Yugoslavia
is in default on its $14 billion of external debt. Then
there is $1.7 billion owed to the World Bank. If Yugoslavia
wants any more money [from the IMF], it will have to start
paying its creditors off. It will also have to swallow
the standard IMF bitter medicine: Pay cuts, an end to
subsidies, "flexible labor markets, the closure of
"uncompetitive" industries. Thus will Yugoslavia
become impoverished, yet "competitive." And
some day, perhaps, the standard of living will return
to its current level.
There
was always something extraordinarily naïve about the idea
that once Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was out
of power, the West would rush to Belgrade, check book in
one hand, fountain pen in the other. The eight years of
sanctions, not to mention the extensive bombing were not
directed against one man. US Government officials have said
on innumerable occasions that they considered the Serbs
to have been the instigators of the Balkan wars of the past
decade. The Serbs’ real crime, of course, was "nationalism"
– in other words, opposition to the policies of the
US Government. And now they will have to be punished for
it. While very little economic aid is forthcoming, Western
policymakers are not hesitating making one demand after
another on the new Government in Belgrade.
Last
week President Vojislav Kostunica announced that he would
visit Bosnia to attend the reburial of Serb poet Jovan Ducic,
who died 57 years ago in the United States. Wolfgang Petritsch,
the so-called High Representative in Bosnia (a term redolent
of the old position of colonial High Commissioner) announced
that he was disturbed that a President of Yugoslavia should
visit Bosnia. He demanded an explanation. Petritsch met
Kostunica and afterwards professed himself satisfied that
the "visit was of a purely private nature." Nevertheless,
Yugoslavia and Bosnia must establish diplomatic relations
as soon as possible, he insisted. As far as financial aid
was concerned, Petritsch announced that Yugoslavia would
receive about $ 180 million. However, this money is Yugoslavia’s
already. It is to be realized through the distribution of
the country’s gold reserves with the Bank for International
Settlements in Basle.
As
far as more money is concerned, Kostunica will have to wait.
In a recent article in the Financial Times, Petritsch
wrote: "Hundreds of millions of euros in aid should
not be allowed to flood into Yugoslavia without some strings
attached." Kostunica would first have to recognize
Bosnia and "establish diplomatic relations." Petritsch
then went on to issue a threat: "I… suggest to
Mr. Kostunica that the surest way of securing Kosovo, where
Serbs have just as much right to live as ethnic Albanians,
is to recognize Bosnian sovereignty. Then the international
community will be honor bound to ensure a future for Serbs
there as was agreed under UN Security Council Resolution
1244." This is essentially blackmail. The so-called
"international community" will adhere to international
law provided Serbs meet its requirements. Of course, the
requirements can change at any time. In which case, treaties
and UN Resolutions will be ignored. Petritsch concluded
his article with the inevitable demand: "If Yugoslavia
wants to regain full membership of the UN, it should be
willing to work with its institutions. That includes the
war crimes tribunal in The Hague."
The
other day Petritsch met his "friend" Zoran Djindjic.
According to the joint statement issued after their meeting,
"the state bodies of the FRY should support the democratic
process in Bosnia-Herzegovina and refrain from supporting
any political party." This was an odd declaration,
to say the least. Leading Democratic Opposition figures
have been actively involved in the upcoming election campaign
in Bosnia. The approved Presidential candidate of the Western
powers, Milorad Dodik, is in some trouble. He is only President
because the previous High Representative, Carlos Westendorp,
had dismissed the elected President, Nikola Poplasen, for
failing to conform to the requirements of the "international
community." Dodik is obviously badly in need of a boost,
so Western officials are shipping in Kostunica supporters
in the hope that some of their glory will rub off on him.
Attending a recent election rally in Bijeljina in northeastern
Bosnia was Belgrade Mayor Milan Protic. He said that the
Serb Republic of Bosnia had supported and helped the DOS,
and "that was why DOS members had come to the …
rally to share their joy with the citizens of the Serb Republic,
as the democratic victory in Serbia was a victory for the
whole Serb people." Also in attendance was Vladan Batic,
leader of the Christian Democratic Party. He was for Dodik,
he explained, because Dodik "had always supported the
DOS." Vuk Obradovic, leader of the Social Democrats,
was also there. He supported Dodik because he "had
supported all the major battles of DOS against Slobodan
Milosevic and helped democracy win in Serbia." Also
in attendance was the ubiquitous Velimir Ilic, Mayor of
Cacak.
Milorad
Dodik himself is under no illusions as to how seriously
Western powers take elections. An election victory by the
dread Serb Democratic Party (SDS) in the upcoming elections,
he recently stated (perfectly correctly), would lead to
an end to international aid and the isolation of the Serb
Republic: "If the SDS won the election, international
aid would be halted, the Serb Republic would become isolated
and all the standby arrangements with the IMF and World
Bank would cease."
Perhaps
the Bosnian Serbs would not be losing all that much.
Kostunica,
having dismissed the Hague Tribunal as a political body
driven by an anti-Serb agenda, now finds – to his surprise
apparently – that the Western powers are not about
to jettison their prize creation. In recent days, Kostunica’s
supporters have been suggesting that Slobodan Milosevic
would be put on trial in Belgrade, not at The Hague. Not
for "war crimes" to be sure, but for "corruption"
and "vote rigging." They are putting out chilling
tales of Milosevic embezzling funds, rigging elections and
transferring millions of dollars into foreign bank accounts.
"There is a lot of evidence which should lead to Milosevic’s
arrest," says Mayor of Cacak, Velimir Ilic. Quite how
a Mayor of Cacak can possibly know that "there is a
lot of evidence" – and this a mere two weeks after
the overthrow of Milosevic – is a bit of a mystery.
Mladjan Dinkic of the economic think-tank G17 today heads
the National Bank He claims the level of embezzlement and
corruption during the Milosevic era was "huge."
It need hardly be pointed out that lurid tales of "corruption"
and "embezzlement" in the previous era are a very
useful way of distracting the public’s attention from
the economic failures of the current era.
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