Last week I wrote about some recent polling which suggests the American public, contrary to the collective narrative we hear about, is relatively supportive of military action against Iran in order to prevent it attaining nuclear weapons. Daniel Larison thinks that support is much weaker than it seems, given the wording of the questionnaire:
First, the wording suggests that military action can prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but that is misleading. It is much more likely that military action will do nothing more than delay Iran’s nuclear program and make it even more likely that Iran will decide to build nuclear weapons (which it has not done yet). The alternative being offered is avoiding war even if it means that Iran develops nuclear weapons, but it is not necessarily the case that Iran will build nuclear weapons in the future. Because the wording exaggerates the efficacy of military action and also inflates the risks associated with avoiding war, the result is bound to be skewed in a more pro-war direction.
Yes, the wording seems to make certain fundamental assumptions which may be misleading to the interviewee. Unfortunately, that is sort of the point. I’ve written endlessly about how military action against Iran is unlikely to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons and may even propel it toward that end quicker than otherwise. I’ve written even more about how, in fact, Iran is not developing nuclear weapons and has not demonstrated any intention of doing so, according to the U.S. military and intelligence community. I’ve also made the point that Iran is on the defense instead of the offense, contrary to the frightening way supposed Iranian aggression is commonly portrayed in the media and by Washington. All these things are important if we’re going to answer questions about how much or how little we support a war on Iran. The trouble is, Americans don’t seem to care about that. The misleading presumptions the questions seem to make are exactly the kind the public will be exposed to if war with Iran becomes imminent. And if history is any guide, they’ll buy into those presumptions, skewing, as Larison says, the results in a more pro-war direction.
In fact, one of the points I made in my previous post on this was the one that Trevor Thrall at The National Interest made, noting that “support for military action against Iran today is almost exactly the same as support for the invasion of Iraq right before the war began.” And that was after one of the most coordinated and aggressive propaganda efforts in American history. There is all sorts of pro-war propaganda on Iran happening right now, some of which certainly contributes to the pro-war slant of public opinion polls. But remember, this is while the administration is decidedly against war with Iran (preferring instead to cripple the Iranian economy and support proxy terrorism against Iranian civilians). Think of the onslaught of propaganda we’d see if the administration changed its mind. Think of how skewed public support for war would be then.
Unfortunately, I have a hard time believing Americans are suffering from Vietnam syndrome even after the disasters of the last decade. Although I do buy into Larison’s second point about Americans being much less supportive of taking sides in an Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Update: From Michael Calderone, a case in point: “…public misinformation about Iran’s nuclear project remains exceedingly high: in a 2010 poll, 7 in 10 Americans said they believe Iran already has the weapons. (In the Iraq War’s early days, 81 percent of Americans said they believed the country likely possessed WMD’s, an understandable conclusion given Bush administration statements and the media’s coverage).”
I really loved reading your blog. It was very well authored and easy to understand. Unlike other blogs I have read which are really not that good.Thanks alot! IVC Filter perforation
I really loved reading your blog. It was very well authored and easy to understand. Unlike other blogs I have read which are really not that good.Thanks alot! IVC Filter perforation
I really loved reading your blog. It was very well authored and easy to understand. Unlike other blogs I have read which are really not that good.Thanks alot! IVC Filter perforation
exciting information and while reading I have feel that this blog is really have all those quality that qualify a blog to be a one.I wanted to leave a little com
ed miracle shake
I'll be sure to come back. thanks for sharing. and also This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. this is very nice one and gives in depth information. thanks for this nice article. http://www.tarotpsychicmedium.com/
I'll be sure to come back. thanks for sharing. and also This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. this is very nice one and gives in depth information. thanks for this nice article. http://www.tarotpsychicmedium.com/
I'll be sure to come back. thanks for sharing. and also This article gives the light in which we can observe the reality. this is very nice one and gives in depth information. thanks for this nice article. http://www.tarotpsychicmedium.com/
I have feel that this blog is really have all those quality that qualify a blog to be a one.I wanted to leave a little comment to support you and wish you a good continuation.
the walking dead no mans land hack
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. lawyers in
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. lawyers in
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. lawyers in
I have just cloned the git repo, and tried using it, it returnsears ringing treatment
blank page and FF fire bug reports exception ‘a.replace is not a function
interesting things from this site. It helps me in many ways.Thanks for posting this again .movers and packers in pune
I guess that they having fun to read this post,they shall take a good site to make a information,thanks for sharing it to me….click
Thanks for the nice blog. It was very useful for me. I m happy I found this blog. Thank you for sharing with us,I too always learn something new from your post. dental implants
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles. Keep up the good work. ajmer sightseeing
Voorts is het in de praktijk zeer aan te bevelen om een adequaat en actueel ziekteverzuimreglement te hebben. Indien bij werknemers bekend is aan welke regels zij in geval van ziekte moeten voldoen, maakt dat handhaven van de voorschriften aanzienlijk eenvoudiger.find the best sunglass
enjoying reading your well written articles. It looks like you spend a lot of effort and time on your blog. I have bookmarked it and I am looking forward to reading new articles
your financial advisor
This in not call SEO this is what you are trying to manipulate Google algorithm I would suggest you to remove the idea from your mind about to different theme
your mobile phone advisor
gives the light in which we can observe the reality. this is very nice one and gives in depth information. thanks for this nice article
selling stuff on amazon
You will find a lot of approaches after visiting your post. I was exactly searching for. Thanks for such post and please keep it up. Great work http://proteccozumel.com
You will find a lot of approaches after visiting your post. I was exactly searching for. Thanks for such post and please keep it up. Great work http://proteccozumel.com
gives the light in which we can observe the reality. this is very nice one and gives in depth information. thanks for this nice artic
source
It proved to be very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained! ice age village hack
If possible, such as gain knowledge, would you mind updating your blog with additional information
vVictorino Noval