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A
strange but titilating image keeps playing before my eyes. A convey
of Russian tanks is heading down Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi, the capital
of Georgia, just as they did in December 1991 when the country’s first
democratically – elected government was brutally overthrown. Only
this time the tanks are greeted by cheering crowds and the Russian soldiers
carried aloft by an almost insanely happy populace.
Meanwhile,
Georgian president, Eduard Shevardnadze has fled to the US embassy.
With his family hastily gathered around him he boards one of the brand
new American Hughes helicopters delivered to him just before last year’s
parliamentary election and flees the country. The scene is starkly reminiscent
of the disgraced Ceausescu’s departure from Bucharest just ten years
ago. However, Shevardnadze escapes lynching by the mob and reappears
in Britain to become the head of a prestigious Oxford college.
But,
down to earth one must come. Although with not such a resounding bump
as usual. The war in Chechnya has made life rather uncomfortable for
Eduard Shevardnadze. Over the past few months Moscow has charged Georgia
on numerous occasions with helping rebels fighting the Russian army
in Chechnya. Whatever the truth of these allegations, geography is the
problem. Chechnya and Georgia share a common border in mountainous terrain
that is near impossible to monitor effectively. And, as the Russian
army has swept south in pursuit of fleeing rebels the action is getting
perilously close.
There
have been other bones of contention too. For one thing, Russia is threatening
to introduce a visa regime with Georgia ostensibly to prevent terrorists
entering the country. For another, Russian promises to close two of
its military bases in Georgia– at Vaziani near Tbilisi and Gudauta –
have failed to be met. Whenever the topic comes up it is met with evasion
and a tendency to move the goal posts.
What
to do? Many observers, rightly, see Georgia as pivotal in the new great
game involving the control of oil and gas reserves in the Caspian region.
Should the country fall back into the Russian sphere of influence transportation
of these resources through Georgia and onto Western markets could be
stymied.
Shevardnadze
has edged closer to the West and NATO in the past year. In May 1999
Georgia was made an associate member of NATO’s parliamentary assembly.
On 23rd February, Strobe Talbott issued a stern warning on
CNN to the Russians to lay off Georgia and later in the week Robin Cook
was advocating a speedier entry into "EuroAtlantic structures."
But, despite the tough talk, it is difficult to imagine the West intervening
militarily to protect its interests there. Bluster and rhetoric, rather
than NATO’s bombs, is all that has accompanied Western disapproval of
the Chechen war so far.
The
enigma, as ever, is acting-president Putin. In public he dissembles
and calls for the independence of the former Soviet republics to be
respected. But is he to be trusted? And is Shevardnadze totally beholden
to his new Western allies? Some people think that he may have done a
deal with Moscow that would allow the Russians to enter the country
in pursuit of Chechen militants. They point to the fact that Georgian
inhabitants of villages at the border with Russia have not been provided
with any means of defending themselves against an invasion.
No
politician in the post-Communist world has received such glowing testimonies
and such overall support from the West as Eduard Shevardnadze. Numerous
prestigious and well-funded prizes have been showered upon him. Last
year alone he was awarded the Baker Institute’s prize for Distinguished
public service and in the autumn he was given the Averill Harriman Medal
of Freedom by the National Institute for Democracy.
The
love-affair began when he was the Soviet Union’s last Foreign Minister
and the edifice of Communism was crumbling. The relationship he built
up with then Secretary of State, James Baker, continued when he returned
to run Georgia in 1992 after Zviad Gamsakhurdia had been removed from
office.
The
list of politicians who have loved to shmooze with him is long and glittering.
In the early days, apart from Baker, there were George Schulz and Hans-Dietrich
Genscher. Yet, Shevardnadze speaks no foreign languages and, as far
as I know, is neither a wit, a scholar nor man of learning. He is a
classic old Soviet apparatchik. But, he is also ‘our’ old Soviet apparatchik,
for some observers think that Shevy was ‘turned’, so to speak, and is
now at the beck-and-call of Langley, Virginia rather than Moscow. The
fascination he holds over the suits from Washington and Bonn is probably
best compared with the poacher turned gamekeeper or some kind of exotic
transvestite.
However,
to most ordinary Georgians Shevardnadze is best remembered as the former
head of the Georgian KGB and ruthless Communist Party leader. And, since
he returned to power eight years ago they have had no reason to change
their minds. I happen to agree with them. During frequent visits to
Georgia since October 1992 I have not seen any evidence that Shevardnadze
has changed into a respectable democrat worthy of the myriad honours
bestowed upon him.
During
his ‘reign’ the living conditions of ordinary people have plunged disastrously.
Georgia’s infrastructure and economy seem permanently on the brink of
collapse. Whereas the country had been something of a show-case during
Soviet times it is now more like a third world basket-case. Even seasoned
anti-Soviets look back to the old days with nostalgia.
For
years now there has been no regular supply of electricity. People living
in high rise flats long ago erected makesift stoves to heat their apartments
with wood fires. Dangerous and hardly the stuff of the 21st
century. The sale of Tbilisi’s electricity company to an American company
last year has not made a jot of difference.
There
is no public health system – everything from drugs to hospital treatment
has to be paid for. There is little economic activity. People seem to
neither work nor take vacations, in ways familiar to the West, anyway.
Average wages – for those lucky enough to work are less than $80 per
month. Yet, surreal solutions are always at hand: Mr. Shevardnadze recently
said that every school in Georgia would have a computer – powered by
what?
Serious
opposition is frowned upon and those accused of political crimes are
held in the most appalling conditions in jails rife with TB. In 1996
I visited the hospital in Tbilisi’s main prison where patients lay untended
in filth and squalor, many of them on the point of death. The authorities
provided no food to the inmates: families and friends had to bring supplies
which were often left uneaten, rotting in metal bowls surrounded by
flies and mosquitoes. The smell of urine was overpowering – even
a member of the prison authorities retched as he left the building.
The
country also hosts over 200,000 refugees from Georgia’s war in the breakaway
region of Abkhazia. The lucky ones are housed in two of Tbilisi’s main
hotels. The rest languish in abandoned Soviet buildings all over the
country, often living 5 to a room. In January 1999 in one such place
near Kutaisi a man lay dying in agony from complications of TB. There
was no medication and no help from the numerous international organizations
that flood the country.
The
refugees blamed Shevardnadze for their plight and their hatred for the
West’s favourite democratic was almost uncontrollable. It is, therefore,
unsurprising that they might be disenfranchised in the forthcoming Georgian
election. It has been suggested that people like them who only possess
old Soviet passports should not be allowed to vote.
Many
think that the presence of large number of refugees enables the state
to keep the aid bandwagon rolling. UNHCR admits there is little it can
do when most of the aid sent to Georgia is stolen. It is also interesting
to note that whenever refugees have attempted to return to their homes
in Abkhazia an ‘incident’ has occurred which has driven them into back
into the arms of the Georgian state.
These
are things that I have seen with my own eyes. Yet, little criticism
is levelled at the Shevardnadze regime. Human rights groups spend far
more time pursuing (retired) General Pinochet or criticizing people
like Jörg Haider who has not tortured or killed anybody. Last June
Georgia received the ultimate accolade of international respectability
when it was welcomed into the Council of Europe with a positive report
on its human rights record.
Yet,
all elections held since 1992 when Shevardnadze seized power have been
rigged. This has not stopped the usual international alphabet soup bodies
hailing them as great breakthroughs for democracy. So entwined is the
apparat in Tbilisi with its patrons in Washington that the American
embassy’s web site boasts that "the Georgian CEC [Central Election
Commission] and the US Government will jointly announce the 1998 election
report." When a delegation from the Council of Europe delivered
their (glowing) report to television cameras on the conduct of the 1995
election they did so from outside Shevardnadze’s private office. It
is little wonder that love for the West is spread very thinly in Georgia
today.
However,
there is a lot of opposition to the Shevardnadze regime. In the last
5 years there have been two assassination attempts (quite apart from
numerous threats of violence) against Shevardnadze himself. Cynics say
that these incidents were staged to provide an excuse to clamp down
on dissidents – it is certainly true that many known oppositionists
have been rounded up in the aftermath.
Needless
to say, the West has responded by backing Shevardnadze more ferociously
than ever: in 1995 former German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel sent
the beleaguered head of state an armour-plated Mercedes to protect him
from further attacks. The sound of this monstrous machine relaying the
‘popular’ head of state around Tbilisi literally rocks the foundations
of neighbouring buildings.
But
a more serious opposition comes from the western region of Ajaria where
the local leader, Aslan Abashidze, is challenging the president in forthcoming
elections on 9th April. In another classic example of civil
society Georgian-style Abashidze has regularly accused Shevardnadze
of plotting to kill him. He certainly takes no precautions as he strolls
around the local capital Batumi surrounded by gun-toting guards. Snipers
keep watch from the roof of the regional parliament.
However,
whatever the faults of Abashidze the comparison between life in Batumi
and Tbilisi is startling. The former is clean, well-run with small shops
and affordable restaurants; Ajaria itself looks prosperous in contrast
to the devastation that marks the rest of Georgia. Salaries are paid
on time and the electricity works. In any normal democracy people would
be turning out in droves to vote for Abashidze but in the last parliamentary
election his party Revival trailed Shevardnadze’s Citizens Union. The
usual Western commentators predict another victory for the ‘popular’
president in the April poll.
But
can the West hold on to Georgia for ever? The rhetoric from Moscow is
gaining momentum by the day. On 19th February the Russians
alleged that 400-1000 Chechen fighters were on Georgian territory. On
28th February news agencies reported that the fighting was
getting close to the strategic Argun gorge which the Russians allege
is the key channel for rebel supplies and reinforcements coming from
Georgia. Hot pursuit may not be far off: according to Lt. General Gennadi
Troshev (reported in ITAR-TASS) air power is unsuitable for destroying
local rebel strongholds.
If
Shevardnadze’s regime was to fall no tears would be shed in Georgia
other that among the small group of Western-sponsored nomenklaturists
and profiteers. The Russians would return as heroes. What that other
hero, Senator John McCain called "this plucky little democracy"
could be free, liberated (ironically) by its former oppressors in to
the north. However, help for Shevardnadze might still be at hand. Last
week Robin Cook, the Lord Byron of Kosovo, told the government in Tbilisi
that he was prepared to "share with Georgia his experience in settling
conflicts." Surely there can be no better prospect for any country’s
future well-being than that.
Christine
Stone is a lawyer and journalist who has visited Georgia on several
occasions since 1992.
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