrade. Milosevic’s Socialists, allegedly
finished, may win as many mandates as the late Djindjic’s
Democratic Party. Combinations
that include a coalition of the Democrats, Vojislav Kostunica’s
Serbian Democrats, and the neo-Keynesians of G-17 are mostly
wishful thinking. There has even been talk of restoring
the monarchy, unfortunately tainted by misguided political
motivations.
It
may be tempting to support certain people, parties and policies
just because the Empire opposes them. That, unfortunately,
does not mean their ideas and convictions are any good – just
not good enough for Washington and Brussels. Whoever wins,
a government will be elected; and it will have such power
and influence over every aspect of life, yet be completely
at the mercy of the Empire, that nothing good can come of
it. But electing someone who does not dance to an outside
tune could be a step in the right direction.
Whither
Kosovo?
Begun
in June 1999, the occupation of Kosovo on behalf of the Albanian
separatists continues, as does the violence against the surviving
non-Albanians:
"It
was on behalf of [the UCK] that the US scrapped the NATO charter
and violated international law by committing
naked aggression against a sovereign state, and
occupying one portion thereof. That occupation has gone on
for over four years now, and has resulted in over 200,000
ethnically cleansed non-Albanians, at least 112
destroyed churches and monuments of culture, and
constant terror against the remaining non-Albanian population.
This happened because of, not in spite of, some 60,000 NATO
troops who occupied Kosovo. That's half the troops occupying
a much-bigger Iraq. The UCK-led violence was not only not
prevented, but legitimized by holding elections
for a "president," and "parliament" of Kosovo. The UCK itself
was re-organized into the "Kosovo
Protection Corps," paid by the UN/NATO to deal
with ‘disaster relief.’ But the only disaster in Kosovo was
of NATO's own making." (from The
Lost Terror War)
Even
as undercover British reporters uncovered a terrorist
weapons ring, Washington has pushed forward a new initiative
to achieve "standards"
for deciding the "final status" of Kosovo. The way
they were worded by the province’s UN administration, Albanians
have only to maintain a pretense of tolerance with politically
correct rhetoric, and they are guaranteed independence in
2005. Protests by local Serbs and Belgrade have met with the
usual dismissals.
There
has never been any doubt that Albanians are united
over the issue of claiming Kosovo. If NATO and the UN – dancing
to the tune from Washington, of course – actually support
the Albanian cause, there isn’t much that Serb protests can
accomplish. But there really ought to be a way to stop this
creeping amputation, an affront to civilized international
conduct if there ever was one.
Bosnia’s
Slippery Slope
The
passing of Alija
Izetbegovic in October had surprisingly little effect
on the Bosnian political scene, testifying to the staying
power of his ideology. The expected power struggle within
his SDA party appears to be taking place in private. With
the current viceroy firmly on their side, as his eulogy
for Izetbegovic demonstrated, there is little danger of the
SDA losing its grip on power. Endorsements from former
American potentates
didn’t seem to hurt, either.
Gradually
demolishing the Dayton constitution, Bosnia’s occupying viceroys
– often with the help of local authorities – continue to drag
the hapless
country towards becoming a centralized state. Each new
violation is justified by a perceived greater good. Establishing
a standing conscript army under central command is thus supposed
to help Bosnia join NATO some day, even though there is no
benefit in such a membership. Forcible integration of intelligence
and security agencies is supposed to help fight crime and
terrorism – but the biggest criminals run the security
apparatus, while certain intelligence services help terrorists
daily. Now a special "war crimes court" has been
established, and
already there are calls for a centralized police force
to enforce its rulings.
The
slope towards centralism gets more slippery by the day. Instead
of a bigger state, or more of it, people of Bosnia need just
the opposite. But robbed of possessions, hope and dignity,
they continue mistakenly placing their trust in politicians
and force.
Macedonia
Mired
Some
2 million Macedonians enter 2004 still in the shadow of Albanian
territorial and political claims. The 2001 Treaty
of Ohrid has been institutionalized, establishing ethnic
quotas and special treatment as a fact of daily life. The
recently completed census
will in all likelihood usher a new round of games over ethnic
percentages in government employment.
Albanian
militants have lowered their profile, but remain active. Foreign
presence is still substantial. Various NGOs are eating
away at the fraying fabric of society, and further upsetting
the already precarious economy. The Empire controls local
authorities to various degrees, ensuring their cooperation
and compliance. Much like its northern neighbor, Skopje was
not allowed to defend its territory and constitution – indeed,
it was forced to capitulate – but was encouraged to send
a unit to assist the occupation of Iraq.
Efforts
of Empire’s agents to disarm
the populace have been only partially successful, but the
real problem is not the presence of so many weapons, but the
readiness and desire to use them.
Balkans
and the Empire
Throughout
2003, the Empire has remained a major factor in Balkans politics,
even as the Mesopotamian mess commanded more of its attention
and resources. It continued to threaten
and demand, as well as use
the precedents it created from Yugoslavia’s carcass (albeit
without a shred of consistency,
as could be expected). Another "revolution" was
engineered, in the Caucasus, using
the script developed in 2000 for Serbia. Even as it schemed
to detach Kosovo from Serbia, it prepared to accept the Serbian
quislings’ offer of troops
for Afghanistan.
Wishful
thinking about changes in US policy after 9/11 does not
seem to be borne out in reality. While Bush II has been nowhere
nearly as aggressive in the Balkans as Clinton, the overall
policy has remained the same. Absolute obedience to every
whim is still demanded of Belgrade, and to some extent even
Zagreb, while the militants in Sarajevo and Pristina get away
with a slap on the wrist, if that. Washington may be drawing
down its troop presence in Bosnia and Kosovo, but there is
no sign it intends to abandon its political influence in the
area.
Finally,
the new grand
strategy for American foreign relations seeks to reshape
the world into a semblance of today’s Balkans, using intervention
methods pioneered in Bosnia and Kosovo.
No
Triumph for Tyranny
Across
the Balkans the same story is playing out: abused by their
own authorities as well as the Empire, people turn to politicians
and violence – whether direct or institutional – to solve
their problems. Yet all that does is deepen the despair.
However
clear the answer may seem from here, it is far from obvious
to them. Long have they been pawns of the government, in servitude
to the state. Not just the words, but the very concepts
of freedom, honor and justice have lost their meaning.
Until it is rediscovered, there will be little but abstract
hope, and 2004 will look just like 2003 and the years before.
It
was just a century ago that people of the Balkans fought ferociously
for their freedom, so much that one simple act of tyrannicide
ended up shattering the world of Imperial Europe. Have the
horrors of the 20th century killed that freedom-loving
streak in Europe’s southwestern corner? That is truly hard
to believe.
If
people truly wish to stop being treated as cattle, they should
stop behaving as such. And when by some chance that forlorn
faith in freedom is found again, no matter by how few, there
will be no victory for despair, no triumph for tyranny. And
the new year, this one or the one thereafter, will truly be
better.
Here’s
to hope.
–
Nebojsa Malic
|
comments
on this article?
|
|
|
Please Support Antiwar.com
Send
contributions to
Antiwar.com
1017 El Camino Real #306
Redwood City, CA 94063
or
Contribute Via our Secure Server
Credit Card Donation Form
Your
contributions are now tax-deductible
|
