In my report on “Day Sixteen” of the Ukraine-Russia war a couple of days ago, I provided a brief summary of the opening segment of the 9 March edition of the Russian political talk show “Evening with Vladimir Solovyov.” I directed special attention to the words of Mosfilm Director Karen Shakhnazarov, who set the tone for an unusually grave discussion of war prospects and political stability within Russia.
However, I saved for separate discussion and did not mention one key point made by Shakhnazarov that was picked up by other panelists and became a general topic for discussion: that the Americans are doing everything in their power for this to be a long war and Russia must avoid at all costs following their playbook.
For the Americans, the longer the war drags on, the easier it is to impose ever more punishing sanctions to which European and other allies will also adhere given the negative impact on public opinion about Russia from the scenes of destruction in Ukraine that are shown daily on television. The prolongation of war is supported by the never ending messages of support to the valiant Ukrainian fighters coming in from the United States and the Collective West, from the $13 billion in aid just approved by Congress, from the weaponry and munitions that NATO Member States are now sending in to Ukraine. No one in the West is telling Zelensky to save his country, to save his people by just giving up and submitting to Russia’s demands, though there are reports that Israeli Prime Minister Bennett did just that a day or so ago in a telephone conversation with the Ukrainian leader.
Of course, a separate issue is whether Zelensky could raise the white flag and live to see another day. Russian social media which reported the story of Bennett’s call also posted comments to the effect that Zelensky counts for nothing, that the army and radical nationalists will not follow any orders he may give.
Perhaps for these reasons, the Russian military command through its spokesman Major General Igor Konoshenkov today declared that any convoys carrying foreign weaponry into Ukraine will be considered to be “legitimate targets” and will be destroyed. When the military materiel is exhausted, the Ukrainian forces will have no choice but to surrender.
Meanwhile there are questions about how the Russians will impose demilitarization and denazification in case of victory. Yes, they will have destroyed the military assets of Ukraine by their bombing campaign. However, if the Russians simply get up and leave Ukraine upon signing a peace agreement on recognition of the independence of the Donbas republics and on recognition that Crimea is now Russian, it is entirely foreseeable that the West would rearm Ukraine very quickly, possibly within one year by simple drawdown of the surplus tanks and other gear now in storage in EU countries.
As former Soviet-Russian diplomat, political scientist and activist Nikolay Platoshkin argues, denazification means more than arrest of Nazi radicals in the army, which is by itself beyond the capabilities of the 150,000 Russian troops now at work on Ukrainian territory (in Russian). It means bringing into play Ukrainian Russian-speaking civil society, which has been cowed into submission by eight years of terror inflicted by radical bully boys across the country, so that identification and court proceedings against neo-Nazis and nationalist gangsters proceed without Russian participation. The whole educational system in Ukraine must be reformed to replace the hate literature that currently fills the classrooms and libraries in the guise of textbooks is purged. All of this requires a more comprehensive and effective outreach to the Ukrainian public than the Russian leadership has demonstrated in its conduct of the war till now.
As I mentioned in my last essay, a long, drawn out war may destabilize the Russian government as war protesters rise in numbers and effectiveness. It would also put in jeopardy the support Russia receives from its close friends abroad, China and India. Already now Chinese international broadcaster CGTN is broadcasting news on the Ukraine conflict that is almost undistinguishable from CNN or the BBC in its one-sidedness in favor of the Ukrainian “victims” of Russian aggression. The notion that the Russian-Chinese relationship is “greater than an alliance” will come into question if the war goes on more than one month.
Gilbert Doctorow is a Brussels-based political analyst. His latest book is Does Russia Have a Future? Reprinted with permission from his blog.
© Gilbert Doctorow, 2022
Not “the Americans,” Gilbert. It’s the establishment in Washington, which has been shaped by the establishment in the top media.
“it is entirely foreseeable that the West would rearm Ukraine very quickly”
Yes, but no one will ever talk about Ukraine joining NATO again, or become a NATO outpost. Not in Washington and not in Ukrainian politics.
“so that identification and court proceedings against neo-Nazis”
For what, following the law? Ukrainian law allows the Azov Battalion, and the similar one in Odessa.
What is needed right now is Ukraine’s government agreeing to the three main demands: To be neutral, to recognize Donbass, to recognize Crimea. Russia will stop the war then. Any further digging in Ukrainian politics would be a mistake, same as when the neocons did it in e.g. Afghanistan.
Then the sanctions will be lifted, most of them.
Personally I’d also like to see the Russian-majority provinces be separated from Ukraine, which includes the coastline all the way to Odessa, but you can’t have everything.
Reasonable requests.
Modest to my thinking but very good and easily entreated.
News was that some ‘jewish’ head of state in occupied Palistine told Zelenski to take the offer.
The problem is that the Ukrainian WMDs like weaponized Plutonium are in NATO NATIONS NOW And are out of
Zelenski’s control. Zelenski cannot honor PEACE.
Does NATO intend to defend its resident Hebrew Diaspora by trying to destroy Russia’s? This present attack on Russia is the same outward policy that assasinated the Tsar from Our shores and G.B’s after the Russians helped the North win its civil war by blockading our ports from reb scum. This time Russia are marching like Sherman to the Atlantic, how far is up to NATO.
2 KITTY
OUT
Nope. It was Bennett.
Biden could have sat down with Zelensky and Putin and hammered out those details. Bennett in Israel appears to agree in telling Zelensky to take the deal Putin is offering. The main problem is the Biden administration. And the talking head retired Generals. And the warmongers in his administration. And the warmongers in the other party. And the think tank idiots who think we (USA) could survive a nuclear exchange. How is Biden going to preside over a D.C. that glows in the dark???
I voted for Biden. It was a hard thing to do, but Trump was stirring up the NAZIs far too much.
My primary reservation in casting that vote was that Biden might get us into WWIII.
And so it goes.
say what you like about Trump, but he is one president that didn’t have a new war on his timeline
.
I understand that and have acknowledged it in the past.
He attacked Venezuela stealing their money, economic warfare -a war crime. Murdered general Suleimani in Iraq, Attacked Syria. Murdered people with drones, continued war against Yemen – war crimes. He murdered an 8 year old US citizen. He pushed militarism and mass war spending. He sent Javelins to Ukraine. Wake from your stupor.
LOL!
Gordon Robertson showed a map this week of 700 CLUB’S UKRANIAN OUTLETS OF AID.
GORDON SAID THAT HIS NONPROFIT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED IN the UKRAINE FOR 30 YEARS.
30 YEARS OF PAT’S MASONIC INFLUENCE SELLING HIS HOLY WAR!
In The Ukraine?
Recently Pat was seen on his news entertainment non-profit to cite Ezekiel chapter 38 and to sell the World that the word ROSH ( properly translated as ‘Head’ or ‘Chief’ really is Russia. The entire USA military effort is steered by illiterate religous war industry mongers who’s whole Strategy and tactic surrounds the idea that a war with Russia is a righteous war to win and prevail over by divine fiat. The winner gets the plumb: dominion over Palestine like the 10 traitorous northern tribes did when Nebuchadnezzar hauled the Levites and Temple accrutrements to Babylon. They set up their own King and high priest, the archetype of every counterfeit poseur like Cain, Nimrod, Esau etc; wicked men who were never in the genealogy of the Promised Redeemer Shepherd/Just King.
And it is the great war that Ezekiel chapter 38 outlines that we are facing but the narrative of Who is Wicked that is really really buried in A pile of overpriced Pat Boone gold coins. For 30 years US war lobbyists led by their false prophets like Graham and so many more have been fleshing out a war against ‘Rosh’ and it is Rumble Time!
A perfect war! Kushner sold radarless P.A.T.R.I.O.T systems to Arabs to exact Peace through force. Starlink is integrated as a P.hased A.rray to provide 24/7 Forceful and Peaceful security with SDI CO2 lasers to take out ICBM’S. XL oil not tar sand oil was piped and processed and many more indicators of pre war infrastructure like coal ports and LNG ports and Nitrogen fertilizer plants and our Spaz Force indicated we are going to rumble. All on a wrong interpretation of scripture: one of 4 reactions to God’s Word when TWISTED is self preservation. These freaks intend to ride out the trib in 5 star amenities with canned peaches and lots of ammo.
This week Gordon Robertson reported that biological and tactical nukes were going to be used by Russia. Let’s Rumble Now! We missed all the great anticipated cyber warfare we were told to expect* from Russia too, so let’s get this party started. * Russia took out the communications and cyber warfare is not a feature of RUSSIAN WARFARE like our experts want to sell. The cyber problems here are linked to outsourced domestic terrorism: Poland is chief with Finland and Ukraine.
Rosh is not Russia in Ezekiel chapter 38.
The names of the peoples and regions are geographic heritages of the three sons of Noah. Gog was the offspiring of Japheth as was Nimrod. The interpretation is of a people who orchestrate a war, who become embroiled in a conflict to accomplish one task for a false god: to steal, to kill and to destroy : John 10:10. Masons and Mormons are spiritual filth descended from Japheth. This same ‘ bad seed’ of the unholy is not limited to a genetic line as chapter 38 reveals, all three branches of Noah are contaminated.
We go to a holy war on a lie from hell. In order to completely kill the Hebrew Diaspora, this war needs to be big: the Diaspora are everywhere. Mathew 24:22 says:
And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect’s sake those days shall be shortened.
Days. It says days. That is how intense it is going to be: Absolute War .
Romans 10:9
2 kitty out
Unfortunately Gilbert has gone back to “concern trolling”. Well, that may be a bit harsh on my part. Yes, he has some valid “concerns”. However, none of them are going to work out in the West’s favor.
Let’s parse this bit by bit…
“For the Americans, the longer the war drags on, the easier it is to impose ever more punishing sanctions to which European and other allies will also adhere…”
Uhm, no. As Alexander Mercouris has repeatedly pointed out in his videos, the West has “shot its load” in terms of sanctions. There are no more significant sanctions that can be imposed on Russia.
Second, Russia has been preparing for this for years, since at least 2014 when the first tranche of sanctions were imposed. While Russia may not have expected the sanctions on the Russian Central Bank, there are indications that they have ways of dealing with it. Also, we need to remember that Russia has yet to impose its own counter-sanctions, for which they many options which will be very painful for the West.
“Russian social media which reported the story of Bennett’s call also posted comments to the effect that Zelensky counts for nothing, that the army and radical nationalists will not follow any orders he may give.”
This part Gilbert gets right. Zelensky is entirely owned and operated by the CIA at this point. Not to mention, as I have previously, his reputed cocaine addiction, which explains his emotional instability. As Scott Ritter has said, everything you are seeing coming out of Ukraine right now is part of a CIA “information operation.” That is, the CIA is stage-managing every bit of information coming out of Ukraine. Ritter knows how this works because he has been a participant in such operations in the past.
Also, we need to keep in mind that the neo-Nazi apparatus is embedded in every sector of the Ukrainian government, from the police to the military to the foreign affairs. As Ritter points out, they’ve even bragged about their penetration of the Ukrainian government. Every President since Yanukovich has been explicitly threatened with death if they make any concessions to Russia.
“When the military materiel is exhausted, the Ukrainian forces will have no choice but to surrender.”
Correct. Which is why Russia has been concentrating on the military infrastructure as opposed to killing Ukrainian soldiers. Russia has a political objective here and it needs a functioning Ukrainian military in the future – just not one embedded with neo-Nazis and nationalist fanatics. More on that later.
“However, if the Russians simply get up and leave Ukraine upon signing a peace agreement…”
Who says Russia is going to do that? They haven’t. They’ve said the military operation will be over if Ukraine lays down their arms. Since they know the neo-Nazis aren’t going to and that the neo-Nazis are embedded in the Ukrainian military, they know that isn’t going to happen until the Ukrainian army realizes their full defeat. Which will happen when the Ukrainian units currently encircled in eastern Ukraine have surrended or been annihilated.
Russia has not said anything about stopping the “de-militarization” – which Scott Ritter says means removing anything connecting the Ukrainian military with NATO and removing anything which could threaten Russia – and “de-Nazification”. Those will continue even when military hostilities have stopped.
” it is entirely foreseeable that the West would rearm Ukraine very quickly, possibly within one year by simple drawdown of the surplus tanks and other gear now in storage in EU countries.”
No. Here Gilbert reveals his complete lack of military knowledge. You don’t reform a military in one year. And even if you could, what part of “rinse and repeat” the current operation doesn’t he get?
“denazification means more than arrest of Nazi radicals in the army, which is by itself beyond the capabilities of the 150,000 Russian troops now at work on Ukrainian territory…”
I don’t know who this Russia is that he refers to on this, but he’s wrong. In fact, it’s incomprehensibly wrong. Once the Ukrainian military is defeated, all its records are open to inspection. Russia will have no problem identifying, locating and arresting – or executing on the spot, which is more likely – almost all the neo-Nazis embedded in the Ukrainian army – at least, those who haven’t already fled to western Ukraine or Poland.
“It means bringing into play Ukrainian Russian-speaking civil society, which has been cowed into submission by eight years of terror inflicted by radical bully boys across the country, so that identification and court proceedings against neo-Nazis and nationalist gangsters proceed without Russian participation.”
Who says this will proceed without Russian participation? All Russia has to do is reorient the Ukrainian government after getting rid of the present regime. Scott Ritter thinks Russia already knows who will form a new “caretaker” government. The primary aim, identified in the Minsk Package of Measures, involves modification of the Ukrainian Constitution to reorganize Ukraine into a federated government, with autonomy for various regions.
In addition, Russia will require the new Constitution to ban membership in NATO, as well as banning the neo-Nazi political parties and militias. Subsequent to the formation of the new Ukrainian government, after new elections, the Ukrainian law enforcement services, backed by Russian intelligence services, will ensure that no underground movements gain sufficient traction to threaten the new government and the political process in Ukraine.
Note that the previous election of Yanukovich, who was pro-Russian, was with the support of eastern Ukraine. The subsequent elections of Poroshenko and Zelensky were based on their (false) promises of establishing peace in Ukraine. Does that sound the entirety of Ukraine is interested in restarting a war with Russia?
In addition, with regards to the oblasts in western Ukraine which are avowedly anti-Russian, there is a relatively simply solution: deport them to the West. Just as Russia and Syria deported the jihadists to Idlib and to Turkey, the Russians, once they have seized Lvov, can identity everyone involved with nationalist and neo-Nazi parties and they and the new Ukrainian government can simply deport them to the West. Once border is re-established, they just won’t be let back in. Combined with the ban of their parties and militias, they won’t be able to influence the internal Ukrainian political process. And the Ukrainian and Russian intelligence services can prevent any underground movement.
Finally, as Scott Ritter also points out, between 1945 and 1955, western Ukraine fought a bloody insurgency against the Soviet Union. They lost 250,000 lives compared to 23,000 Russian lives. If a repeat is necessary, Russia will do it. But in my view, deportation is much easier.
“The whole educational system in Ukraine must be reformed…”
That is a process for the new Ukrainian government, not Russia.
“All of this requires a more comprehensive and effective outreach to the Ukrainian public than the Russian leadership has demonstrated in its conduct of the war till now.”
This is just stupid. We’re in a hot war. How do you do these things in the middle of a hot war? Get a clue, Gilbert. You don’t think Russia has considered how these things need to progress subsequent to the cessation of military hostilities?
“a long, drawn out war may destabilize the Russian government as war protesters rise in numbers and effectiveness.”
The consensus of Scott Ritter and Mark Sleboda – who are both married to Russian and Georgian wives and who have considerable knowledge of Russians, especially Mark who actually lives in Russia – is that this is not going to happen. While sections of the Russian population, specifically the “Western intellectuals” and the “Moscow business class”, who are very Westernized, might bitch and moan, the bulk of Russia will not. This is proved by the increase in support for Putin in the polls, where he is around 68-71% approval at this point.
Not to mention that his isn’t going to be a “long war.” What IS a “long war”? Iraq was a short war that turned into a long war. Afghanistan was a “short war” that turned into a long war. Ukraine is going to be a war where the military hostilities are over within two months. There will be no “occupation” of the entire country, but only Russian units embedded in specific places of strategic importance for the short time it takes to reorient the Ukrainian government, produce a new Constitution and hold new elections. Cleaning out western Ukraine of nationalist fanatics and neo-Nazis will take longer, but the new Ukrainain government, with assistance from Russian intelligence services, can handle that without the presence of full Russian military presence – which can be reinstated in specific places as needed if necessary.
” It would also put in jeopardy the support Russia receives from its close friends abroad, China and India. Already now Chinese international broadcaster CGTN is broadcasting news on the Ukraine conflict that is almost undistinguishable from CNN or the BBC in its one-sidedness in favor of the Ukrainian “victims” of Russian aggression. The notion that the Russian-Chinese relationship is “greater than an alliance” will come into question if the war goes on more than one month.”
Bullcrap. He needs to listen to Chinese outlets other than CGTN. There has been no question of Chinese support for Russia in this matter, as Mercouris has analyzed Chinese statements from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and editorials in Global Times, which reflects Chinese official positions.
In short, the bulk of this article, while raising issues of importance, is mostly “concern trolling”. There are ways of dealing with every issue raised. Whether Russia will do so is not certain. But there is no apriori reason that Russia can’t deal with these issues.
We all too often lose sight of how we Ukraine and “the West” got into this mess and how we might get out of it. The violent 2014 (supported by the U.S.), the civil war since (attacks on the Luhansk and Donetsk regions by the Ukrainian military), Russia’s offering some terms of negotiation prior to the invasion of Ukraine (rejected out of hand by the U.S.). This crisis could have been avoided. Mutual respect for and maintaining the national security interests of all countries is the key to stability on this planet. Negotiate when issues arise. The U.S. refuses to do these things. And here we are. Another war started by the U.S.