The fall of Hosni Mubarak isn’t just an occasion to cheer the demise of a dictatorship, it’s also a golden opportunity to celebrate the downfall of all-too-many “experts” whose complacency, deference to power, and complete ignorance of the situation on the ground led them to predict the dictator would survive. Below, a list of the fallen:
“Experts predict that Mubarak will survive the crisis” — that was the headline at USA Today on Jan. 28. The article quotes only one of these alleged “experts”: ”
“Jon Alterman, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the regime of Tunisian autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali quickly crumbled after his military withdrew its support. In Egypt, the security services are solidly behind the Mubarak government, he said.
“‘If I were a betting man, what I’d bet on is that the government gets through the current crisis,’ Alterman said.”
Here‘s another “expert,” cited in Le Figaro:
“Opposition to Hosni Mubarak has always existed, explains Jean-Noel Ferrie of France’s national scientific research center (CNRS). And though the criticism and public demonstrations have reached a new level, Ferrie cautions against quick comparisons to what happened in Tunisia. ‘It would be wrong to compare his unpopularity with Ben Ali’s.’ Mubarak came to power after the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981. With his military background, and stature as a hero during the 1973 war, he won the army’s support, which has been a key element in the regime’s survival, right up to the present moment. ‘It is unlikely that protesters can oust him without facing the military first,’ says Ferrie.
 Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — “Our assessment is that the Egyptian government is stable and is looking for ways to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people.”
The Israelis –Â “The Egyptian demonstrations, now in their third day, have been inspired by those who overthrew Tunisian dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali this month, but the official said Israel saw limited parallels between the countries. ‘Mubarak is not Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. There is a huge difference. The Egyptian regime is well rooted, including the defence establishment. Their regime is strong enough to overcome the situation,’ he said.
“A second government Israeli official echoed that view. ‘The regime may be shaken by the troubles, and anything is possible, but it doesn’t have a serious air to it,’ he said …”
Daniel Larison, over at The American Conservative — “The disagreement centers on the expectation of Mubarak’s fall. For what it’s worth, I don’t think this is likely at all, which makes this one of the few times that I agree with the Netanyahu government about something.”
Larsison wasn’t just wrong, he was willfully and stubbornly wrong, conducting a weeks-long campaign against Egypt’s democracy movement. Echoing the neocons and the Israel lobby, he cited fears of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover and the demise of Egypt as a reliable ally. Mubarak’s overthrow, Larison claims, would not be in “American interests.”
