A striking but little-noted contrast between the gulf
war of 1991 and the war to which we are building up -
some stubborn part of me wants to believe it isn't
inevitable - is in the costs of the war and who is
expected to bear them. The contrast is worth
exploring.
As many noted at the time, the United States not only
persuaded other countries - chiefly Saudi Arabia, Japan,
Germany and Kuwait - to pay for the 1991 Persian Gulf
War, but might have made a small profit of $2 billion or
$3 billion.
Andrew Bacevich, who now teaches international
relations at Boston University, was in the military in
Germany shortly after the war. He told me on the phone
recently that repairs to any equipment that had been in
the gulf were charged to a special account, even if the
wear and tear had really occurred in Germany months
later.
The war went so swimmingly from a financial point of
view that pundits for a time discussed it as a model for
the post-communist world: The United States uses its
military to put out brush fires and defuse problems and
the rest of the world pays the bills and is grateful for
the stability.
It hasn't quite worked out that way.
U.S. taxpayers paid full freight for most of the
Clinton administration's desultory excursions into
nation-building with bombs, in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia,
Kosovo and beyond. Now that Bush II wants another war
with Iraq, not only is no other country offering to pay
the bills, we have to bribe other countries to join up.
This sole superpower business is getting to be
expensive.
Nobody knows the direct cost of waging the war
itself. It wasn't included in the budget Bush presented
to Congress - one that already included the biggest
increases in domestic nondiscre- tionary spending in
decades and the biggest deficits yet.
Former Bush economic adviser Larry Lindsey, in one of
those moments of relative honesty that the political
class calls gaffes, last September offhandedly estimated
the cost at about $200 billion. That was an estimate
rather than a considered calculation, and it would be
prudent to treat it as a lowball estimate. The first
gulf war cost about $60 billion. The equipment is more
expensive now, and the objective more ambitious. It is
unlikely to be over in 100 hours.
What about subsequent occupation/transition costs?
Tough to figure. Nobody knows how long the United States
plans to stay. Economists cited in a recent
International Herald Tribune article estimate the
seven-year cost of failing to rebuild Bosnia at about
$15 billion - and that's not including the costs of NATO
soldiers, humanitarian aid and resettlement of a million
refugees. Iraq is bigger and probably more intractable.
Then there are the costs of getting others to go
along.
Just a few weeks ago Israel was asking for $8 billion
in commercial loan guarantees over and above the just
less than $3 billion a year in aid it gets virtually
automatically - the ongoing bonus for going to Camp
David with Jimmy Carter (Egypt gets about the same).
Israel also has asked for $4 billion in additional
military assistance.
What the United States gets for this is unclear. An
agreement from Israel not to enter the war and aggravate
Arab countries if Iraq launches only a few missiles? The
aid is not contingent on progress in the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Then there's Turkey, recently rebuffed (correctly in
my view) by France, Belgium and Germany after a request
for NATO help if Iraq counter-attacked Turkey after a
U.S. attack on Iraq. But don't weep for Turkey. It's
getting AWACS and Patriot missiles anyway. And it's
exacting a high and rising price for any agreement to
allow U.S. forces to use bases in Turkish territory.
A couple of weeks ago the United States was offering
about $14 billion in direct aid and loan guarantees, up
from a previous estimated price of $10 billion. Now the
offer is around $26 billion ($6 billion grants, $20
billion loan guarantees) and Turkey says it's still too
small. Turkey wants more like $32 billion, claiming it
suffered costs in the last gulf war that were never
compensated, expects to incur risks and costs this time,
and needs a carrot to offer the Turkish people who,
according to polls, overwhelmingly oppose a U.S.
invasion of Iraq.
Turkey also wants to occupy some of the oil fields in
the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq - and probably a
guarantee from the United States to squelch any possible
upstart Kurdish rebellion.
Russia had an $8 billion oil deal, providing support
services, equipment and the like, with Iraq. It is
likely it is being coy just now in hopes of getting the
best deal - not only a guarantee that U.S. taxpayers
will cover that $8 billion in expected revenue if war
makes the deal go sour, but a decent cut of the Iraqi
oil spoils after the war.
France was cut out of the oil spoils after the first
gulf war, and many thought it was holding out to get a
guarantee of the spoils this time. But it might just be
acting on principle or on irreducible hostility to war,
so maybe it won't be in at the kill.
Qatar, which has welcomed U.S. troops and equipment,
is getting something, but nobody seems to know what or
how much. Oman and Yemen have to be getting something.
Djibouti, where U.S. intelligence operatives are
tracking al-Qaida and building infrastructure, will be
getting money and aid, but again nobody knows how much.
In 1991 the world paid the United States to drive
Saddam out of Kuwait. Now the United States has to bribe
people to be allies. What does that tell us about the
wisdom and prudence of the current cause?