On 15 May 2024, I was in Sydney, Australia, where I spoke at the Centre for Independent Studies about the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. I analyzed both the war in Gaza, which started on October 7 and continues to rage; and the fighting between Iran on one side and Israel and the US on the other side, that took place between 1 April and 19 April 2024.
I then assessed the consequences of these two conflicts for Israel, the US, and Iran.
Editor’s Note: This is a very informative and insightful talk. I learned a lot. ~EG
Reposted from John’s Substack with permission.
It is the current war against Gaza.
“ The Gaza–Israel conflict is a localized part of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict beginning in 1948, when 200,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from their homes, settling in the Gaza Strip as refugees.[1] Since then, Israel has fought 15[2] wars against the Gaza Strip. The number of Gazans reportedly killed in the most recent 2023 war — 34,000 — is higher than the death toll of all other wars of the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
Wikipedia
Good post John.
It’s surely higher than 34k, now.
“There’s No Place Like Home”.
I don’t bother with Mearsheimer any more. He just wants this war to end so the US can fight China. That’s what “Realist foreign policy” means to him. He still sees China and the US as a zero-sum game – which his policy will make inevitable. And then the US will lose. Not that it wouldn’t lose anyway because the US’ time as hegemony is over. Deal.
Well as far as I am aware Mearsheimer doesn’t have a policy. And if he did, no one in power is listening to him.
But it doesn’t matter if you agree or disagree with him on his views on the inevitability of great power competition between the US and China, it is consistent with the theory.
I don’t agree either and think the theory is insufficient and it’s simplicity results in failing when dealing with powers who do not conform to traditional Western, as you say, zero sum thinking.
But if that is true then that doesn’t invalidate anything he said he about the Israeli objective of genocide, systematically eradicating Palestinians.
The argument is stated very clearly and characteristically simple in the form of a choice for Israel between 4 options exhausting all possibilities, none of which are conducive to or even compatible with a viable future for Israel. Those choices would be 1. the famous “two state solution” 2. a single or binational citizenship- instead of ethnicity based state, 3. the continuation of occupation and an Apartheid system guaranteed to get ever worse in time, or 4. ethnic cleansing by either expulsion or genocide of the Palestinians.
And the conclusion is that Israel wanting to preserve the “Jewish state” saw no future for itself other than to go with option 4. And this then explains the intentionality and deliberation of the systematic execution of the genocide we see unfolding.
So, he’s like Kissinger? I doubt what you say, because he would know the US can’t stay ahead of China. I suspect his real position is more nuanced.
In truth it doesn’t matter who is on top. But he possibly makes arguments to appeal to those who believe it matters.
An argument isn’t necessarily one’s true position.
I don’t want the global elite to unify. So, some division might be good.
After listening to most of the video, I conclude you’re mistaken. However, you might be correct if I saw more evidence.
May 16, 2024 223 days of Israeli aggression: 35,272 killed, 79,205 injured in Gaza
On the 223rd day of the Israeli genocide, more martyrs and wounded have been reported as a result of continuous airstrikes targeting the Gaza Strip.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/223-days-of-israeli-aggression–35-272-killed–79-205-injure
So, Iran lacks nuclear delivery capability, still. But it’s close. I just assumed they already had delivery capability.
Separately, Iran attacks via proxies. If only Saddam’s party were still in power in Iraq… But the US empowered Iran by removing Saddam. The US needed a pro-Israel Saddam replacement.
Yes, that enrichment & rocket science bit was a regrettable interlude of freestyle speculation that could have better been omitted entirely. That definitely didn’t meet the standard of his talks that I grew accustomed to.
The secret plan to destroy and drive all the Palestinians out of Gaza was initiated a while back between Israel, UAE, Egypt, SA with US support and blessings.
Israel can either expel them or rebuild. It pretty much must expel them to survive long term. Or it can form a unitary state, but there’s now too much hatred.
Update: Israel labeled as worse than apartheid South Africa!! (In video)