Evelyn Farkas, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, goes full alarmist:
The world will watch our response. Any subsequent acceptance of Russian gains will spell the beginning of the end of the international order. If Europe, NATO, and its allies in Asia and elsewhere fail to defend the foundational United Nations principles of sanctity of borders and state sovereignty, no one will. Any appeasement will only beget future land grabs not only from Putin, but also from China in Taiwan and elsewhere. And if the world’s democracies lack the political will to stop them, the rules-based international order will collapse. The United Nations will go the way of the League of Nations. We will revert to spheres of global influence, unbridled military and economic competition, and ultimately, world war.
A new Russian attack on Ukraine would be illegal and destructive, but we should be very wary of claims that it will have such massive effects. Major powers have waged illegal wars against other countries many times since the end of WWII, but somehow the international system did not come crashing down as a result. The “principles of sanctity of borders and state sovereignty” have been violated on many occasions over the decades, and in many cases our government was the one doing the violating, but the “rules-based international order” didn’t vanish because the rules have sometimes been broken. Hawks have to exaggerate the stakes like this, because if they didn’t they would never be able to sell their extreme policies.
Farkas’ warning has to be so extreme because she is calling for going to war against Russia:
The horrible possibility exists that Americans, with our European allies, must use our military to roll back Russians – even at risk of direct combat.
Read the rest of the article at Eunomia
Daniel Larison is a weekly columnist for Antiwar.com and maintains his own site at Eunomia. He is former senior editor at The American Conservative. He has been published in the New York Times Book Review, Dallas Morning News, World Politics Review, Politico Magazine, Orthodox Life, Front Porch Republic, The American Scene, and Culture11, and was a columnist for The Week. He holds a PhD in history from the University of Chicago, and resides in Lancaster, PA. Follow him on Twitter.
Things may be getting worse. I was aware of the nine NATO military exercises in Ukraine in 2020, but was not aware of their extent.
“Expect Escalation of Conflict in Donbass and Ukraine Soon,” Says Foreign Correspondent
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/01/11/expect-escalation-of-conflict-in-donbass-and-ukraine-soon-says-foreign-correspondent-embedded-in-ukrainian-anti-fascist-brigade/
Zelensky Opens the Way for Foreign Troops to be Permanently and Legally Based in Ukraine
https://www.globalresearch.ca/zelensky-opens-way-foreign-troops-permanently-legally-based-ukraine/5765529
Military exercises will be held both in Ukraine and abroad.
https://www.perild.com/2021/11/29/ukraine-to-conduct-nine-exercises-with-nato-in-2022/
Joint Efforts 2022 multinational exercise. Duration: up to 45 days, February-December 2022.
Ukrainian-American exercises Rapid Trident-2022. Period: up to 45 days, March – December 2022.
Ukrainian-British exercise Kozak Mays-2022. Duration: up to 45 days, March – December 2022.
Multinational exercise Light Avalanche-2022. Duration: up to 45 days, February-December 2022.
Ukrainian-Polish exercises Silver Saber-2022. Duration: up to 90 days: 1st stage – up to 30 days, February – April, 2nd stage – up to 30 days May – July, 3rd stage – up to 30 days August – December
Sea Breeze 2022 Ukrainian-American exercise. Duration: up to 45 days, March – December 2022.
Ukrainian-Romanian exercises Riverine-2022. Duration: up to 45 days, March – December 2022.
Maple Arch multinational exercise 2022. Duration: up to 45 days, March – December 2022.
Viking 2022 multinational exercise. Duration: up to 45 days, February-December 2022.
Note that many of these start in February, around the time of the Beijing Olympics. As others have noted, previous moves against Russia have occurred during the Olympics.
I have been assuming that NATO and the US would not get involved in a Ukraine war with Russia as the goal is to sacrifice Ukraine in order to further anti-Russia moves by the West.
But I now wonder whether these NATO military exercises are intended as a “trip wire” or “cover” for another Ukraine offensive against the Donbass. That could result in NATO forces being used to trigger an Article 5 of the NATO Charter – which in turn would bring in the US.
I am now concerned that the CIA and the neocons have engineered a worse situation than just a war between Ukraine and Russia.
Moon of Alabama’s latest post agrees that the US-Russia talks have failed, including today’s talks between Russia and NATO.
With No Progress In Talks Russia Will Have To React
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/with-no-progress-in-talks-russia-will-have-to-react.html