Well, if you're worried that Bush's next war of
aggression will involve nukes, there's good news and bad news.
First the Good News.
The Cheney Cabal has apparently concluded that their previous ridiculous argument
isn't working. That Iran's nuclear programs – albeit Safeguarded by the International
Atomic Energy Agency – are somehow an existential threat to you and yours and
have to be "taken out," using nukes "if necessary."
So, increasingly, the Cheney Cabal argues that we have to launch a war of aggression
against Iran because the Shi'ite Iranians are somehow responsible for the "murder"
of American soldiers in neighboring Iraq by Sunni Iraqi insurgents.
Last week Senator Joe Lieberman got the Senate to pass (97-0) a "Sense
of Congress" that
"(1) the murder of members of the United States Armed Forces by a
foreign government or its agents is an intolerable and unacceptable act of hostility
against the United States by the foreign government in question; and
"(2) the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran must take immediate
action to end all training, arming, equipping, funding, advising, and any other
forms of support that it or its agents are providing, and have provided, to
Iraqi militias and insurgents, who are contributing to the destabilization of
Iraq and are responsible for the murder of members of the United States Armed
According to Lieberman;
"The threat posed by Iran to our soldiers, to our allies, and to our
national security is a truth that cannot be wished or waved away. Congress today
began the process of confronting it.''
Who does Lieberman consider "our allies"?
Well, apparently, the puppet governments we have installed by force of arms
in Iraq and Afghanistan.
And, right on cue, U.S.
News and World Report chronicled current US efforts to confront the
alleged Iranian threat to our soldiers and to our national security in Afghanistan.
According to "Afghan officials," Iran "is supporting local warlords"
who control most of Western Afghanistan "with trained men and arms."
So, that's the good news. Bush's next war of aggression will be probably be
against a country which everyone now knows doesn't have nukes or even a nuke
program. Bush's new rationale for his war will not involve nonexistent Iranian
nukes, but rather unproven Iranian complicity in the "murder" of Americans
in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Now, here's the bad news.
Suppose Bush's next war of aggression is against Pakistan.
A few days ago, some dirty guys ambushed a Pakistani military convoy somewhere
"near the Afghan border," killing 17 Pakistani troops.
The Bush-Cheney White House immediately demanded
that our "ally," Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf, establish control
of those "tribal" areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan over which he
obviously now has little, if any, control.
Spokesman Tony Snow even threatened attacks against – and invasion of – Pakistan
because "it is clearly of the utmost importance to go in there and deal
with the problem in the tribal areas."
Well, according to the most recent National
Intelligence Estimate, over the past two years al Qaeda has reestablished
it central organization, training infrastructure and lines of global communication
in those "tribal" areas, resulting in a "heightened threat environment"
for our "homeland."
But White House threats to "go in" to those "tribal areas"
can only magnify the already serious threats, to Musharraf's life, as well as
to his control of Pakistan and its
arsenal of "Islamic" nukes.
Recall that, on 28 May, 1998, Pakistan stunned the world by answering Indian
nuke tests with nuke tests of its own, of at least two different designs, at
least one being Uranium-235 based and another Plutonium-239 based.
Proud Pakistan is the only country among the 57 members of the Organization
of the Islamic Conference to not only have a nuke arsenal, but to have developed
from scratch a complete nuke weapons infrastructure, including state-of-the-art
weapons-grade uranium enrichment, plutonium and tritium production facilities.
Pakistan currently produces enough highly enriched uranium to make nine or
10 nukes each year. Furthermore, since 1998, they could have been producing
10 to 15 kilograms of Plutonium per year in their heavy-water, natural-uranium
reactor at Kushab.
But, the Kushab reactor can be used to produce tritium – rather than Plutonium
– to be used in "boosted" weapons. If you know what that means, keep it to yourself.
If you don't, it means the Pakistanis know how to make small deliverable fission
nukes. The Kushab reactor – if used to produce tritium – would produce enough
to boost perhaps 20 or so small sophisticated fission weapons, with design yields
of up to 100KT.
Pakistan is also manufacturing very pure reactor-grade graphite and has its
own heavy-water plant. Hence, Pakistan has the capability to build additional
plutonium-tritium production reactors and is now constructing one which will
be at least as productive as the existing Kushab reactor.
Pakistani, like India and Israel, is not a signatory to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation
of Nuclear Weapons.
So, unlike an invasion of Iran, an invasion of Pakistan – resulting in Musharraf
being killed or deposed – could easily result in nukes being used, not all of
Here is what Dictator Musharraf had to say seven years ago in an awards ceremony
for the "fathers" – both named Kahn – of Islamic nukes.
"I would like to reiterate this resolve on this occasion, loud and
clear in military terms: Death before dishonor.
"I would also like to say to you, the new custodians of the nation's
nuclear capability, that my government will provide you with every possible
political and financial support.
"We will take whatever pressures come.
"We will do whatever it takes to ward off such pressures.
"We will find the resources to back your work.
"The nation is united on this issue. There are no ambiguities whatsoever
So, here‘s the good news. If Bush next attacks Iran, nukes probably won't be
used. Unless, of course, Bush uses them.
Which would be bad news since Russia and/or China may well then honor their
NPT commitments to come immediately to Iran 's assistance.
Finally, here's the really bad news. Suppose Bush next attacks Pakistan, hoping
to kill Osama bin Laden and to destroy al-Qaeda. Well, according to the Terrorist
Threat to the US Homeland;
"We assess that al Qaeda will continue to try to acquire and employ
chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear material in attacks and would
not hesitate to use them if it develops what it deems is sufficient capability."