In the past couple of weeks, nearly every one of my peers in the community of analysts – Russia watchers has weighed in on Russia’s possible plans to invade Ukraine. We have been given detailed breakdowns of the forces and equipment which Russia has moved into the border region with Ukraine, and we have heard every imaginable scenario for the use of these forces when the weather turns colder, as in February, for example.
Others of my peers have reckoned in great detail the political and economic price which Russia would be compelled to pay if it were reckless enough to invade and seek to neuter Ukraine in one way or another. For example, one analyst has described Russia’s possibly dividing Ukraine in two at the Dnieper River and forming a Russia-friendly state to the east of that divide, while allowing the rump state of rabid Ukrainian nationalists to go to hell on its own.
For its part, the Kremlin has vehemently denied having any designs on Ukraine and claims that Washington is behind this fake news which is intended to encourage the Zelensky government to do something quite stupid such as stage an all-out attack on the Donbas, using the latest weapons which it has received from Washington and its allies, in the mistaken belief that it will be backed up by Washington if things go awry. In short, this would be a replay of the scenario in Georgia in 2008 when the very same Biden who is now US President was feeding false hopes of support to the then Georgian President Saakashvili.
In my own unpublished ruminations about what is or is not going on at the Russian-Ukrainian border and what it means for peace or war in the coming months, I directed my attention to the issue of ‘red lines’ that Vladimir Vladimirovich has called out in various forums over recent weeks. Both in what he said and in remarks by unofficial spokesmen for the Kremlin like television news director Dmitry Kiselyev, I assumed that the Russian buildup of forces at the border was meant as a signal to the United States to desist from its stationing weapons and troops on Ukrainian territory in an attempt to achieve by stealth what it could not achieve by formally bringing Ukraine into NATO: to use the territory as an advance platform against Russia within the overall policy of “containment.”
Now, in the latest remarks to come from the Kremlin, it would appear that we all, my peers among Western commentators and I, have been wrong-footed. Putin has now said as clearly as conceivable within the traditional language of international diplomacy that if the USA puts offensive missile systems onto Ukrainian soil, thereby cutting the warning time of attack on Moscow to 5-7 minutes, then the Russians will station their hypersonic attack missiles on surface and submarine vessels within 5-7 minutes striking distance of Washington, D.C.
In short, what we potentially now have before us is the Cuban Missile Crisis Redux. Only this time the gamblers with the fate of the world are playing with the cards face up.
Gilbert Doctorow is a Brussels-based political analyst. His latest book is Does Russia Have a Future? Reprinted with permission from his blog.
© Gilbert Doctorow, 2021
“Putin has now said as clearly as conceivable within the traditional
language of international diplomacy that if the USA puts offensive
missile systems onto Ukrainian soil, thereby cutting the warning time of
attack on Moscow to 5-7 minutes, then the Russians will station their
hypersonic attack missiles on surface and submarine vessels within 5-7
minutes striking distance of Washington, D.C.”
Citation required for this explicit language.
Good question! Putin made this explicit warning on November 30 during the online forum for the international business community, Russia Calling. It was partly reported by Reuters, I stress PARTLY: https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/putin-warns-russia-will-act-if-nato-crosses-its-red-lines-ukraine-2021-11-30/ But other media gave extensive attention to precisely the point about placing Russian hypersonic missiles within striking distance of those behind the placement of objectionable missiles in Ukraine, a thinly veiled way of saying “Washington.” In plain English, this means that Russia will hold Washington directly accountable and targetable for whatever crosses its red lines in Ukraine. Just Google the subject and you will see the most complete account in TheDaily Mail, for example.
Thank you for your response. A search of Daily Mail articles for the month of November did not reveal a statement by Putin. However, a Yahoo News report shows this Putin statement:
“If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed. Just imagine,” Putin said.
“What are we to do in such a scenario? We will have to then create something similar in relation to those who threaten us in that way. And we can do that now,” Putin added, referencing Russia’s recent tests of a hypersonic missile.
That’s close enough to your statement, I’d say.
From the horse’s mouth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLttz_UQSaw
Check the Kremlin website.
Feb 4, 2021 American admiral claims US is on the brink of nuclear war with Russia and China. Oh, really…?
America’s four-star Admiral Charles Richard issued a public warning that the US is on the brink of a nuclear war with Russia and China, stressing that US forces must shift their principal assumption from ‘nuclear employment is not possible’ to ‘nuclear employment is a very real possibility.’ Military expert Scott Ritter tells RT that the warning in question itself poses a danger.
https://youtu.be/WaV1XMCh6Fo
Russia’s possibly dividing Ukraine in two at the Dnieper River
My thought exactly but I wouldn’t stop there. Russia should take the entire coastal area right up to Moldova… Land lock the bums!
I hope you realise that Putin has asked the US∕NATO to sign an agreement to stop their encroachment on Russia. Stoltenberg has made an almost hysterical response and SecDef Austin has said the the USSR is invading Ukraine!!! None have even tried to follow the UN-sponsored Minsk Protocol for Kiev to have talks with the Donbass breakaway republics since 2015, while admitting that Ukraine could not “win a war” if Russia invaded. Russia will only “invade” if Kiev pushes too hard.
Look at Alexander Mercouris every night online for a spellbinding discussion with facts!!!