During a 7-minute interview today I was asked whether a lack of good intelligence accounts for the surprisingly rapid Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.
I used the opportunity to ring some intelligence-related changes on what Aeschylus wrote so long ago: "In war, truth is the first casualty." When U.S. forces are engaged in war independent intelligence analysis ranks right up there with truth as casualty.
This was abundantly clear at a critical juncture during the war in Vietnam. In 1967, an intelligence community National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on enemy strength was suppressed. Richard Helms, head of the intelligence community as well as of CIA, declared he would not dare to get into a "pissing contest" with the US Army at war. And so, the South Vietnam-wide Viet Cong offensive at Tet (Jan.-Feb. 1968) came as a disastrous surprise to folks who bought what "military intelligence" in Saigon had been saying.
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