Whither Goes Turkey?
by Everett Thiele
March 17, 2003

Yesterday it was widely reported that about 10 U.S. Navy ships armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles left the eastern Mediterranean for the Red Sea. The United States has apparently decided not to wait any longer for approval to use Turkish air bases or airspace for an attack on Iraq. It will take five or six days for these ships to travel through the Suez Canal and reach positions from which they can fire missiles at Iraq via Saudi Arabian air space.

Turkey's refusal to grant fly-over rights closely followed the March 1 vote in parliament that denied approval for the deployment of up to 62,000 U.S. troops, who were to attack Iraq from Turkey and open the so-called northern front. On March 6 the London Guardian reported Turkey's incoming prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as saying "It would be good to see the UN Security Council's decisions. We will determine what steps to take after we have seen them.'' So, the failure of the U.S. and Britain to gain Security Council approval for their second resolution doomed their chances for a quick solution to their problems with Turkey.

Besides the loss of the ability to attack Iraq from the North, this rejection by Turkey has long range implications. Bradley Graham writes in the Washington Post, on March 3, "… a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq without Turkey would not only substantially weaken administration claims of international support but also do critical long-term damage to relations with an important NATO and Muslim-populated ally…."

The long-term damage is particularly critical because of Turkey's geographical location. It sits between Europe and Asia. It borders, among other countries, Bulgaria on the west, Iran on the east and Syria and Iraq on the south. This geographical location is critical to two long-range strategic goals of the United States. The first has to do with the political stability of the region vis-à-vis Israel.

In the now infamous 1996 report, prepared for the then-incoming Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Richard Perle and Douglas Feith (among others) wrote: "… the 'natural axis' with Israel on one side, central Iraq and Turkey on the other, and Jordan, in the center would squeeze and detach Syria from the Saudi Peninsula." Isolating and weakening Syria is clearly an important goal for Israeli dominance in the region. But this requires the continuation of good Israeli and U.S. relations with Turkey.

The second goal has to do with U.S. dominance of world oil supplies. Zalmay Khalizad writes in the Wall Street Journal Dec 22, 1997

"... the two countries [Turkey and the U.S.] should work together to ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Basin regions. The U.S. already has security commitments in the Gulf, an area that is vital to the world's oil supplies. The relative importance of the Caspian region is growing, though, due to it tremendous oil and gas reserves. Turkish military facilities provide an excellent location for projecting power to both the gulf and the Caspian Basin. Much of the world's energy resources are within 1,000 miles of Incirlik. Access to the Turkish bases can reduce the amount of military presence required in some of the Gulf Cooperation Council states. Turkey is also a viable pipeline route for bringing some of the oil and gas from the Caspian to world markets."

Afghan born, Zalmay Khalizad is a member of the National Security Council. He was President Bush's special envoy to Afghanistan and is now taking on similar duties to various groups who might play a role in the post Saddam government in Iraq. This is not the place to get into details about Khalizad's career. It's sufficient to say there is no doubt that he knows the politics of oil.

Two things have changed since Khalizad wrote that piece in 1997. The U.S. now has military bases in Afghanistan and other "stan" countries, so they don't need Turkish bases to project U.S. power into the Caspian Basin. We have also learned that the Caspian Basin is not nearly as rich in oil reserves as we thought in 1997. But, it is exceedingly rich in natural gas reserves. So Turkey is still a viable pipeline route for bringing gas from the Caspian to markets in Europe.

If U.S. long-term relations with Muslim Turkey are in fact critically damaged, look to France to begin mending its political fences with Turkey. Could Turkey become a part of "old Europe"? We might also see Syria making overtures to the Turks. The loss of Turkey can upset the balance of power in the region to the detriment of the U.S. But then the neocon hawks in the Bush administration, like Perle, Feith and Khalizad don't really need long term alliances…not when they have all those bombs.

Everett Thiele has a PhD from the University of Rochester in Physical Chemistry, was an antiwar protester during Vietnam War, and is currently retired and living in Mexico.