Reprinted from Bracing Views with the author’s permission.
What is the point of playing Russian roulette – with Russia?
As the Biden administration fades into oblivion, among its last decisions has been to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with U.S.-made ATACMS, a missile with a range of 300 kilometers (190 miles). Ukraine’s recent use of these missiles brought a worrisome response from Russia: hypersonic intermediate-range missiles. If Ukraine persists in striking deeper into Russia with U.S., British, and French missiles, the Russian response will be proportionately greater, and possibly escalatory against NATO.
Here’s the thing: These missiles are too few in number to have a decisive impact on the course of the war. Ukraine isn’t going to “win” by launching ATACMS and similar tactical missiles. Yes, they can inflict more pain on Russia, hitting targets like ammunition dumps, military bases, and the like. But nobody is pretending these are war-winning weapons. All they promise is more dead bodies on both sides.
In World War I, new weapons were often introduced because it was believed they would prove decisive on the battlefield, weapons such as poison gas (1915) and tanks (1916). Of course, the other side adapted fairly quickly and the war dragged on, but at least there was a sincere belief that new weapons might break the awful stalemate of trench warfare.
There is no such sincere belief today. The main objective seems to be to complicate matters for the incoming Trump administration and its stated goal to end the Russia-Ukraine War. To that end, the Biden administration is using all means at its disposal to send the remaining $6 billion or so in weapons and related aid to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration in January. Even anti-personnel mines are included in the mix.
Here’s how Antony Blinken put it:
President Biden is committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and January 20.
We’re making sure that Ukraine has the air defenses it needs, that it has the artillery it needs, that it has the armored vehicles it needs.
If only the Biden administration had been so committed to helping Americans in need.
In playing Russian roulette with Russia, Biden and Blinken have demonstrated unconscionable levels of recklessness and stupidity.
William J. Astore, a retired lieutenant colonel (USAF), professor of history, and a senior fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network (EMN), an organization of critical veteran military and national security professionals. His personal substack is Bracing Views. His video testimony for the Merchants of Death Tribunal is available at this link.
Here's the new problem: It's not just ATACMS any more.
I believe the US is considering using the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to hit inside Russia using Tomahawk cruise missiles.
This ties together Zelensky's request for Tomahawks, as well as Ukraine's request for more "advanced air defenses" – specifically the THAAD and the Aegis Ashore systems – as well as US discussions about "giving Ukraine nuclear weapons", as reported here earlier.
All three requests can be satisfied by arranging for the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania to be used in support of Ukraine.
Think about it: What difference is it from using US supplied and US operated ATACMS to using US supplied and US operated Aegis Ashore?
This is how the idiots in Washington think. They don't comprehend that Russia already views the Aegis Ashore as a major strategic threat to Russia, both for its ability to intercept Russian ICBMs in the context of a Russian retaliatory strike in a nuclear war, and its ability to participate in a decapitation strike by the US against Russia as part of the initiation of such a war.
Never mind that Tomahawks are old and slow, easily intercepted by Russia's advanced AD systems, and subject to Russian ECM as they were in Syria during Trump's ill-advised attacks on Syria facilities.
This is not Syria. Russia will have to treat any Tomahawk launched from Poland or Romania as a nuclear strike.
This is why Russia recently designated those installations as priority targets. They always werre priority targets.
This is also why Russia demonstrated its new Oreshnik ("Hazel") missile. It is precisely that missile which can destroy those installations.
And it is likely Russia issued that warning precisely becuase they know that Washington is considering using those installations in support of Ukraine.
This would be a direct initiation of WWIII – not just over a few ATACMS.
Nice summation. Everyone needs to get their heads out of their collective buttocks! Wake up and smell the toast burning before the earth actually is!…
Yes, the $200 Billion (plus) spent on a proxy war, if put into jobs (infrastructure, etc.), job training (apprenticeships, etc.), and basic health care here at home would have gone a long way toward nurturing voter positivity. Instead, the Democrats spent close to $1 Billion putting lipstick on a pig and calling it a candidate. And got the shellacking they deserved.
Neither Biden nor Harris can stand up to the Republicans on domestic affairs so they focus on foreign affairs and started a proxy war in Ukraine due to NATO Expansion further east and closer to Russia's borders.
NATO and Zelensky are using the Ukrainians as cannon fodder and say Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine but they deny Israel is committing genocide in Gaza that will spread like wildfire to Lebanon, the West Bank and more places and is planning for a war with Iran.
They can't even do much of that. Observe:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/zelenskys-atacms-gambit-nuclear-red
The Ukrainians used footage from September to pretend there was a big explosion after using six ATACMs this week. The Russians say they shot down five of the six, and satellite photos don't show much damage. There are only 50 ATACMs missiles in Ukraine and Zelensky wasted six on hitting an old Soviet depot that has no connection to the current war, but that contains ammunition that could go boom and give him some mushroom-cloud footage. To impress those who don't know any better.
Zelensky didn't hit any relevant sites as they are too well-defended, the ATACMS would get shot down.
The British Storm Shadow missiles fly closer to the ground and are more difficult to shoot down. But even they could only hit a site by Kursk, which they pretend was a Russian command center. But the Russians never place their commands that close to the front. (Except if you look up distances from WWI and WWII, but that was generations ago.)
Why don't they strike farther into Russia? Because then the fighter jets carrying the Storm Shadows would have to move closer to the Russian border, and be shot down. They had to fire from far away now, likely all the way back by the Dniepr river. Just like how they keep their precious F16s in western Ukraine to avoid having them shot down.
So, the "long-range missiles" aren't so long-range after all. Not when the planes themselves can't go any closer.
So this was Zelensky's usual show, all PR and no substance.
They claimed they killed a "North Korean general", then walked that back to "hurt," but both are ludicrous – they have also claimed to kill Korean soldiers without a single ground or drone photo, as there are no Korean soldiers fighting, it was just an argument for getting to use long-range missiles.
As for the equivalent French missiles, there are only ten of them.
Approval of landmines double-proves Joe's sociopathic lack of humanity.
“Let there be peace on Earth and let it begin with me!… With every step I take, a Peace for eternity!…”