Antiwar.com Blog

Reagan-era hawk Edward Luttwak calls for U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in today’s NYT. Sort of.

[F]ew Americans are prepared to simply abandon Iraq. For one, they are rightly concerned that to do so would be a mortal blow to America’s global credibility and encourage violent Islamists everywhere. An outright withdrawal would leave the interim government and its feeble forces of doubtful loyalty to face the attacks of vastly emboldened Baath regime loyalists, Sunni revanchists, local and foreign Islamist extremists and the ever-more numerous Shiite militias. The likely result would be the defection of the government’s army, police and national guard members, followed by a swift collapse and then civil war. Worse might follow in the Middle East – it usually does – even to the point of invasions by Iran, Turkey and possibly others, initiating new cycles of repression and violence.

Thus the likely consequences of an American abandonment are so bleak that few Americans are even willing to contemplate it. This is a mistake: it is precisely because unpredictable mayhem is so predictable that the United States might be able to disengage from Iraq at little cost, or even perhaps advantageously.

Luttwak goes on to explain why a U.S. threat to withdraw might force all quarrelsome parties – Shi’ite, Sunni, Arab, Kurd, Iranian, Turk, etc. – to root for the USA. And if they didn’t, Luttwak says, then we would have to leave. Are any of the president’s advisers thinking along these lines?

Whatever you think of Moqtada al Sadr, you have to admire the deft manueuvering that keeps everyone off-balance with the wrong foot forward. While practically all the news reports on this development claim some variation on the Mahdi Army surrenders/Sadr Agrees to Peace Plan theme, take a look at what the spokesman for Sadr actually said.

A spokesperson for rebel leader Moqtada Sadr expressed surprise on Wednesday at threats of an imminent attack on his militia by Iraqi forces, saying the Shiite cleric had agreed to demands made by peace mediators.

“We are surprised by the declaration and threat by the minister of defence … because we have given our full accord to the initiative presented by the delegation,” Ahmed Shibani said on Al-Jazeera television.

Defence minister Hazem al-Shaalan vowed that a “decisive” battle would be launched against Sadr militiamen, who he said must surrender within hours in the central holy city of Najaf, where heavy fighting raged earlier on Wednesday.

Shibani said: “The delegation came with three demands, including that the mehdi army hands (the security of) the old city to the suitable party…and that the Sadr movement participates in the political process.”

He added that the Sadr movement was ready to take part in the political process “if it is honest”.

“We discussed these points and 10 other points that had been discussed with (national security advisor) Muaffaq al-Rubaie, and our efforts were successful. The delegation went back satisfied,” he said.

But the government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was “blocking” any peaceful resolution of the crisis, he said.

“We are ready to meet the delegation anytime…we pledge to (organise) a meeting between Moqtada Sadr and the delegation” on the condition of “putting an end to the bombardment of the old city of Najaf and the end of the siege”, he said.

Isn’t that positively Bushista in it’s vagueness larded with conditions? It’s almost worthy of that old liar extraordinaire, Ariel Sharon.

The fierce fighting has threatened a peace initiative spearheaded by emissaries from Iraq’s key national conference, who travelled to the shrine late on Tuesday, only to be snubbed by Sadr who said “aggression by the Americans” had made it unsafe for him to appear.

Rajaa Habib al-Khuzai, a former member of Iraq’s former governing council, one of those who went to Najaf, said the head of the mission, Sheikh Hussein al-Sadr, would meet Allawi to ask for a ceasefire for a subsequent trip.

Khuzai also told Al-Jazeera: “All what Shibani said was true. The mediation did not fail. On the contrary, it was a success. The meeting was positive.”

She also denounced the threats by the defence minister of an imminent offensive, saying: “It is regrettable because there was an agreement this morning.”

So, now what? This looks like a clear win for Sadr and the Iraqis who opposed “Allawi’s” assault with his proxy American troops. The ball is in the Puppets’ court. Meanwhile, the American military is left in the ludicrous position of assaultus interruptus, again.

War photographers have added much immediate, undeniable information to our understanding of the way wars are promulgated. Carl Mydans was one such dedicated soul. He died Monday. His are some of the most famous WWII photos, including McArthur in ’45, and many, many other historic photos, which largely appeared in the pages of Life magazine.

Virtually all long-time Libertarians in the Bay Area knew Mike — I knew him for, good lord, almost 20 years, starting with working on the Russell Means’ libertarian presidential campaign, of all things. What I loved about Mike was how endlessly enthusiastic he was: “If people really understood, they’d certainly be for freedom.” “If people thought a little harder, they’d be more self-empowered.” “If people were a little more educated, they’d throw off the shackles of group think.” And he pretty much worked contstantly in support of these beliefs, even to the extent of writing a book on how to take charge of your own welfare in the emergency room when his health became more problematic. And I’ll greatly miss his humor and sense of other people: I had to laugh when I just reread the email he sent me on Justin’s birthday this past fall, reminding me of that fact: “I think Justin turns 52 today, (like me, Justin is finally playing with a full deck:-)). Justin shares his Birthday with Mickey Mouse who turned 75 today….” We’ll miss you, Mayakis! Who else do we have to help us keep things in perspective?

• “We will not leave the shrine until the Americans get out of Najaf. We will kill,” said Ugil Abdel Hussein, 32, a member of the Turkmen minority from the northern city of Kirkuk.
• Hundreds of tribesmen met inside the shrine and vowed their support. One of them called on all of Iraq’s tribes to hold a national conference Wednesday to end the Najaf crisis.

  “All Iraqi tribesmen are invited to try and end this bloodbath in Najaf,” said Sheikh Kassim Khafaji, addressing more than 100 tribesmen.

• “These people are a deterrent to the Americans because they are civilians. They are here so that the Americans won’t attack the Imam Ali shrine,” said Sheikh Ahmed Shaibani, a senior Mehdi Army commander and top aide to Sadr.
• “I will lie on the ground in front of the tanks, or I will kill the Americans to defend Sadr and Najaf,” said Fadil Hamed, 30, standing among a group of men who said they walked to Najaf from the southern city of Basra.

My best friend for the past 26 years died this evening. He was 54 and finally gave up his long battle with leukemia. I saw him yesterday and he was in so much pain. I am glad that pain is gone, but very sad that Mike is gone.

Some of you knew Mike. Without Mike, there would be no Antiwar.com. I would have long ago given up political action if it weren’t for his constant prodding and pep talks.

Mike insisted I use my political time efficiently and get on the Web, urging me to secure the Antiwar.com domain back in 1995.

Mike gave me constant input and advice to help build Antiwar.com. He wrote one article for us, Superman vs. the War Party.

Mike was very active in the Libertarian Party, and held many positions and ran for office once or twice. His views on the LP are most notable in his "Turning Burnout Into Victory."

I love Mike and I will miss him so much.