Month: February 2011

Poor Glenn Reynolds, he’s trying mightily to recreate the days when his opinion meant something, but that was long ago and far away and the old war-blogger doesn’t have the good sense to fade away: he’s still in there pitching pernicious memes:

“MUBARAK has resigned.

“UPDATE: Interestingly, the Shah of Iran was also forced out on February 11. Let’s hope this isn’t an omen.

“ANOTHER UPDATE: Military coup. On Facebook, lawprof Eric Muller comments: ‘It’s interesting, and to this American pair of eyes a bit odd, to see a nation cheering deliriously at the prospect of military control of the government.'”

To debunk this “Feb. 11” meme, all you have to do is follow the link, so helpfully provided by Reynolds, to the Wikipedia entry for the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which tell us “On January 16, 1979 the Shah and the empress left Iran. Scenes of spontaneous joy followed and ‘within hours almost every sign of the Pahlavi dynasty’ was destroyed.” Unlike Egypt, in Iran a significant portion of the military continued to fight the rebels, and weren’t defeated until sometime after February 11 — the day the Iranian regime, which is as fact-averse as Reynolds, commemorates the Shah’s overthrow. The truth, though, is that the Shah left a month earlier — so the analogy with Iran fails even on the most superficial level.

Oh well, facts don’t matter to the War Party, as we have seen, since they deal in fantasy narratives rather than something so prosaic as the truth.

Of course, Reynolds did not originate the 1979-is-2011 meme: he never originates anything. His job is to act as a transmission belt for the neocons’ propaganda mill, sloganizing the more complex narratives cooked up by his betters. In the past, he’s done a serviceable job, but this clumsy effort just underscores his utter irrelevance.

As for it being “odd” that the Egyptian people are cheering the military, that’s the lap-top bombardier syndrome kicking in again: you’ll recall back in the glory days of the Reynolds-war blogger set, there were all these belligerent geeks acting out their macho fantasies from quite a considerable distance away from the actual fighting. Today, these same geeks, a little long in the tooth, are snarking from the sidelines as the Democratic Revolution they supposedly wanted all along in the Arab world comes to pass. 

Egyyptians’ enthusiasm for the military coming in is understandable if you analogize the situation thusly: imagine you are being mugged, and you’re down in the gutter being beaten by some thug, yet you somehow manage to dial 911 on your cell phone: the cops show up and save the day. This is called The Rule of Law. Being a lawyer, perhaps Senor Muller will recognize the analogy. Reynolds, too, is supposed to be some kind of lawyer, but actually he’s merely a law professor, so perhaps he might be excused for siding with the muggers over the mugged.

To predict a dictator’s downfall in the evening, and to wake up to his resignation is to live in a pundit’s paradise, and that’s precisely where I am today. As I said in this morning’s column:

“Mubarak, as I said a while back, is finished. His Norma Desmond moment has come and gone – and it looks like he wasn’t all that ready for his close up. The question now is what – or who – comes after: and now is precisely the moment when we can expect the US effort to influence events to go into overdrive. Whatever the Egyptian military command decides, you can bet it isn’t without input from the Pentagon, which is even now communicating with their Egyptian counterparts. They are no doubt pushing the US line, which is, as the State Department has made all too clear, that we’re sticking with our man Suleiman. This is unacceptable to the crowds in the street, however, and we’ll see how long it is before Washington throws him overboard, too, just like they did Mubarak.”

Shorter version: One down, one to go….

Youthful libertarians at the CPAC conference, now going on in Washington, ambush Dick Cheney — who’s getting a “Defender of the Constiution” award! — calling him a “war criminal” as the neocons chant “USA USA!!” in their usual “four-legs-good-two-legs-bad” style.

This is no ordinary heckling — because it’s happening inside the conservative tent, where Cheney is supposed to feel comfortable. To hear oneself denounced as a war criminal in that context has got to be unnerving.

Hosni Mubarak is scheduled to speak to the Egyptian people in the next ten minutes, and speculation is rife that he’s going to be announcing his effective resignation. This promises to be a Nixonian moment – remember “You won’t have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore“?  — but we’ll see …

Minutes before the address: the Egyptian “Minister of Information” is saying Mubby will not step down.

Stay tuned ….

Egyptian state television is now showing the Tahrir Square protests as they’ve never shown them before: wide-angle and up close. Also, we have real debates about corruption and other issues raised by the protesters has occurred in the last 24 hours. So we have a sea-change on state tv — perhaps a prelude to Mubby’s abdication. Also we have the “National Democratic Party,” Mubby’s party, saying Mubby has to go (!).

Stay tuned ….

Mubby is fashionably late to his own anticipated resignation speech. Rumors fly: He’s just going to announce the lifting of “emergency law.”

I’m still staying tuned, but this is getting … tiresome.  Oh wait: looks like Al Arabiya has some news. According to them, Mubby is transferring his powers to the “Vice President,” Omar Suleiman, he will amend the Constitution, and — in an appeal to his nationalistic audience — he is not taking orders “from outside.”

Still waiting for Mubby’s Norma Desmond moment: “I”m ready for my close up, Mr. DeMille!”

Stay tuned…

Okay, he’s speaking:

My fellow countrymen. I am talking to you, the youth of Tahrir Square. A speeh from a father to his children. I take pride in you calling for a change for the betteer. I tell you before anything all those who fell their blood will not go down the drain. I will hold accountable those who attacked our youth. I address the families of those innocent victims —  I felt their pain. My resposne to your voice and your demands is a commitment that cannot be waived. I am determimned to fulfill all the promises. I am totally keen (!) on this. It is important to admit mistakes and rectify them . I cannot find any embarrassment at all in listening to the youth and learning from you, but I cannot and will not be dfictated [to] from outside. I announced in very plain words that will not run for president again. For over 60 years I served and Iwill continue to serve my contry. There will be elections in september. I have laid down a vision to exit the current crisis and to realize the demands of the youth without undermining the constitution. Laying down a framework for a peaceful transition to power. I laid down a framework for taking the country from this crisis. I am looking forward to your support [good luck with that one, Mubby!]. We have had a constructive national dialogue. This dialogue has yeielded a preliminary agreement.  Therefore we have laid our foot on the right path. This will go day by day, until next september.

 blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Two committees will be formed of independent impartial egyptians. Once stability and security is restored, emergency law will be cancelled. restore confidence among all egyptians. We cannot tolerate for these circumstances to continue. It will end with a situation where the youth will be the first victims. it is not relating to me, it is now relating to egypt, we are all in the same trench. we need a friendly atmosphere [yeah, right!]. we need to restore confidence and peace to our economy and streets. I have been a youth just like you. I exhausted my life defending the homeland. I lived thru the days of occupation.

blah blah patriotic drivel.

 I was a pilot. I never relented under foreign pressures. I never sought false power or popularity [you can say that again!]. I feel pain in my heart from what I hear from some of my countrymen [poor Mubby! Nobody loves him!], we must put th ehomeland first. I am delegating power to the vice president according to the constitution. We will not allow others to gloat over us. We are not a satellite state. we don’t take orders from others. We will prove all this.

blah blah blah blah. committees will meet. blah blah

Egypt is eternal. I have lived for this nation, safeguard my responsiblity, egypt will live on above all persons, I will not leave this country until I am dead and buried in its soil. May god save Egypt.

My favorite line: “I feel your pain.”

Most significant line: “I will not leave this country until I am dead and buried in its soil.” That, I’m sure, can be easily arranged …

Most ominous line: “It will end with a situation where the youth will be the first victims.”

The crowd in Tahrir Square — and similar crowds in Alexandria, Suez, and elsewhere — is furious. Get ready for a major explosion….

from CPAC today….

from LobeLog: News and Views Relevant to U.S.-Iran relations for February 10th, 2011:

The Washington Post: Former Israeli ambassador Sallai Meridor opines on “What Israel fears in Egypt.” He observes, “Within every revolution are some who hope to use democratic processes to establish oppressive regimes. This was, to a large extent, what triumphed in Iran in 1979 and what happened in Gaza only five years ago.” He notes, “The implications for the region could be massive,” and asks, “If Israel’s western neighbor turns hostile, where would that leave our eastern neighbor, Jordan? Would it remain at peace with us? What would be the impact on other pro-American regimes? How many weeks, or days, would the new alignment of interests between Israel and most Arab regimes last against an aggressive and nuclear-armed Iran?” Meridor goes on to suggest that American pressure on Israel to allow Palestinians democratic rights led to a “’democratic’ take over of the Palestinian Authority by Hamas terrorists.”

The Jerusalem Post: Panelists at the Israeli Herzliya Conference discussed what strategies could be employed to pressure Iran to give up its nuclear program. Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, called for the West to help provide technology and media outlets for Iranians to “connect with each other.” “The Iranian public needs to know they are being cared for beyond the nuclear arena,” he said. Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, called for tighter sanctions and said Israel must not do any business with Iran: “[Israel] needs to be more Catholic than the pope,” he said.