Paul Rogers


Paul Rogers, Global Security Consultant to Oxford Research Group, discusses Israel’s military upgrades that make a solo attack on Iran possible, why military action would prompt Iran to withdraw from the NPT and develop nuclear weapons in earnest, Israel’s strategic alliances with Azerbaijan and the Iraqi Kurds, the little-known permanent U.S. military operational presence in Israel, why the U.S. military (and not Israel) is most at risk to an Iranian counterattack and the lingering hard feelings Iranians have for their “Axis of Evil” inclusion.

MP3 here. (29:01)

Paul Rogers is Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, and Global Security Consultant to Oxford Research Group. Professor Rogers has worked in the field of international security, arms control and political violence for over 30 years. He lectures at universities and defence colleges in several countries and has written or edited 26 books, including Global Security and the War on Terror: Elite Power and the Illusion of Control (Routledge, 2008) and Why We’re Losing the War on Terror (Polity, 2008).

He writes monthly briefings analysing the international security situation for the Oxford Research Group website and since October 2001 has written a series of ORG Briefing Papers on international security and the ‘war on terror’, including Endless War: The Global War on Terror and the New Bush Administration (March 2005) and Iran: Consequences of a War (February 2006). Paul is also a regular commentator on global security issues in both the national and international media, and is openDemocracy’s International Security Editor.

27 thoughts on “Paul Rogers”

  1. Former Trident missile engineer Bob Aldridge on the missiles to be deployed on ships in the Black Sea in Bulgaria and on land in Poland and Romania by 2015: "Whether they are on ships or land, they are still a necessary component for an unanswerable first strike". The late Brigadier Harbottle stated, "They are bloody fools in the Pentagon because they don´t believe in nuclear winter". It seems they still don´t believe in nuclear winter. What other reason for putting the MX warhead on Minuteman-3 ???

  2. I'm afraid the fact that the Israelis may have to bomb Iran again in a few years will not be much of a deterrent to them. First of all their technology advances exponentially due to American military support. Second, they are already doing that in Lebanon and Gaza, bombing and destroying their civilization every few years. This has become their modus operandi (think I spelled that wrong) and a source of great joy for them – to be able to start killing and destroying all over again whenever they need new thrills.

  3. What this guy forgot to mention is that before Israel can take any military action against Iran they have to take care of their major problem right at their border and that's Hezbollah. In order to be able to bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities without having to deal with immediate missile attacks from Lebanon Hezbollah has to be destroyed militarily.

    What Israel is going to do is reduce Lebanon (and possibly parts of Syria as well) to a pile of ashes. Mass destruction will occur in Lebanon on a massive scale because Hezbollah is a guerilla army that's kinds of scattered all over the place, so they can't be defeated from the air. in the 2006 war Israel bombed the hell out of Lebanon and slaughtered 1,400 civilians but the rockets kept hitting Haifa. In fact it was on the last day of the war that Hezbollah fired the most rockets. So in order to defeat Hezbollah they are going to have to try to turn the public against them and the way to do that is to utterly terrorize the civilians by bombing things like sewage facilities, power plants apartment buildings that Hezbollah is forced to stop the war in order to prevent more Lebanese people from dying. And you see, Israel has the pretext to bomb any civilian target in Lebanon because they can just say that Hezbollah was using these areas to store their weapons. So when hospitals, shelters for women and children, relief areas get tons of bombs dropped on them they will just be justified under the pretext that they were storage facilities for weapons. All sorts of different bombs are going to be dropped on just about every part of Lebanon to get rid of Hezbollah and their weapons.

    The next war between Hezbollah and Israel is going to be absolutely devastating and I promise you this. And this war has to happen because without it Israel can't easily go after Iran without facing massive retaliation in the form of rockets from Hezbollah. It's simply too dangerous for Israel to have Hezbollah so close to them. This war will also be a way to put more pressure on Iran to stop their nuclear program.

      1. It's a simple tactic: you say one thing and do another. Speak about the "purity of arms," but slaughter civilians en masse. Call yourself the "most moral army in the world, but use white phosphorous on a population of starving people. All people know is what they hear on TV and we know how one-sided our media is on the Middle East conflict.

  4. Attack on Iran will have the following repurcussions: Hezbollah will throw 30 thousand rockets and missiles on Israel primarily attacking Dimona plant, their capital city, airport and all the greenary will be destroyed. Iran will destroy all the gulf petro-related infrastructure. All the supply of oil will be stopped immediately through Strait of Hormuz.. Iran will complely destroy the western economies. America will be deposed from the status of super power. No oil from the middle east. Most of the modern Israeli weapons have become useless since Iran will not fight plane to plane or tank to tank. They will rely on assymestrical warefare and hundreds of missiles. Boy, I won't advice this attack. The best option is to negotiate and accept Iran as a regional nuclear power.

    1. Ron, if you were talking about rational and sane human beings I might, just might, agree with you but you know as well as anyone that we're dealing with lunatics.

    2. The USA is gearing up for "the complete destruction of Iran" in the words of one English professor. I don't know how capable Iran is going to be of carrying out most of their plans. The attack from the USA may be so massive and destructive that it will preempt most of what the Iranians try to do. You don't just drop bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities and fly away hoping that nothing will happen. You take out their nuclear facilities and then you destroy their military infrastructure to prevent retaliation. And, hell, you may even attack public facilities like food production plants, farms, sanitation facilities, water treatment and sewage facilities to wreak havoc among the population. This is what they did to Iraq and that war lasted two weeks. And this is exactly what would come hand-in-hand with an American attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

      1. a major water treatment plant for Tehran is just two blocks from the Laleh Hotel and Laleh park in densely populated Tehran (population about 13 million) which, by the way, sets on an earthquake fault line.

  5. ~2:45 "…any such attack would be deeply counterproductive…not least because it would be the one thing that would really encourage the Iranians to try to develop nuclear weapons as quickly as they possibly could." That quickly, eh? But that would make it productive from the war-freak perspective: the development could not proceed 'quickly' at all, but the attack may at least produce the activity it purports to prevent. They could even blame it on their attacks and invoke the PBR (pottery barn rule). Then their shortsightedness 'necessitates' the war they wanted in the first place.

  6. you know a much better tactic would be to encourage Netanyahu to bomb himself….. and give everyone some peace

  7. The Nazis supposedly killed?? was it 4OO for every one of them the locals killed.. It didn't werk out oh so well for them, but I guess the Israelis on their tiny speck of stolen land, think that they can do better…

  8. It's a little like matter and anti-matter. The most effective antidote to a Benjamin Netanyahu is a Lazar Kaganovich.

  9. An anti-dote, indeed. An ante-dote can be effective when treating a potent problem.

    "For an anti-dote we shall strive"

    – Benicio Del Toro

    Bon appetit, mes enfants.

  10. "We shall restore the Republic and all of its key components"

    -King Chuck II of England

    Bon appetit, mes enfants.

  11. We need our Republic back and restoring it is a national priority.

    "The Republic is good for it is just"

    -Selenius the Elder

    Bon appetit, mes enfants.

  12. This man seems to play down the Iranian capabilities in defending their country and proudly over estimating destructive power of the little criminal Israel. Obviously a sign that he is promoting a war by Israel. I wouldn’t be surprised if CNN had this guy on their program but on Antiwar!

    1. Bill is no longer welcome here. It's not the 9/11 nonsense – go right ahead epppie – it's the racism and bigotry. And the joy of hitting the delete button on his greatest of efforts.

    2. Not so much a primary site as a key site, because of its key position in the antiwar, antiempire internet, such as it is. It's role in maintaining the perception that 911 Truth is 'unserious' and even insane is critical.

  13. 9 scientists, including Niels Harrit from Uni of Copenhagen, have found traces of nano-thermite on WTC. They conclude that nano-thermite and not the planes took down the towers. It´s a fact that nano-thermite was used. Science is science – or what ?

  14. So the great revelation this solemn representative of the intellectual elite has to offer is the observation that Israel's ability to attack Iran has grown? Wow. Kindof a load of crap, huh, to offer as some important revelation the most obvious fact in the whole world.

    Now take a look at how he takes this obvious manifestation of Obamian war intention against Iran, since Obama has been absolutely loading Israel with weapons, knowing full well what Israel might do with those weapons, and tries to twist it into yet another homage to Obama the Secret Peacemaker. Coopted academics like this guy, and coopted alternapundit 'steno-journalists' like Porter, tell us relentlessly that it's the bad Israelies and their US backers who want a war against Iran and Obama is trying just as hard as he can, like the little dutch boy, to hold back the tidal wave of war by hitting Iran with those heavy sanctions (ie. economic war), which paradoxically (but see, only if you are a 'serious' thinker who truly understands those Orwellian Beltway complexities that turn peace into war) form a dike against war!!!!

    What a genius of peace that Obama is. He's making war to prevent war. Preventative war, in the very best sense, of course.

    What a load of bollocks. Notice how all this Obama as Secret Peacemaker crap went into Overdrive after Obama punched the Turkey-Brazil peace initiative right in the face? It's nothing but propaganda, meant to distract us from what is obviously going on in front of us, from a drive to war, meant to persuade us that a Zebra is a Newspaper.

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