Author: Daniel Larison

Van Jackson identifies some of the things that we can reliably predict about Trump’s foreign policy:

Will Trump preside over a growing defense budget that officially eclipses more than $1 trillion? Will US grand strategy remain primacist? Will economic statecraft consist primarily of tariffs and sanctions? Will the US military end up conducting operations of some kind inside Mexico’s borders? Will the US continue providing a blank check to Israel?

The answer to all these questions is assuredly “Yes.”

It remains to be seen what changes Trump will to the foreign policy he is inheriting, but judging from his first term it is safe to assume he will preserve the worst of Biden’s policies while reneging on any remaining useful diplomatic agreements. Trump is also likely to introduce some of his own ill-conceived policies. Launching attacks in Mexico will be one of these. James Bosworth warned last week that “the signs are that the incoming Trump administration is preparing for an actual war against the drug cartels in 2025 that goes well beyond the “War on Drugs” of the past.”

Continue reading “A Cartel War Is Incredibly Stupid, But Trump Will Do It Anyway”

Jonah Blank tries to make the case that Biden can somehow salvage something from the wreckage of his policies in the Middle East:

Biden has so far failed to achieve his highest goals for the Middle East – but in his final days he can single-handedly reset the Israeli-Palestinian equation, preserve the potential for a two-state solution, and rescue much of his tarnished legacy. His status as a lame duck paradoxically gives him the power to do things possible only for a leader whose next step is retirement.

Biden is not going to do any of this. He has already shown that he will spend what little time he has left in office running interference for Netanyahu and letting the Israeli government off the hook for its many crimes. The president’s lame duck status might theoretically free him to do things he wouldn’t normally do, but Biden doesn’t want to do any of those things. To the extent that Biden feels less constrained now that the election is over, he no longer feels any need to pretend that his administration cares about what happens in Gaza. The cynical deadline that Blinken and Austin set before the election came and went, conditions in Gaza keep getting worse because the Israeli government is starving the people to death, and the Biden administration will make no changes to their policy.

Continue reading “There Is No Salvaging Biden’s Legacy”

The Washington Post published a despicable editorial in response the International Criminal Court’s warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant:

But the arrest orders undermine the ICC’s credibility and give credence to accusations of hypocrisy and selective prosecution. The ICC is putting the elected leaders of a democratic country with its own independent judiciary in the same category as dictators and authoritarians who kill with impunity.

If the ICC had not issued these warrants in the face of the overwhelming evidence that the Israeli government was using starvation as a weapon, that would have been devastating to the Court’s credibility in the eyes of most nations. Everyone would have concluded that the ICC had bowed to American political pressure by letting these officials off the hook. It is a victory for international law that they didn’t allow fears of the insane backlash from Washington to influence their decision.

Continue reading “Who Takes International Law Seriously?”

Alex de Waal calls for international action to halt the famines in Gaza and Sudan:

The Gaza figures are particularly shocking because, before October last year, acute malnutrition levels were about 1% and general mortality was just a quarter of the background rates in countries such as Somalia and South Sudan. Many children suffered micronutrient deficiencies, but few were underweight. After 7 October, acute food crisis indicators went off a cliff, with unparalleled speed.

And it’s a near certainty that when the death toll from hunger and disease is finally measured, it will number in the tens of thousands. In my book, Gaza counts as a famine.

The famines in Sudan and Gaza are both human-made. Stopping them requires political and humanitarian action. Justice and humanity demand calling out the men who are making them and the foreign powers that enable them.

Continue reading “Gaza Is Still Being Deliberately Starved to Death”

The Washington Post published an article Saturday with a headline saying that Iran hawks would have “less sway” in the next Trump administration, and then the article says this:

Trump’s election victory has meant that the GOP’s traditionalist foreign policy hawks — for whom Iran has long been a top focus — are ascendant once again [bold mine-DL], as the party prepares to take control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.

To Tehran, the message from many of Trump’s surrogates has taken the form of a broad warning. Gone, they say, is the Democrats’ “weak” policy of appeasement. Prepare to be squeezed into submission.

Continue reading “Iran Hawks Rule the Roost”

The Biden administration confirmed that it would do absolutely nothing while the Israeli government starves and ethnically cleanses north Gaza:

Washington last month told Israel to take “urgent and sustained actions” to improve the catastrophic conditions in the Palestinian enclave within 30 days and warned that if it did not, US military aid to Israel could be at risk.

However, after secretary of state Antony Blinken was briefed on Monday by Israeli minister of strategic affairs Ron Dermer on how his government had improved conditions in Gaza, the Biden administration decided that no further action was needed.

Continue reading “Go Not Abroad To Arm and Defend Monsters”