Recommended reading
Good stuff at Noah Schachtman’s place, taking off from this must-read Washpost article. Schachtman: Bottom line: the Bush administration thinks fighting terrorism is like taking on the Mob; all you have to do is lock up the top bosses, and the gang will fall apart.
What a pleasant little world we’d live in, if that were true. It ain’t. Because Al Qaeda isn’t a mafia, with a small band of non-replaceable criminal chiefs. It’s a cancer. And, by misdiagnosing the problem, the White House is helping it spread. Pay special attention to Frances Fragos Townsend’s background and role in Bush’s strategy.
The next post, INSURGENTS = ENTREPRENEURS? links to John Robb’s site, Global Guerrillas. I’m kicking myself that I haven’t read this blog before. A sample:
The long history of warfare is dominated by military entrepreneurs. That dominance was overturned only recently (within an historical context) with the rise of the nation-state and its ideologically motivated armies. However, the trend is going in the other direction, and quickly. Military entrepreneurship is again on the rise. We can see the adoption of military entrepreneurs by the coalition in Iraq. Private military companies (PMCs) field the second largest military force in Iraq, after the US — the UK is a distant third.
This shift towards military entrepreneurship is even more pronounced in the insurgency in Iraq. Almost all of the guerrillas we are currently fighting were formed through this process. This should come as no surprise to readers of history (and particularly readers of this author, since it appeared here first). Arab warfare, until late in this century, was driven entirely by entrepreneurship. For example: Lawrence of Arabia, the father of modern guerrilla warfare, used combinations of direct payments and the promise of loot to build his forces. Faith played a major part, but it was almost always secondary.
Recent reports confirm from the US military analysts confirm the financial nature of the open source bazaar in Iraq:
- “Unlimited amounts” of violence capital for guerrilla entrepreneurs is flowing into Iraq from ex-Baathists, relatives of Saddam Hussein, Saudi sources, and bin Laden. Given global guerrilla ROIs (returns on investment) of up to 100,000 x, this should be cause for alarm.
- Loot from convoy hijackings, theft of oil through bunkering, and ransoms play a major part of the motivation for attacks. Fully 80% of the attacks fall into this category.
- A granular competitive market. There are over 50 guerrilla groups active in Iraq. The sheer diversity of the effort indicates a process that is very similar to historical patterns of Arab warfare.
- Price schedules for attacks. The going rate for placing an IED is $100-$300 (more for an RPG attack).