Abandon Hegemony in Asia-Pacific, Or Risk Catastrophic War

US Navy fleet in Asia-Pacific
US Navy fleet in Asia-Pacific

Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, writes at The Diplomat that the crux of the tensions between the U.S. and China is a contest for power in the Asia-Pacific region. The squabbling over competing sovereignty claims of this or that island chain in the East and South China Seas, he writes, is peripheral to the real battle for regional hegemony.

A Chinese sphere of influence here would require the eviction of American strategic leadership, including U.S. military bases and alliances in Japan and South Korea, U.S. “regional policeman” duties, and most of the security cooperation between America and friends in the region that now occurs. Washington is not ready to give up this role, seeing a strong presence in the western Pacific rim and the ability to shape regional affairs as crucial to American security.

A basic problem, then, is that Beijing wants a sphere of influence, while Washington is not willing to accede it.

I’m reminded of the stark choice put forth in Noam Chomsky’s 2003 book Hegemony or Survival. Relying on official documents, Chomsky warned that it is dangerous that “the declared intention of the most powerful state in history [is] to maintain its hegemony through the threat or use of military force, the dimension of power in which it reigns supreme.”

In the official rhetoric of the National Security Strategy, “Our forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries from pursuing a military build-up in hopes of surpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States.

One well-known international affairs specialist, John Ikenberry, describes the declaration as a “grand strategy [that] begins with a fundamental commitment to maintaining a unipolar world in which the United States has no peer competitor,” a condition that is to be “permanent [so] that no state or coalition could ever challenge [the U.S.] as global leader, protector, and enforcer.”

Ikenberry went on to say this quest for permanent hegemony threatens to “leave the world more dangerous and divided – and the United States less secure.” America’s current defense posture in Asia – to back all of China’s neighboring rivals in an attempt to curb China’s regional ambitions – is at once an attempt to implement this hegemonic grand strategy and a threat to peace.

“My biggest fear is that a small mishap is going to blow up into something much bigger,” says Elizabeth C. Economy of the Council on Foreign Relations. “If there is a use of force between Japan and China,” warns her colleague Sheila A. Smith, “this could be all-out conflict between these two Asian giants. And as a treaty ally of Japan, it will automatically involve the United States.”

As I’ve written, maintaining global hegemony does ordinary Americans little good. Such an exclusive hold on power in the sphere of international relations is greatly beneficial to political elites and the wealthy entities to which they are closely tied, but not much for the general population. Given this, the question of whether we prefer maintaining hegemony to “all-out conflict” in the Asia-Pacific is pertinent. We can either continue to risk catastrophic conflict between two of the world’s most powerful states, or, as Roy puts it, “accede” to China’s regional ambitions which, after all, mirror America’s own regional ambitions when it was a rising power.

73 thoughts on “Abandon Hegemony in Asia-Pacific, Or Risk Catastrophic War”

  1. Bring it on China, we all knew this was going to happen one day. All there is to do now is wait and watch the world crumble in despair.

    1. The US could destroy China's economy and obtain full employment in the US by refusing to pay back the money Congress borrowed from the Chinese and enacting punitive tariffs against goods and campaign contributions imported from there. Our first export to China should be the members of the political elite that China bought-off to establish the Bush-Clinton-Bush globalized military-industrial complex that the US can no longer afford.

      1. I can't even begin to fathom the state of mind that can give rise to this outpour of confusion and national-socialistic rah-rahism.

      2. what you may not realize is that (y)our government depends on borrowing. If the U.S. were to pursue that option, China and every other nation that buys T-Bills would stop immediately.

        And what happens when you can no longer buy 90% of the goods that your used to in Walmart? And what is left quadruples or more in price?

        And our debt-bound economy would grind to a halt. 100s of millions would die (here, before any war started), and you would get a good look at the police state up-close and personal.

        Which is why the best brains are getting out. The rumbling of the volcano has been loud and clear for years.

        Although exporting all of those pols would definitely be a great idea.

          1. Thanks for the link, denk. The article really points out the insanity of our leaders and of US policy in general. No wonder the USA, blinded by obsolete WWII hubris, is in terminal decline.

  2. We must be vigilant against the fast approaching ground 'war' against ~ 20% of the world's population…Iraq was a mere 23 mil or so…same as Afghanistan… similar to Syria…but yeah…China…it's the biggie….

    How big was Vietnam?

    Nukes and all…

    Good 'thinking' Glaser….and keep up the good work…

  3. "maintaining global hegemony does ordinary Americans little good." But it costs us, and future generations, plenty in terms of tax dollars and lives lost. In contrast, the wealthy and powerful find ways to reduce the tax bite to near zero and avoid military service, but benefit immensely from the global hegemony.

    "the question of whether we prefer maintaining hegemony to “all-out conflict” in the Asia-Pacific" is very pertinent, but it's not a question that will ever be put to US citizens. The wealthy and powerful have already made that choice. They want conflict.

  4. +1 to this post.

    Hegemony or Survival should be a standard text in grade-school. So much key information in that.

    Another one should be "The Crimes of Empire", by Carl Boggs.

    This book puts all the USA's actions in historical context and shows they are part of an expanding pattern, and nothing new.

    The USA kept expanding into the territories it promised the Native Americans could keep – as soon as resources such as oil, gas, minerals, etc., were discovered on those lands. Then the USA would say they had to break their solemn treaties and take that land for "national security".

    Low.

    And nothing has changed, except now we have the internet and no one should be fooled. We need to stop this.

  5. Great op-ed, Mr. Glaser!
    Indeed the basic doctrine of US foreign policy about power projection and dominance is nothing but aggression in itself – yet a Nation that believes of it's own indisputable 'greatness' and 'exceptionalism' will be too blind to acknowledge – exactly as Chomsky tries to point out for years and decades now.

    “If there is a use of force between Japan and China,” warns her colleague Sheila A. Smith, “this could be all-out conflict between these two Asian giants. And as a treaty ally of Japan, it will automatically involve the United States.”

    Where does Mrs Smith see an 'asian giant' in Japan concerning 'all-out conflict' – doesn't she know that Japan completely lacks military power to rival China in any way? It is America's call, Japan isn't Israel and so it can only commit to what the USA tolerates/mandates (maybe someone go tell that 'foreign relations expert' Smith)

    On another note – the bankrupt US of A is China's biggest customer (on credit) – China owns also lots of US property as well as US reserve assets while also China pretty exclusively sits on rare metals (rare earths) desperately needed by the new economy – China also knows about the deadlock the Federal Reserve moved itself into with it's QE/Zero interest rates policy undermining trust in US financial stability and the 'world reserve currency' and therefor needs time to relocate assets….China actually has the higher-ground, all it needs to do is watch how America bankrupts/destroys herself not only economically but morally especially, even Europe and Asia without Russia/China has lost patience with the USA after 8 years of the most stupid President any civilized Nation ever had and 5 years of that hopey-changey version of Bush who is worse even in many aspects when it comes to surveillance, secret wars, debt-spending and the Orwellianisation of terms that once had a beautiful sound, like 'Hope'…..or 'Transparency'….or 'Nobel Peace Price'…..

  7. Let us not forget (for those who had chance to read the article :KATJUSHA CONCERT) the last words of Adolph before he committed suicide in the Berlin bunker in May 1045:

    " This is the End, we will all die. We must concede defeat. We will not rule the world, we leave this duty to …(paused of 10 or so seconds) …THE GREAT NATIONS OF THE FAR EAST THAT ARE ABOUT TO RISE…"

    Let us also not forget that Russia with its Formidable Weapons is on China's side, so the quest for hegemony will end all of us . Do the "leader of the world" want this?????????????????????????

    1. > Russia with its Formidable Weapons is on China's side

      Er … what?

      These two are in competition. A reminder of the Cold War fantasms is that they form some kind of hegemonistic block because "Communism". Well, no.

  8. i just love an underdog, now that anceint & empire are all so of a SUDDEN, “brand” knew (TM) so it seems the odds on fav to be big alpha boss daddy, with none of the public trust & all the class caste like waste, possibly forever lost, or found, permaneintly, from now on, whats a consumer to do, buy sell or trade 1, get the 2nd (SPOUNTANOUSLY CREATED) FREE, COUNTERFIETED, except they’ll never match, u know, irregular, misfits, ships at & in, the nite, passing the pirites lite, “unamused”, sure i’ll put a bet on “thee/an-y” underdog, if i wagered just for fun, underdog to win ? 2 show just exzactly how freedom is real & occurred, in perpetua, a fabracation of fraudulent benefactor concern acclaimed, alike as flame, kindreid of sorts same as much unity tallys undeniably to power threshing when held, independance & liberty, now thares a symbiotic pairing, like say volts & watts, hmm o!o, hedgamon & underdog, place yer bets, even b thare odds uniquely equal in this 1 lil subtle nuaunce, fair be the fyre to our lil giants, empire (mission active) & imperial (notion elusive)

  9. The US hegemon sewed the seeds of its inevitable downfall due to post WWII hubris when it signed treaties worldwide aimed at ensuring that the rest of the world would bow down to its master.. The US foolishly pursued the greatest empire ever known because it was the only major power that survived virtually unscathed. Our ally the Soviet Union, completely devastated, extended an olive branch after WWII and the US stupidly bit it off. The US started the Cold War, not the Russians. The MI complex has reigned supreme ever since but it's obvious to all not blinded by ideology that its days are numbered. The WWII generation the greatest ever – don't make me laugh!

  10. Thios is an otorious game but people in this region will no more support America due to their past.

  11. empire, imperially driven, kinda like ole Rome being not only rotted & corrupt since oh about the time Marcus Aurrelus noted alturistic idealogy exerted efforts mostly in a dream state, almost forever it took the moon,to travel 2000+ years to get right about where it was gonna be anyway, all those centareans, 200 _ guess at least it must took to stand on infernal watch, realised, looking back with 20/20 moonstruck foresite, Lennon was more on target singing, the eagle picks my flesh, the worm licks my bones, if I ain’t dead allready, & U know what its worth, of the universe, well anyway, NEXT!, the apex of its ascent surely climaxes just as soon as playing ball with the underworld’s synthesised manufactures of eliteist class coward anti securities, chemicals, artificially superseeded of a plasticidical petroleum based textile military hydro carbon art of superficial propaganda in distorted parallax, previously of country or name, legend, myth, historically redacted, well, do they just grow old or actually evilly implode, by souls home of no generation or republics similair cellular integrity, just a tantrum like exspected from a child not a living dead kronie flapping hard with only nebulousity for the touching down to rest & land upon, ying yang, major, minor, does the banner flutter how banners kite, if truths sneak a lie involves just how, technologies perverted body politic, dis embodied yet an entity incarnate for sure, power to control just exzactly what pollutions are in the recipes’ fix, so 2 it takes to void the bankrupt abyss, we’ll need a volunteer, west Tibet or the franken states palace of styeinn, so important we selfishly decree when actually dated by fate such galactic & nebulous such astral cosmic destinies be, marco polo & davy crockett both at least half a hemisphere short for exzamp, 360 a forth & a quarter to 90 transcects nothing this side of zilch and fully whole, the globe, a moon surely, the Imperial Empire of the last Underworld, doomed to ascend & fated to learn of its demise whenever why is the question asked, quality of life, standard of living, life exspectancy, outer space, inner air, peace & quiet, domestic tranquility, class mobility materialistic attainment, hellth & well/fare, charity, higher purpose, intellageince, power, mutated & freaked evolutionary waypoints along empires imperially cured & haunted roads to despise, all the claim of the reason how & why, really now thee don’t say, now use it in a sentence while checking bombastic exscuses to repeat with trust the actual logic its path arrives at meaning, Roman, Oreintal no difference eagle vulture or reptile amphibean, same same whichever pyre ya preffer tyrannically, looks more like a “ARRAINGED PARTNERSHIP” with all the best tools kept in the DARK, o!o, over & out

  12. "maintaining global hegemony dopes ordinary Americans little good"…

    I would say it does them NO good at all and inflicts huge costs upon them. All that money could be spent on roads, schools, hospitals,etc.

  13. The purpose of all the treaties is not to ensure peace, it's to ensure "legitimacy" for intervention in any conflict that can be contrived anywhere on the planet.

    1. exactly.

      the diaoyu dispute had been dormant since the 70's , china n japan has been moving towards reconciliation.

      murikka instigated japan to break that truce n rekindled the dispute in 2010 with the arrest of the chinese fishing boat captain, followed by a series of escalating provocations.
      if war break out uncle sham would invoke the us japan *defence* pact to join in the fray. this is the cunning one's way to get at china since the chinese would never pick fight with the evil empire .

      contrary to the current meme, uncle sham isnt *dragged* into these conflicts, it's the mastermind who is leading from afar.

  16. Big bad aircraft carriers look impressive in photos designed to have us in shock and awe of the Evil Empire's alleged invincibility. In reality they are as obsolete as the battleships at Pearl Harbor were and the Chinese, Russians and Iranians know it. Apparently the admirals at the Pentagon won't get the memo until their beloved carriers are scrap iron at the bottom of the Persian Gulf or East China Sea, courtesy of the Sunburn and Yahkont missiles.

  17. Seems like I heard this story before. Nothing is new under the sun. Here, at ground level, everything is pretty much the same generation after generation in regards to war and crime.

    rudymartinka.wordpress.com

  18. It had better to turn US-China relationship into economical relationship. US hegemony in military should be compromised in order to create a better world situation.

  19. *Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, writes at The Diplomat that the crux of the tensions between the U.S. and China is a contest for power in the Asia-Pacific region*

    btw the diplomat is an intel outfit choked full of anti china *experts*.
    then the litmus test…it censored all my posts !

    1. Dear denk,

      You wrote:

      btw the diplomat is an intel outfit choked full of anti china *experts*.

      Very true. I've been scanning their articles periodically. It's no different that the Cold War era version of Pravda or the Peoples Daily.

      Ironically, today Pravda and the Peoples Daily probably contain less untruth than The Diplomat or other establishment media entities.

  20. Pingback: Is a US-China War More Likely Than a US-Soviet War Was? « Antiwar.com Blog
  21. Pingback: Is a US-China War More Likely Than a US-Soviet War Was? | Michigan Standard

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