All indications are that the Reformist candidate, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian, has won the Presidential snap elections in Iran and defeated ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili.
What does this mean for Iran, its foreign policy, and US-Iran relations?
A few thoughts:
1. Turnout appears to have been around 50%, which is an increase over both the first round (~39%) and the 2021 elections (47%). But this is still very low for Iran, where participation often has been above 70%.
2. It is particularly noteworthy that participation amongst conservatives has been at an all-time low. Usually, with participation this low, the Conservative candidate would have won. But not this time. We’re seeing clear signs that unhappiness, if not resentment, with the current system is not limited to non-conservative circles.
3. For many, this is perhaps the best outcome. On the one hand, the conservative candidate was defeated, on the other hand, it was with such a low turnout that it sends a clear warning to the system.
4. Given that Pezeshkian likely will bring back many foreign policy hands from the Rouhani team, the group that negotiated the JCPOA, some important changes in Iran’s foreign policy are likely.
5. Pezeshkian spoke strongly about the need for Iran to resolve its tensions with the West. Moreover, he called for direct negotiations rather than talks through mediators. Pezeshkian made this call within the context of Trump potentially becoming the next president of the United States. This would be a significant shift if the Iranians agreed to directly engage with the US even with Trump as president.
6. This does not in and of itself undo the many factors that render a revival of the Iran nuclear deal – the JCPOA – very difficult. Key factors have changed in both the US and in Iran, making the old bargain unattractive to both sides. But political will may now exist – on the Iranian side at least – for a new bargain. Whether it exists on the American side is a different story. But even if the JCPOA cannot be revived, there may still be other arrangements that the US and Iran can pursue if diplomacy is allowed to take place.
6. Pezeshkian and his team are not likely to have a significant impact on Iran’s regional policies, however. Regional policies will continue to be a domain dominated by the IRGC. However, the new president may adopt a much more visible and forward-leaning diplomatic strategy in the region. For instance, Iran may play a more visible diplomatic role on Gaza going forward.
7. The same is true for Lebanon, where both the US and Iran have a shared interest in preventing a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon. Much more can be done by both sides to prevent this looming disaster.
8. But the biggest story here remains that half the population in Iran sat out this election, and many of those who boycotted the ballot were conservatives. A clear warning has been sent to the ruling elite. Whether the Supreme Leader and those around him will read it correctly is a different matter.
Sincerely,
Trita Parsi
The Quincy Institute
I somewhat hate this just because it sounds like the assassination achieved the desired results. So, this is how the world really works, and if it gets more like this, we could lose our current prosperity as a result of the constant conflict.
This is how the world has always worked. Which is why, people should not credit presidents for any accomplishments because people behind the scenes are the ones who get things done.
I get the impression that governments have held back with assassinations for reasons similar to why they hold back from nuclear war.
Hopefully, Mr. Knapp never activates to eliminate enemies of anarchy. Were he to act, he might one day come for me.
My policy these days is to only use violence in self-defense or in defense of innocent others. So unless you were physically present and trying to impose a state on me in the absence of one, you would presumably have nothing to worry about.
A reformist, Masoud Perzeshkian won the presidential election. I don't think there will be an improvement in relations with the West. Joe Biden did not revive the Iran Deal that Donald Trump scrapped. Israel is on the warpath and will not chill out any time soon.
Sound logic PP500, sound indeed. WWIII is not something I care to see.
Maybe you won’t see it. If it kills us, we won’t be there to witness it.
"if diplomacy is allowed to take place."
Now what planet is it that you live on, Trita? TRUMP is going to be President – the guy who assassinated Qassem Soleimani, who threatened to bomb Iran over a drone shootdown, who threatens to exterminate the Palestinians, who surrounded himself with Deep State neocons his first term…
And what do you think Israel and Jarod Kushner are going to be doing all this time (assuming Israel even lasts until Trump gets elected)?
Get a fucking clue.
It's amazing how these so-called "pundits" are so buried in wish-fulfillment that they'd need the Hubble Telescope to see reality?
Trump isn’t President yet. Biden increasingly looks like he’s not a candidate.
I'd say Parsi very likely knows quite a bit more about the situation than yourself … his thoughts and commentary over the years have been very courageous (he's attacked all the time by both IR regime and Shah supporters in the west) and informative.
Here's a Twitter comment on the so-called "low turnout":
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2ff1872555ffcca13ac7061cb422fdf6ebb41b660d45033cab6be6afe77cb43.jpg
Of course the west's MSM tries to set the narrative to its advantage.
However, turnout is relative to the nation, and, for Iran, turnout has been historically low these recent elections indicating that Iranians (like us westerners :)) are discovering elections are not necessarily the panacea they were promised to be.
Distributed property ownership and empowered small business seem more important than voting.
The US MSM is one of the world’s most dishonest.
I don't even think appeasement is possible much less negotiations until there is a major shift in the world's foreign policies. How do you appease someone like Joe Biden who just the other day said I am running the world? Complete capitulation to the immaculate indispensable enforcer of the ever changing rules based order I guess.
I would find it inconceivable that Pezeshkian actually believes that the reason the west is sanctioning Iran is because of the the peaceful nuclear program. It is actually their foreign policy and support for the Palestinians. Which leaves me wondering, how much does Pezeshkian care about the Palestinians?
Perhaps it's time to re-negotiate the JCPOA without the participation of the senile old man and his band of war criminals.
Something of benefit to the rest of the planet might just appear.
how can there be a new bargain when the US does not keep its word?
That would be waste of time no matter who the US president is…! If Iran thinks by reviving JCPOA or a modified version of it the sanctions will be lifted, they're badly mistaken…! US cannot be trusted and Iran should not fall in the US and EU trap again…!
Where can trust begin and, indeed, how?!
Initial Trust begins with US lifting some important sanctions with no deal out of the blue…!